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Börsipäev 10. august

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  • FOMC statement tekitas eile USA turgudel kahetisi tundeid. Esmalt reageeriti sõnumile, et majanduskasv jääb edaspidi oodatust kesisemaks ning see on tingitud mitte ainult ühekordsetest teguritest (Jaapani kriis, energiahinnad) vaid ka fundamentaalsetest põhjustest. Ent intressimäärade hoidmine nulli lähedal veel kaks aastat, inflatsiooni nähakse jäämas järgmiste kvartalite jooksul FEDi ootuste lähedale või alla selle ning komitee jätkab täiendavate majanduskasvu stimuleerivate meetmete rakendamise kaalumist, aitas turgudel sooritada viimasel tunnil võimsa ralli, kui saadi aru, et uks on võimalusteks rohkem lahti kui võib-olla esialgu arvati. Targemaks võime selles osas saada 26. augustil, kui Bernanke peab Jackson Hole’s kõne.

    Täna jätkatakse ilmselt FOMC sõnumi seedimist, kaaludes ühest küljest nõrgeneva majanduskasvu väljavaadet ning teisalt seda, kuidas intressimäärade nõnda kaua nõnda madalal hoidmine võiks majandust aidata. Oma inflatsiooniraporti avaldab täna Inglise keskpank (12.30), kellelt oodatakse majanduskasvu väljavaadete langetamist ning inflatsiooniootuste tõstmist. USA avaldatakse kell 17.00 hulgimüügi varud ja kell üheksa õhtul valitsuse eelarve juulikuu defitsiidi suurus, ent need on pigem madalama järgu uudised.

    USA indeksite futuurid on vajunud hetkel päeva põhjade juurde (-0,6%), Euroopa on aga avanemas 0,5-0,6% kõrgemal.
  • Goldman Sachs avaldas täna hommikul raporti, mis kandis nimetust "QE3 Now Our Base Case". Majandusanalüütikud kirjutavad, et nemad prognoosivad uue nii-öelda kvantitatiivse lõdvendamise programmi tõenäosuseks ca 33%. Põhjuseks on USA majanduse prognoositust madalam kasv ning kõrge töötusmäär, mille kohta Fed ka eile negatiivseid kommentaare jagas.

    FOMC peamised teemad võetakse kokku järgnevalt:

    1. As expected, the statement included a significant downgrade of the economic outlook. The committee views growth as having been "considerably slower" than expected, highlighting "deterioration in overall labor market conditions," "flattened out" household spending and that the supply chain disruptions can "account for only some of the recent weakness in economic activity."The committee furthermore stresses that "downside risks to the economic outlook have increased."

    2. The committee adopted an even easier policy stance than expected. First, the committee now anticipates that economic conditions are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate "at least through mid-2013" instead of "for an extended period." Although some form of strengthening of the guidance language was expected and the new guidance remains conditional on the economic outlook, we see this step as a dovish surprise. Three members--Fisher, Kocherlakota and Plosser--dissented from this decision, the largest number of dissents since November 1992.

    3. Moreover, the committee effectively signaled an easing bias saying that it discussed "the range of policy tools necessary to promote a stronger economic recovery" and that it "is prepared to employ these tools as appropriate." In our view, this leaves open the possibility of further asset purchases ("QE3") should the economic outlook deteriorate further from here.
  • Marc Faberilt taas häid ja huvitavaid mõtteid Bloombergi video vahendusel

    "The only thing I have to say, basically the market has sold off in such a rapid way and with so much momentum that I am smelling as if something really wrong happens in the next two or three months, because the market is a discounting mechanism. Like March 2009 the market started to go up and people were baffled why it started to go up. Now it starts to go down, and maybe after three months people will wake up and scratch their heads and say now, we know why it started to go down, because maybe there is geo political problems, maybe the Middle East blows up, maybe the economy is horrible."
  • Briefing.com vahendusel:

    MBA Mortgage Applications of +22.7% vs +7.1% Prior
  • Jefferies tõstab täna First Solar (FSLR)-i reitingut Hoia pealt Osta peale ja hinnasihi $ 115 pealt $ 132 peale.

    In our opinion FSLR is now the most defensive name in solar as risks to its 2H have moderated. We see positive risk/reward using a conservative Sum-of-the- Parts valuation sanity check, and upgrade to BUY from Hold with a new $132 PT. We note an upward bias to PT on potential identified catalysts.

    Analüütikud usuvad, et solarite sektoris on FSLR kõige turvalisem investeering, kuna riskid on teiseks poolaastaks vähenenud ning riski/kasumi suhe on oluliselt paranenud.

    FSLR is the most defensive solar stock:
    Bankability concerns favour FSLR: FSLR has the best balance sheet and liquidity in the industry at a time when bankability/warranty default risk has become more critical to secure project financing; Tier 1 suppliers are gaining share while higher cost Tier 2/3 suppliers are balance sheet challenged.
    FSLR retains the lowest module cost structure WW and lowest cost of capital on projects: Its financing risk is low thanks to DOE guarantees.

    FSLR-l on sektoris kõige tugevam bilanss, arvestades seda, et projektide rahastamine on muutunud üha kriitilisemaks teemaks.Lisaks eelnevale on ka firmal madalaim moodulite kulustruktuur ja ettevõtte finantseerimiskulud on madalad tänu DEO (Department of Eenergy) garantiile.

    Less reliant on third party sales: FSLR earnings in 2H and '12 are driven mostly by its captive projects, and it is less reliant on merchant module sales to 3rd parties.
    Risks to 2H estimates have moderated, given: With reset guidance, we believe management has appropriately factored in $1.15-1.20/W c-si pricing by 4Q into guidance; yet FSLR will post higher blended ASP in 2H thanks to module prices attained on its own projects.
    Industry more stable: Our channel checks and public comments from peers indicate Tier 1 Chinese prices have mostly stabilized for 4Q with quoting activity at $1.20/w (+/-). Demand in Aug was slightly higher m/m with anticipation of substantially stronger Sept.

    Võttes arvesse firma enda prognoose, usuvad analüütikud,et ettevõte on juba arvestanud madalamate hindadega ning turu-uuringu näitavad teiseks poolaastaks teatavat hindade stabiliseerumist.

    Nagu teada, siis alternatiivenergia sektor on olnud üks nõrgim sektor turul üldse ja koos teistega on ka konkurentidest tugevamaks peetud ettevõte-FSLR-i aktsia samuti alla müüdud. Jefferies pole esimene analüüsimaja, kes FSLR teistest kõrgemale tõstab. Kui turg toetab, siis FSLR võiks täna ostuhuvi tekitada.

    Eelturul kaupleb aktsia $ 102,30 kandis, 2,6% kõrgemal.

  • Gapping down
    In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: MOTR -52.3%, CNIT -10.4% (ticking lower), ASYS -10.3%, PTNR -7.8%, DIS -3.1% (also downgraded to Hold at Wunderlich), SPWRA -2.6% (ticking lower).

    A few miners trading modestly lower include: MT -4.3%, RIO -2.8%, BBL -1.8%.

    Other news: ANX -55.9% (reports that the FDA did not approve Exelbine NDA), NWSA -3.4% (ticking lower with DIS).

    Analyst comments: PMT -2.6% (ticking lower, downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Keefe Bruyette), FII -2.1% (downgraded to Sell from Hold at Citigroup), SPLS -1.6%, HD -1.4% and LOW -0.9% (all downgraded to Hold from Buy at Jefferies).
  • Gapping up
    In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: VTSS +19.5% (light volume), DMD +16.9%, (Demand Media and Google (GOOG) renew and expand global advertising relationship through new three-year agreement), SMT +14.6%, CREE +10.3%, RL +8.5%, MBI +5.2%, SBLK +5%, NUAN +4.5%, M +4% (light volume), EVEP +3.5% (light volume), HRBN +1.9%, HEK +0.7%, AERL +0.6%.

    Select gold/silver related names showing strength: DROOY +2.7%, SLW +1.7% AU +1.5%, NEM +1.1% (upgraded to Buy at Stifel Nicolaus), AUY +0.8%... Rare earth names also ticking higher: MCP +3.9% and REE +3.1%.

    Other news: SUN +3.2% (announced $500 mln share repurchase authorization), QGEN +2.4% (the Supreme Court of Victoria has approved QIAGEN's acquisition of all of the ordinary shares in Cellestis shares), CLNE +2.1% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney), ABB +1.8% (still checking), COF +1.1% (to acquire HBC domestic credit card business for premium of ~$2.6 bln; anticipated high-teens GAAP and operating EPS accretion in 2013), UNP +0.9% and ED +0.2% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney).

    Analyst comments: OPEN +4.2% (upgraded to Buy from Hold at Citigroup), FSLR +2.6% (upgraded to Buy from Hold at Jefferies), EOG +1.1% (upgraded to Buy from Hold at Ticonderoga), VMW +1.1% (upgraded to Outperform from Mkt Perform at FBR Capital), CSCO +0.6% (upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Gleacher), LVS +0.5% (upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Lazard).
  • What Have You Done for me Lately?
    By Rev Shark
    RealMoney.com Contributor
    8/10/2011 8:42 AM EDT

    "We now see a greater-than-even chance that the FOMC will resume quantitative easing later this year or in early 2012."
    --Jan Hatzius, Goldman Sachs' chief U.S. economist.

    Following yesterday's Federal Open Market Committee interest-rate decision, the market initially sold-off, then regrouped and blasted straight up for the last 90 minutes of trading. Some attributed the strong finish to the "good" news that interest rates will stay low for another two years while others believed it was the Goldman Sachs (GS) statement above about the likelihood of more quantitative easing that brought in the buyers.

    While the FOMC news provided a convenient headline for the business media, the big move probably was more a function of the recent volatility, oversold conditions, over-aggressive bears, high-frequency trading and dysfunctional market. This market has been trading in such chaotic fashion that it really isn't surprising it would find an excuse to rip higher suddenly, just when it looked like it was going to break down again.

    This morning, the machines have yet to be programmed and cooler heads are contemplating what the FOMC decision really means. One negative spin on the news is that if the Fed can guarantee interest rates are going to stay low, then it must be confident that the economy is not going to improve any time soon. The Fed definitely has revised its economic projections to the downside, which may be good as far as some potential monetary action but makes it clear we have some major economic challenges. If the Fed failed to boost us with all it's done already, why should we be confident that its efforts will be more effective this time?

    For market players the big question now is whether the Fed news has helped to put a bottom in this market. Was that vicious snapback late yesterday the turn that scares off the bears and give the bulls enough confidence to support this market, or was it just a trap for the optimists who want to believe that the worst is behind us?

    I wish I could answer that question simply, but there isn't enough evidence one way or the other. It is just as likely that this was a routine oversold bounce that will fail as it was a capitulation low that will hold. It is pretty much a coin flip and it is tough to make money betting with these odds.

    I realize that some readers think market pundits should be making predictions about market direction and declaring that the bottom is in or another down leg is coming, but I just don't find that a very good way to approach the market. My style is reactive, and I want to stay flexible and open minded as things develop. I have no qualms about admitting that I don't know which way this market is going to go. I'll have some trades going one way or the other, but it will all depend on what happens next.

    My reactive style worked extremely well the past couple weeks as it kept me on the sidelines while I waited for some better price action. If you have avoided trying to call a market bottom recently, you are probably far ahead of the game even after that stunning spike higher at the close yesterday.

    I'm going to continue to stay reactive and, unfortunately, the close yesterday wasn't enough to convince me that it is clear sailing to the upside from here. It was an oversold bounce driven by the factors mentioned above. It may be the first step in putting a bottom in this market, but one big spike up is just not enough information to give us a high level of confidence that our troubles are over.

    My approach here will be to see how much support this market has now. If the bulls are ready to go back to work, we should have some aggressive dip buying and pullbacks should be contained. On the other hand, if market players are looking for exits into strength and we don't see any pockets of momentum developing, then the danger that we roll over is very high.

    It is soft out there in the early going. We'll see what the buyers do after we open, but this market is still very unstable and there is lots of nervousness. The risk that we roll over again is high. So keep those stops tight and don't forget to play defense.
  • Tänane turg on olnud kõike muud, kui upgrade`e toetav, aga sellegipoolest peab ütlema, et FSLR on selles müügipaanikas üsna hästi hoidnud. Aktsia avanes $ 100,68 pealt ja peale avanemist kukkus $ 97,50 taseme juurde tagasi ning tegi seal kiire põrke $ 101,50 juurde. Hetkel kaupleb aktsia $ 100,40 kandis ehk 0,6% plusspoolel.

  • CSCO - üle tüki aja guido ei ole peetis. Seda kehva makroga, konkurentide peetis tulemustega.... Cost cutting on samuti 2012 teema... peaks homme buy olema.

    Olen tähele pannud, et vähemalt tulemuste päeval mikro korraks makro seljatab praegusel ajal :)
  • CSCO müüdud, avg 15.45. Mulle ilgelt see situatsioon meeldib, aga ei taha datasse siiski jääda.
  • Ei, hommikul ikka. Näeks mingi +15% täna küll (aga see kuradi makro on tõsihaige). +2% kopikatega jõudnud -1% välja.

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