Börsipäev 19. august - Investeerimine - Foorum - LHV finantsportaal

LHV finantsportaal

Foorum Investeerimine

Börsipäev 19. august

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  • Taaskord tugev risk-off kauplemine globaalsetel börsidel, kui ühest küljest hirmutab investoreid makro halvenemine ja teisest küljest taastunud hirm Euroopa pankade pärast, kui uudiste kohaselt oli EKP sunnitud ühele Euroopa pangale andma 0,5 miljardit dollarit lühiajalist laenu (viimati kasutati seda võimalust veebruaris). Finantssektor oli seetõttu langejate seas esirinnas, kuid väga palju ei jäänud maha ka tsüklilised sektorid. VIX rallis 35% 42,7 peale, kuld kaupleb hetkel 1850 dollari juures, nafta 80 barreli peal ja USA valitsuse 10.a yield vajus alla 2% - esimest korda vähemalt kuni aastast 1954.

    Võiks ju argumenteerida, et ettevõtete bilansid on paremas seisus võrreldes 2008.a ning tarbijad kasutanud viimaseid aastaid võlakoorma vähendamiseks, siis halvenevas majanduskeskkonnas jätkatakse tõenäoliselt raha säästmist ning võlgade tagasimaksmist, kuni varade hinnad on jälle piisavalt atraktiivseks muutnud. Juhul kui arenevaid riike peaks tabama uus majanduslangus, siis eelarvete ja võlakoorma kärpimisi planeerivad valitsused ähvardavad olukorda süvendada ning see ei jäta puutumata ka arenevaid majandusi.

    Selliste müükide järel on alati võimalus lühiajalisteks põrgeteks turul, ent halvenev makropilt ja negatiivsed uudised Euroopa pangandussektorist hoiavad edasi allapoole liikumise riski üleval.

    Täna ühtegi olulist makrot oodata ei ole ning eks näis kas turud võiksid seda vaadata kui häid uudiseid.

    USA indeksite futuurid kauplevad hetkel 0,9% madalamal, Euroopa on avanemas 1% jagu punases.
  • Kui turgude sentiment viitaks investorite äärmiselt negatiivsele meelestatusele, siis tegelikkuses kasvas USA väikeinvestorite optimism aktsiaturgude järgmise kuue kuu perspektiivi osas 2,1 protsendipunkti võrra 35,6% peale, mis on teine järjestikuline tõusunädal. Negatiivse sentimendi osakaal kahanes 5 protsendipunkti võrra 39,8% peale. Kuigi optimism on kasvanud, siis suurem osa investoritest usub siiski veel aktsiaturgude edasisse langusse.
  • Foot Locker Inc (FL)
    Reports Q2 (Jul) earnings of $0.24 per share, $0.12 better than the Capital IQ Consensus Estimate of $0.12; revenues rose 16.3% year/year to $1.27 bln vs the $1.18 bln consensus.
  • Gapping up
    In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: MRVL +9.9%, INTU +7.7% (also upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at First Analysis), YGE +5.8%, CRM +5.2%, SGI +4.8% (ticking higher), ADSK +3.7%, MENT +3.6%, SCSC +3% (ticking higher), BRCD +2.1%, FL +1.5%.

    M&A news: CLWR +17.3% (Sprint and cable company discussions spurring CLWR acquisition speculation, according to report).

    Select mortgage related names ticking higher: RDN +9.4%, PMI +5.9%, MTG +4.1%.

    Select gold/silver/metals stocks trading higher: AG +4.0%, SLV 3.4%, HL +3.0%, SLW +2.4%, NEM +2.2%, GG +2.1%, KGC +2.1%, ABX +2.0%, GLD +1.8%, GOLD +1.7%, AU +1.4%, AUY +1.1%, JAG +0.6%.

    Other news: SODA +4.3% (SODA exec appeared on MadMoney, following yesterday speculation of appearance), ARMH +3.4% (upgraded to Buy at Numis, according to CNBC.com), CLX +1.9% (Icahn discloses intent to nominate 11 to the Board of Directors in amended 13D filing).
  • Mis peet selle HPQ-ga oli, keegi oskab seletada? $60+B langetab tulevasi numbreid, hakkab ümber struktureerima, ostab sisse mingi $10B eest ning kogu kompoti peale stock ei kuku. Täna hommikuks on saabunud valgustus ning stock kaupleb closest viis punkti allpool? Maailm on kumminaine või mis?

  • Kõik tegelesid arvutamisega. Need, kes leidsid midagi positiivset, ostsid ( vältis langust ).
    Öösel vaadati numbrid uuesti üle, parandati vead ja hakati müüma. :)
    Kas LHV ka midagi kommenteerib? Mida nüüd edasi teha?
  • Pikema analüüsi HPQ tulemuste kohta avaldame järgmisel nädalal LHV PRO all.
  • Gapping down
    In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: LDK -20.1%, (also downgraded to Hold from Buy at ThinkEquity and downgraded to Neutral at Piper), HPQ -16%, (reported intraday with conference call was after the close; confirmed it will acquire Autonomy; downgraded to Underperform from Outperform at Credit Agricole, downgraded to Sell from Hold at Deutsche Bank), ARO -11.1%, NDSN -10.4%, OPLK -9.2%.

    M&A related: SCG -2% (comments on unusual activity - CEO said rumors regarding sale of company are 'false').

    Select financial related names showing weakness: LYG -5.1%, SNV -4.4%, RBS -4.4%, STD -4.3%, DB -3%, BCS -2.6%, BAC -1.7%, HBC -0.7%, CS -0.6%, UBS -0.2%.

    Select mining related names are under pressure: MT -3%, RIO -2%, BBL -1.8%, BHP -1.5%.

    Select oil/gas related names showing early weakness: RDS.A -2.2%, VLO -1.9%, TOT -1.4%, RIG -1.4%, BP -0.8%.

    Other news: SPPI -4.5% (still checking), CCL -4.5% and RCL -4.3% (traded lower overseas).
  • Trading in a Bad Market
    By James "Rev Shark" DePorre
    Aug 19, 2011

    "A champion is afraid of losing. Everyone else is afraid of winning."

    --Billie Jean King

    When it comes to dealing with a bad market, my guiding principle is it's more important not to lose money than it is to make money. My goal is to try to keep my portfolio as close to its highs as possible. That generally means getting out of the way of a downtrend and staying there until the smoke clears.

    The primary reason for my approach is that I have found it so extremely unproductive to make up losses. If you lose 20% of your capital you need to produce a gain of 25% just to return to even, and it gets worse the more money you lose. If you are down 50%, you need to double your money to make up your losses.

    That is a tremendous amount of work to produce no return, but folks set up that dynamic for themselves all the time by riding stocks down in a downtrending market. One of the big, and very questionable reasons, that investors do that is because they are more focused on relative returns than on absolute returns.

    In the perverse world of money management, it is considered better to lose money and beat the indices than to make money and lag them. This thinking is a function of the idea that stocks are just another asset class and not the sole vehicle for managing wealth. As long as you allocate your assets properly to various asset classes the only important thing is that your stock-market returns beat the market. Your other asset classes will make up for it, so that is how modern money management has developed.

    As an individual investor, I find it much more productive to focus solely on absolute returns and to forget how I perform relative to the indices. I want to make as much money as possible regardless of how the market acts. Ironically, this also turns out to be the best way to produce relative outperformance as well, because of how it helps to avoid the problem of having to make up losses in a bad market.

    Another reason so many market players rack up sizable losses in a downtrending market is they focus way too much on trying to catch the bottom. This is one of my pet peeves about traditional Wall Street and market pundits. They focus endlessly on trying to predict when a bad market will turn back up and spend almost no time on ways to avoid losses.

    I guarantee that you will hear dozens of market "experts" say today that the bottom is near and you should be buying. They may be right this time, but I bet these are the same folks who were saying the same thing last week, last month and last year. If you really listened to the advice of these folks, you would always be fully invested anyway, so you’d have no capital to put to work when in a free-fall like this. I strongly believe that the focus on bottom calling results in more market underperformance.

    When I look at the market I see a very ugly collapse and, unlike the folks in the media, my first thought isn’t "Is this the bottom?" but "How do I keep from losing money?"

    The reasons behind this market collapse don't really matter. In fact, it can be better to simply respect the price action and stay out of the way rather than to look for fundamental justifications to hurry up and buy. The problem is that the sovereign debt issue in Europe is becoming worse and the economy in the U.S. is slowing far more than expected. A poor economy and too much debt aren’t very supportive of stocks.

    The bulls are hoping that the economic meeting at Jackson Hole, Wyo., in a week or so will produce an announcement of another round of quantitative easing, like it did last year. But there are plenty of skeptics, and many folks don’t think it will help much at this point.

    The open this morning is ugly enough that we may see some capitulation selling. I’m expecting bounce buyers to try early, but the key will be holding the early lows. We did not hold them yesterday and that kept the pressure on all day.

    My focus is to have a shopping list but not do much until the price action improves. I’m more concerned about not losing money than I am about making it right now. When the market acts better I’ll focus on good trades and, hopefully, by avoiding losses I’ll be so far ahead of the game that I can take my time and be selective.
  • Jaapani jeenil dollari vastu uus ajalooline tipp Y75,96 tasemel.
  • FT Alphaville vahendab Reutersi graafikut, kus võrreldakse Apple'i ja eurotsooni pankade turuväärtust:

    Yup. Apple is almost the same size as entire eurozone banking sector – as measured by the Euro Stoxx banks index, which has 32 constituents.

    We’re not sure what, if anything, this means. Is Apple overvalued?Are Europe’s banks undervalued? Both, neither, or something else?

    Actually here’s another way of thinking about things. Apple could buy both SocGen and Credit Agricole (at a 30 per cent premium to their current market value) and still have some change left over from its $76bn cash pile.

    Apple to buy Soc Gen. Now there’s a rumour.
  • Erko Rebane
    Kui turgude sentiment viitaks investorite äärmiselt negatiivsele meelestatusele, siis tegelikkuses kasvas USA väikeinvestorite optimism aktsiaturgude järgmise kuue kuu perspektiivi osas 2,1 protsendipunkti võrra 35,6% peale, mis on teine järjestikuline tõusunädal. Negatiivse sentimendi osakaal kahanes 5 protsendipunkti võrra 39,8% peale. Kuigi optimism on kasvanud, siis suurem osa investoritest usub siiski veel aktsiaturgude edasisse langusse.

    AAII-d loetakse üldiselt dumb money-ks. St. AAII sentimendiindikaatoreid tuleb vaadelda contrarian näitajatena. :)
  • Päris huvitav lugemine Business Insideri vahendusel Moody`s-e endiselt vanemanalüütikult William J. Harringtonilt, kes on avalikkuse ette toonud pildi tegelikust olukorrast reitinguagentuuris ning selle, kui suurt rolli mängisid reitinguagentuurid kolm aastat tagasi aset leidnud kinnisvaramulli lõhkemises. Harrington juhib tähelepanu pidevale huvide konfliktile, mis reitinguagentuuril seoses oma klientidega on, sest agentuuri sissetulek sõltub nendest samadest pankadest ja firmadest, milledele objektiivne hinnang peaks antama. Tema sõnul ongi see huvide konflikt Moody`se tegevuses määrav tegur, sest kõik analüütikud, kes ei anna klientidele soovitud reitingut, kahjustavad nii öelda firma huve ning lastakse lõpuks lahti. Sellest tulenevalt peab Harrington agentuuri reitinguid parimal juhul kasututeks ja halvimal juhul isegi kahjulikeks.
  • Bird and Fortune "Silly Money" episood 1 kirjeldab sama veidi reedeõhtusemas teostuses :)

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