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Börsipäev 3. mai

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  • Bin Ladeni surma rallist ei jäänud eile turgudel mitte midagi järgi, kui saadi aru, et majanduse seisukohast on tegu suhteliselt ebaolulise sündmusega. Plusspoolele ei suutnud indekseid upitada isegi uus raha, mis on varasematel kuudel aidanud esimeste päevade tõusude näol teha väga optimistlikke sissejuhatusi. Mõningast hirmu võis tekitada Euroopa keskpanga asepresident Vitor Constancio, kes oma eilses kõnes küll välistas Kreeka võla restruktureerimise, kuid võis sellega hoopis suurendada turuosaliste kahtlusi.

    Tänasest makrokalendrist võiks olulisemate uudistena välja tuua Suurbritannia aprillikuu töötleva tööstuse PMI avaldamise kell 11.30 ja USA tehaste tellimuste märtsi muutuse kell 17.00. Ühtlasi raporteerivad autotootjad päeva jooksul oma aprilli USA müüginumbreid.

    USA indeksite futuurid kauplevad hetkel 0,1-0,2% miinuspoolel
  • Suurbritannia PMI tootmisindeks langes eelmise kuu alla korrigeeritud 56,7 pealt 54,6 punktini aprillis. GBPUSD langenud 0,95% ja kaupleb 1,6500 tasemel.
  • Eurotsooni märtsikuu tootjahinnaindeks vastavalt ootustele 0,7% (M/M) ja aastases lõikes 6,7% vs oodatud 6,6%. Euro on oma päevasest põhjast pisut kosumas, kaubeldes 0,15% madalamal $1,4806 juures.
  • Homme on oodata USA börsile Hiina Facebooki ehk firmat nimega RenRen. Antud ettevõtte on Hiina suurim sotsiaalvõrgustik koos 117 miljoni registreeritud kasutajaga, alustab kauplemist RENN sümboli all ning on kõige esimene sotsiaalmeedia firma, mis börsile tuleb.
    Buisness Insider kirjutab, et RENN-i valuatsioon on küll äärmiselt kõrge, aga investorid eeldavadki, et Hiina internetiaktsiad on kallid ja üks fondijuht võtab investorite üldise suhtumise kokku järgmise lausega: " Inimesed ostavad seda aktsiat, vaatamata selle kõrgele valuatsioonile.
  • Gapping up
    In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: CGNX +12.3%, KLIC +11.8%, AEIS +11% (utility solar inverters selected for 150 MW solar power plant by Zachry Industrial), SYKE +9.5%, BPI +7.2%, HLF +7.1%, DVA +5.8%, FE +5.8%, PCS +3.2%, HIG +2.9%, BGC +2.7%, CNO +2.4%, ALVR +2.4% (ticking higher), FMC +1.7%, KFN +0.8%, (light volume).

    Other news: LEE +12.4% (withdraws private offerings of senior secured notes and common stock), FRPT +9.8% (receives $106.9 mln contract), DSCO +8.5% (Discovery Labs' Aerosolized KL4 Surfactant Significantly Improves Lung Function and Survival in Established Model of Acute Lung Injury), EBS +4.7% (announces that it has signed a modification to its current procurement contract with the U.S. government to supply an additional 3.42 million doses of BioThrax), CTIC +4% ( to re-submit Pixantrone NDA in consideration for accelerated approval in accordance with guidance from FDA's Office of New Drugs), SCSS +3.8% (will replace Tollgrade Communications in SP600), CRUS +3.8% (will replace Epicor Software in SP600), OXGN +2.2% (continued strength).

    Analyst comments: AVL +2.8% (initiated with a Buy at Dahlman Rose), MCP +2.1% (target raised to $125 at Dahlman Rose), REE +1.5% (initiated with a Buy at Dahlman Rose), GM +1.4% (upgraded to Buy from Neutral at UBS), ACI +1.2% (upgraded to Buy from Hold at Brean Murray).
  • Gapping down
    In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: IVAC -22.7%, PRXL -20.9%, TAP -9.3%, FN -9.1% (light volume), ANAD -8.9%, CSC -8.1%, FWLT -6.3%, NETL -6%, SHLD -5%, GLDD -5% (light volume), LPSN -4.5%, ADM -4.1%, RDC -3.8%, CTSH -3.7%, CHK -3.6%, BZH -3.5%, TXRH -3.4%, ATSG -3.1% (light volume), CLX -2.2%, PFE -1.7%.

    Select metals/mining stocks trading lower: AG -1.7%, BHP -1.5%, BBL -1.4%, SLW -0.8%, RIO -0.7%.

    Select oil/gas related names showing early weakness: STO -2.6%, TOT -1.3%, RDS.A -1.1%, BP -0.9%, E -0.8%.

    Other news: COOL -17.1% (files $30 mln mixed securities shelf offering ), ALXA -9.2% (prices $16.1 million registered direct offering), YRCW -6.0% (Fitch downgrades YRC Worldwide's IDR to 'C' and Withdraws Ratings), MG -4% (announces commencement of a common stock offering of 3.26 mln shares), OC -2.6% (announced that stockholder Owens Corning/Fibreboard Asbestos Personal Injury Trust agreed to sell 7 mln shares of its common stock to BofA Merrill Lynch and J.P. Morgan), ARMH -2.4% (checking for anything specific), ROC -2.2% (announces agreement to sell 8 mln shares of common stock by stockholders), VOD -2.2% (still checking), NBS -2.1% (filed for a ~19.07 mln share common stock offering by selling shareholders).

    Analyst comments: BWP -1.2% (downgraded to Underperform from Market Perform at Raymond James ), VZ -0.5% (downgraded to Reduce from Neutral at Citadel).
  • Keeping a Finger on the Ejection Button
    By Rev Shark
    RealMoney.com Contributor
    5/3/2011 8:23 AM EDT

    "The wise adapt themselves to circumstances, as water molds itself to the pitcher." --Chinese Proverb

    Monday was a classic "good news reversal" as the initial euphoria over the death of Osama bin Laden was used as an opportunity to lock in gains. The market had run straight up for eight days in a row, so it was extended and ripe for some selling. The headlines and the breathless excitement of the media over something that had limited long-term stock market impact turned out to be little more than a good invitation to do some selling.

    The issue now is what sort of downside follow-through there might be. The action is soft again this morning and market players are a little skittish after the steady selling and poor close yesterday. Overseas markets are mostly red as India boosted interest rates more than expected to battle inflation and commodity and crude oil are soft on concerns about slowing growth.

    The obvious question to ponder is whether the market is in the process of topping out. The old saying, "Sell in May and go away," suggests that this is the time of year to look for the market to lose steam, but this market has surprised us so many times with its very stubborn upside momentum that it is very dangerous to be prematurely bearish.

    The worst possible approach since the low over two years ago has been to try to call a top. It is tempting to try because the market seems to be overbought and extended so often, and with plenty of negative news. But for a variety of reasons we have consistently kept running up much longer than most folks would consider reasonable.

    My approach to dealing with this market has been to try to avoid anticipating tops, but that doesn't mean that I buy extended charts. That often leaves me underinvested when the market makes one of these straight-up moves, but that is the risk I take if I use a disciplined trading methodology.

    So should we be ready to hit the eject button and go all to cash at this point? We are finally seeing some weakness and that means we need to react and take steps to protect our capital, but it is still very early. A couple weak days may be nothing more than some healthy consolidation that sets us up for another leg higher, but we do want to make sure we tighten up defenses and don't let things slip too much should the selling start to accelerate.

    The market had become so extended over the last couple weeks that I was becoming quite frustrated with my ability to find good entry points, so I can't say I'm disappointed to see some softness. There will be better trading opportunities if we are hitting with some selling. If nothing else, market weakness helps to separate the better stocks from those that are just riding a rising tide.

    It is time for a little patience and little watchfulness to see how this weakness plays out. There is no reason to panic sell but there isn't any reason to rush in and buy either. The market is going to guide us; at the moment it is telling us to be careful while it figures out what it going to do.
  • Reuters kirjutab, et Kreeka peab võla restruktureerimist riigile katastroofiliseks sündmuseks, kuigi turgudel peetakse seda stsenaariumit aina tõenäolisemaks.
    A year and a day since the EU and IMF agreed to extend Greece 110 billion euros ($163 billion) in loans in exchange for deep structural adjustments to its economy, the finance minister again dismissed growing suggestions that Athens will have to restructure its debts, which are set to hit 150 percent of annual output, or around 340 billion euros, this year.

    "A restructuring, haircuts on debt, would be a huge mistake for the country," Finance Minister George Papaconstantinou told state television as EU and IMF inspectors began a new visit to assess if the government's austerity plans are sufficient.

    "It would have a very big cost and we would not have the benefit, we would stay out of markets for 10-15 years, the wealth of Greek pension funds would suffer writedowns, we would have problems in the banking system and hence the real economy."

    Kreeka 10-aastase võlakirja tulusus on 27. aprilli tipust 15,99% tasemelt veidi taandunud, asudes täna 14,986% juures.
  • Mulle meeldib lause: 'Greek pension funds would suffer writedowns'. Võlg kaupleb juba tükk aega oluliselt alla nominaali aga tõesti ei imestaks kui Kreeka pinsifondid on tüütust varade ümberhindamise kohustusest tõepoolest vabastatud.
  • Äkki on viimaks ometi efektiivsust tõstnud, pool backoffice't lahti lasknud ning jooksvast NAV-i arvutamisest kui mõttetust tegevusest, lihtsalt loobunud. Elame niigi info ülekülluse tingimustes.
  • March Factory Orders +3.0% vs +1.8% Briefing.com consensus
  • The Fed purchased $7.68 bln of 2016-2018 maturities through Permanent Open Market Operations as dealers looked to put back $19.96 bln
  • General Motors (GM) müük tõusis aprillis 26%, mis viitab sellele, et firma Jaapanis toimunud südmustest siiski üsna puutumata jäi. Täna on aktsia ka üsna tugevas plussis kauplemas (+2,5%) ja suuna andis tõenäoliselt GM-le kätte UBS-i täna hommikul antud upgrade
  • Majanduslanguse ajal kõige valusamini pihta saanud luksuskaupade segment naudib nüüd kaks aastat hiljem edu sellisel määral nagu halbu aegu poelks olnudki.
    Wall Street Journal kirjutab, et hiinlased on kõige suuremad luksuskaupade ihalejad, tuues endaga kaasa plahvatuslikult suurenenud nõudluse ning käesoleval aastal oodatakse kasvu koguni 25% (kogu maailmas 8%).
    Aasta on saanud hoogsa alguse ning USA luksuskaupade kaubamaja Saks CEO sõnul on tunda juba mitu viimast kvartalit, et tarbijate ostueelistuste trend liigub luksuskaupadele soodsas suunas.
  • Päevasiseselt on Wedbush DNDN aktsia reitingut alandanud Hoia pealt Müü peale ning hinnasihti kärpinud $ 39 pealt $ 28 peale. Meeldetuletuseks olgu öeldud, et eile alustas samuti Müü reitinguga DNDN katmist Credit Suisse.
    DNDN kaupleb hetkel 4,25% miinuspoolel ($ 40,57).
  • Kurikuulus Citron Research on jälle hoos ning ründab järjekordset Hiina ettevõtet. Tänaseks ohvriks on Sky-Mobi (MOBI), mis tegeleb erinevate mängude ja rakenduste müügiga low-end telefonidele. Citron Research väidab,et aktsiatõus on täiesti alusetu ning ettevõte on teinud kõik selleks, et peita investorite eest oma hääbuvat ärimudelit, kuna firmal puudub igasugune kokkupuude nutitelefonide äriga, aga turgu on domineerimas just viimati nimetatud.
    Pikemalt on analüüs MOBI kohta loetav siin, aga lühidalt kokkuvõttes usuvad analüütikud, et MOBI aktsia pole rohkem väärt kui $ 3.

    Hetkel kaupleb MOBI juba ligi 23% miinuspoolel ($ 13,22).

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