Ciao Italia! Che piacere vederti! - Investeerimine - Foorum - LHV finantsportaal

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Ciao Italia! Che piacere vederti!

Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse

  • On aeg teha lahti kirstu kaas, mida mitte keegi pole julenud, aga teavad et see võib tulla. Et kas nüüd on käes? Ei, aga kaugel me enam oleme? FT Alphaville vahendusel on Citigroup Matt King'i artikkel Itaaliast ja Itaalia probleemidest, mis on nii Itaalia enda reformimiste probleemide kirjeldus kui ka faktorid, mis tänu GPap ja Kreeklaste võimetusele kokkuleppida ja edasi minna, mõjutavad juba Itaaliat.

    FT : Approaching the Italian endgame
    The Italian endgame is getting nearer and a crisis is “increasingly probable, and would do much to expose the inadequacies of the bailout mechanism as a whole”, warns Citigroup’s Matt King (he of the seminal “brokers are broken” thesis from 2008 that we put back together on Wednesday).

    He’s also worried that the new EFSF is too big and and too weak but these aren’t top of the worry list. Italy is. King notes that “BTPs have been close to these yields before; spread levels have not

    We are also quite close to the point beyond which other sovereigns have found it very difficult to return, when yields breach 6% (Figure 3). This is partly because feedback loops kick in and additional widening could easily accelerate. For example, if spreads of 450bp on 10-year governments are exceeded for five consecutive business days, LCH haircut requirements for banks borrowing against Italian collateral will rise by 15%. If banks liquidate their BTP holdings, this will simply exacerbate the problem. If instead they choose to seek funding at the ECB (for example, if they are running short of collateral), publicity around different countries’ banks’ usage of ECB facilities seems likely to lead to more selling in both the banks and the countries concerned. This is part of the reason why when Portuguese spreads breached this point, not only did the sovereign yield quite rapidly back up further, eventually breaching 10%, but the rating agencies followed up with sovereign and bank downgrades for good measure. Admittedly this was all part of Portugal’s losing access to markets and applying for a bail-out, but we see no reason why the feedback loops should operate any differently for Italy.
  • Itaalia sündmused, mis eelnesid G20 kohtumisele. Probleemiks oli see, et G20, eriti Merkozy, eeldasid Berlusconilt kinnitatud tegevusekava. Läks nagu alati - siseriiklikult mindi raksu ja ei jõutud kokkuleppele.

    Meenub kuu või poolteist tagasi FT tõlkelugu peal, kus räägitakse nagu Berlusconi oleks Euroopa liidrite seas üksik, teda kuhugi ei kutsuta ja keegi temaga ametlikel kohtumistel rääkida ei taha. Ainus, kelle juures on ta teretulnud on Putini juures. Seetõttu ta seal puhkamas ka käib.
    FT Brussel Live Blog @ 02.11.11

    10.35: Chris Adams, the FT’s markets editor, tweets about the Bank of Italy’s decision reportedly preparing an emergency operation to swap Italian debt held by domestic banks for pledge by them to buy more at longer maturities.
    11.00: Reverse ferret. The Bank of Italy has denied the bond swap operation report and will be issuing a statement shortly.
    19.25: To Rome, where Silvio Berlusconi has summoned his ministers for an emergency cabinet meeting to pass economic reforms which are supposed to be presented to the rest of the G20 leaders tomorrow. The FT’s Guy Dinmore reports:

    “Umberto Bossi, blunt talking leader of the Northern League and a key ally in Berlusconi’s coalition government, says there is ‘no point’ in calling for the prime minister’s resignation. ‘Berlusconi won’t do it,’ he told reporters. Asked what he thought about opposition demands for an emergency government headed by a respected technocrat like former European commissioner Mario Monti, Mr Bossi was reported to have given a ‘raspberry’ which can be an Italian euphemism for Mr Bossi’s middle finger.

    Last week Mr Bossi blocked moves by Mr Berlusconi’s People of Liberty party to reform the seniority pension system that allows workers to retire in their 50s if they have paid 40 years of contributions. Today he said such a move would ‘unleash a revolution’.

    Meanwhile the committee for safeguarding financial stability, chaired by Giulio Tremonti, finance minister, concluded that Italy’s economic fundamentals and the banking system were sound. Officials scotched media speculation that Italy was about to go cap in hand to the IMF for emergency loans. Mr Tremonti was among various politicians trooping up the hill of the Quirinale today to meet Giorgio Napolitano, president, fuelling yet more rumours that the minister’s constant battles with Mr Berlusconi had persuaded him to discuss the possibility of a change of government.”
    22.23 This just in from Guy Dinmore in Rome

    “Silvio Berlusconi failed on Wednesday night to overcome internal government divisions and push through immediate legislation on structural reforms ahead of Thursday’s summit of the Group of 20 leading economies.

    “Italy’s prime minister had hoped to have a decree agreed by the cabinet in his hands to take to Cannes and to calm markets that have pushed Italian bond yields close to euro-era highs. But government sources said disagreements between Giulio Tremonti, the finance minister who is insisting on fiscal discipline, and Mr Berlusconi who was backed by other ministers, prevented a deal being reached.”
  • 02.11.11 Ilmunud pikem ülevaade Itaalia keskpanga presidendilt Itaalia majanduse seisust ja tulevikuvaatest.
    16.30: Guy Dinmore reports from Rome that Ignazio Visco, the new head of the Bank of Italy, has urged Silvio Berlusconi’s government to honour its commitments to the European Union by reducing high levels of public debt and introducing structural reforms “consistently and rapidly”.

    “To regain investors’ confidence and achieve the lasting reduction of sovereign risk, to preserve the stability of the financial system, it is necessary to proceed resolutely with the consolidation of the public finances. With equal determination, the impediments to a sustained growth of the economy must be removed,” Mr Visco says.

    Mr Visco’s first major statement as governor, contained in the central bank’s latest Financial Stability report, was issued as Mr Berlusconi’s cabinet prepared to hold an emergency session to draw up legislation on reforms. The Italian prime minister is to present his plans to the G20 summit in Cannes tomorrow.

    While noting the significant increase in Italy’s sovereign spreads, Mr Visco points to strengths in the Italian economy, including “the trend towards the consolidation of the public accounts, the low level of private sector debt, the absence of imbalances in the real-estate market, and limited foreign debt.”

    The rise in Italian bond yields “does not appear to take full account of the strengths of the Italian economy”, the report says. However it notes that a significant amount of government bonds mature in the first four months of next year, with a graph indicating a total of about 150bn euros.

    The report says that if Italy meets its fiscal consolidation targets then the debt to GDP ratio should fall or stabilise “even if interest rates on government securities were to undergo significant increases.” However it does not define “significant”, with the report written before the recent spike in yields on Italy’s benchmark 10-year bond over 6.1 per cent.

    The report warns that Italian companies are experiencing weakening economic activity with business surveys pointing to further declines and a worsening of terms for access to credit. “If these expectations materialize, the financial condition of many firms could worsen in 2012,” the report says.

    On Italian banks it noted that their exposure to Greece, Portugal and Ireland is “very low” in securities and CDS markets. Italian banks have reduced their foreign exposure and shifted towards central and eastern Europe, it says. “Banks’ profitability is stable,
    but the prospects are clouded by developments in the real economy and the strains in the financial markets. The containment of costs will have to play a key role in recouping profitability.”

    On Italy’s debt outside the public sector, the report notes that the total financial debt of households and non-financial firms amounted to 126 per cent of GDP at the end of 2010, compared with 168 per cent in the euro area, 166 per cent in the United States, and more than 200 per cent in the United Kingdom.
  • Kogu see hala "(finants)maailma lõpu" kohta on väga tuttav, vahetult enne Eesti krooni devalveerimist möllas ajakirjandus samamoodi.
    "Parem õudne lõpp kui lõputu õudus"
    "<Väga halb asi> juhtub <riigis X> juba 18 novembril!"
    Ajalugu kordub! :-)
  • Vähemalt nad tegelevad tõsiselt ...
    Reuters: Senior EU source says Italy has agreed to IMF monitoring progress on economic reforms

    Meie kell on kellaaeg + 2h.

    10.17: To Rome, where there is confusion over conflicting reports out of Cannes this morning over whether or not the IMF is to take a bigger role in helping Italy through its debt-financing difficulties. The FT’s Guy Dinmore has been reading the smoke signals:

    “An Italian government official tells the FT that officials are working on a ‘redrafting’ of a text concerning eurozone countries under stress, notably Spain and Italy. He said Italy was ready to accept ‘advice’ from the IMF on implementation of the conclusions of the euro group of 27 nations. Such ‘advice’ would be in parallel with the role of the European Commission, which is monitoring Italy’s progress towards implementing structural reforms promised by Silvio Berlusconi’s government but not yet delivered. The official denied reports that Italy had accepted ‘monitoring’ from the IMF. He also said he knew nothing about a reported offer by Christine Lagarde, head of the IMF, to Mr Berlusconi of a €44bn euro credit line, which the prime minister was said to have turned down.

    Meanwhile Italy’s benchmark 10-year bond was trading little changed from yesterday’s closing levels at 6.2 per cent, with the spread over German bunds at just under 430 points.”

    12.33: It is far from clear exactly what the IMF is to monitor in Italy or how it will do it (see 12.02 and 10.17). The Berlusconi government was supposed to agree a package of economic reforms to be presented to the rest of the G20. But the rifts between ministers proved unbridgeable – though Italy has given Europe various commitments to reform. Giulio Tremonti, a finance minister evidently fond of plain speaking, was quoted as telling Berlusconi:
    “I am saying that on Monday there will be a disaster on the markets if you, Silvio, stay at your post and do not go. Because the problem for Europe and the markets, correct or not as it may be, is in fact you.”

    13.26: In Cannes the FT’s Peter Spiegel has been going over Barroso’s comments on the IMF monitoring Italy (see 12.02):
    “Barroso made clear that this would be much more intrusive than a traditional IMF Article IV review, which the fund does annually for all its members. Instead, Barroso said it would use as a baseline the 14-page letter Berlusconi sent to the EU last month detailing the initiatives he intends to implement, including raising the country’s retirement age to 67. ‘I see this as evidence of how important Italy’s reform process is for the country and for the eurozone as a whole,’ Barroso said.”


    14.20: HOLD THE PRESSES!!! the IMF is not going to be monitoring Italy. Rather it’s going to be “certifiying” or “verifying” Italy’s reforms. Or so said Silvio Berlusconi at his post-G20 press conference.

    Guy Dinmore, the FT’s Rome correspondent, has been following the press conference. He says the most interesting bit was when
    Giulio Tremonti, the finance minister – who to say the least has had a troubled relationship with Mr Berlusconi, and was sitting alongside his boss at the press conference – was asked to comment on reports that he believed Italy needed a change of government.
    The prime minister jumped in to say the reply was not in doubt, raising laughs.

    Mr Tremonti took the microphone and a deep breath and replied: “I have nothing to add to what the prime minister said.” Pressed later, Mr Tremonti said he had not had time to read the newspapers and saw no need to deny things he had not read. Mr Berlusconi leaped in again saying the press often reported the complete opposite of reality. Hardly a convincing demonstration of unity.

    Defending the state of the Italian economy, Mr Berlusconi said it was the seventh largest in the world, that consumer spending was not declining, the restaurants were full, airlines were filling their seats, and holidays were booked. This is not a country in crisis, he said.


    15.35: There’s been a bit of he-said-she-said going on with Mr Berlusconi saying Italy turned down an offer from the IMF of financial aid – in the form of a precautionary line of credit – and Christine Lagarde, the head of the IMF, saying the offer was never made. Whom to believe….?

  • Üleeelmine postitus pildi näol. Kui keegi selle pressika video leiab, oleks tänulik kui siia postitataks.

  • Berlusconil vaatlejate arvates viimased päevad nüüd käsil valitsusjuhina. Parlamendis 2 MPd lahkus Silvio kambast ja nüüd on tal 314 häält 630st. Veel 6 siiani lojaalset MPd kirjutasid kirja soovitades tal uue valitsusega uut faasi alustada poliitikas sest praegusel valitsusel pole enam toetust mis võimaldaks lubaduste (IMFle, ELle) täitmiseks vajalike tähtsaid otsuseid läbi hääletada. 18 MPd olla valmis teiste parteidega liituma kui midagi ei muutu. Osad pakuvad right hand man Gianni Letta't sobivaks asenduseks. Pres. Napolitano kel võimu PM välja vahetada on kõigi põhiparteidega kombanud pinda Silviole alternatiivi leidmiseks. Eks näis, teisp. oluline eelarve hääletus ja juba neljap. võib-olla usaldushääletus.
    Kas ta "I will survive" saab laulda oma Sardiinia villa karaoke saalis 18 a. tüdrukutele?

    PS. mis ta artisti nimi võiks olla ? (a la GPap): SillyB, SilBer, Berla, DJ BungaBunga, MC Silvio B.?
  • Vabandust OT pärast, aga winger, kas sul mingi muu tegevus peale siinses foorumis kirjutamise ka on? :) Postituste tiheduse järgi mingi muu asja jaoks aega küll ei tundu jäävat.
  • Itaalia augustis esitatud reformide kava, sarnaselt Kreeka reformikavale. Eile Itaalia lehele La Stampa ütles ECB Yves Mersch ECB arutab tõsimeeli lõpetada Itaalia võlakirjade ostmise, kuna Itaalialt pole näha muudatusi / reforme tulemas. Berlusconil aga pole enam reaalset võimu valitsuse üle, ega ka kellelgi teisel, mistõttu võib paberile kirjutad mida tahes, see ei rakendu. Itaalial aeguvad 2012 aastal €166bn eest võlakirju ja lisanduvad intressid. Lisaks G20 pressikonverentsi segadus, kus Berlusconi rääkis ühte ja Itaalia Keskpanga president teist juttu. Lisaks siis opexi poolt toodud opositsiooni surve Berluaconile. G20 eelne Berlusconi ja rahandusminstri vaheline arutelu läks vett vedama
    Yves Mersch
    "If we observe that our interventions are undermined by a lack of efforts by national governments then we have to pose ourselves the problem of the incentive effect," Mersch said according to extracts of an interview with Italian daily La Stampa to be published on Sunday. Asked if this meant the ECB would stop buying Italy's bonds if it did not adopt reforms it has promised to the European Union, Mersch, who heads Luxembourg's central bank, replied: "If the ECB board reaches the conclusion that the conditions that led it to take a decision no longer exist, it is free to change that decision at any moment. We discuss this all the time."

    Mersch said the ECB did not want to become a lender of last resort to help the euro zone solve its debt crisis and said it was concerned that its job could be made more difficult by governments that "don't meet their responsibilities." "Our job is not to remedy the errors of politicians," he said.

    ZeroHedge vahendusel Itaalia võlakirjade struktuur ja intresside maksekohustused ning teemast laiemalt.

    ZH teooria kohaselt on Berlusconi mõistnud, et tuleb küll ECB päästma, rääkigu mida soovivad.
  • Uus rekord täna hommikul, Itaalia 10y 6.50%
  • Siin väidab 6.54%. See oli selge, et tuleb. Kõil on itaalaste kätes. Koledat kolli Kuri "Paha" Turg pole olemas. See nädal otsustab Itaalia käekäigu.

    @SkyNewsBreak Italian 10 year bond yields have risen to a record high of 6.54%
    Update (0845 UK time)
    Also, just a bit on additional margin for Italian bonds at clearinghouses… There’s been some focus on the 450bps spread “trigger” for margin on sovereign risk, applied to trades going through RepoClear at LCH Clearnet Ltd. It’s important to reiterate that this isn’t the spread of Italian debt to Bunds (which is already far north of 450bps) but to a specific benchmark index of French, German and Dutch debt. This spread remains at 419bps. Even then, that’s LCH Clearnet Ltd. LCH Clearnet SA is directly connected to the domestic Italian bond market by contrast so it’s difficult to generalise about how fresh repo margins would impair demand for Italian debt: facilities for clearing this debt are diverse. In any case it’s a bit of a red herring. At these levels (and volatility) quite simply Italian government debt is dying because real money investors are staying well away. Same as it was in July when Italy paper first jumped off a cliff, same as it is now.
  • Risk appetite finds some traction in early NY trading on speculation that Italy PM would resign in 'near future'
  • Aga Berlusconi ütles, et ta ei kavatse kuhugi astuda, istuda ega minna ....

    Italian PM Berlusconi says resignation rumors are unfounded; senior party member says PM denied he will resign - ANSA News Agency, @Reuters
  • Paras kino käib ikkagi :)
    Former Italy PM spokesperson: resignation by the PM likely next week; PM to decide future within hours - Italian press
  • GPap tõstis perfomansi lati kõrgele. Seda muidugi annab ületada, aga proovida võib alati.
  • Pilguheit, kuidas sündmused võivad teisipäeval areneda.
    -If the government does not get a majority tomorrow, it may call a confidence vote. If it then loses the confidence vote, Mr Berlusconi will need to convene with the President, Giorgio Napolitano, on the next steps. It would then be up to President Napolitano to dissolve parliament, if he judges that the government is not backed by a majority, and form an interim government. -However, even if the government survives tomorrow’s vote, Mr Berlusconi will likely meet with President Napolitano to discuss the next steps, give the fragility of the political situation at this stage. Mr Berlusconi will likely reiterate his unwillingness to step down and his wish to continue to govern, but at this stage he will probably support early elections once the Stability Law (the 2012 budget law) is approved.

    We believe that at this stage the only possibility is to form a new unity government headed by a “super-partes” personality, who should be able to give credibility back to Italy and press ahead with reforms. A technical government, headed by Mario Monti, looks the main possibility. Mr Monti would be highly supported by both the main oppositions parties, UdC and PD, and likely by many of Mr. Berlusconi’s Popolo delle Liberta’ MPs (who would support him only once the Berlusconi government had collapsed). A technical government headed by Mr Monti and supported by a large majority would be a positive step forward, in our view
  • Berlusconi uus suurim toetaja. (katsu pilti)
  • Trall Itaalias luba tulla põnev. Need kes panustavad Berlusconi lahkumisele võivad oletada mis hinnaga. Nõrkadele kätele see mõeldud ei ole.

    Berlusconi perekonnale kuuluva lehe Il Giornale esilehe tsitaat:"If you want to vote against me in parliament, I want to look in the face of those who will betray me.."

    Loodame, et selleks on mõni teine siresäärne parlamendisaadik.
    Ahjaa, selgituseks ülemise pildi kohta - Gabriela Carlucci on vastaspartei parlamendisaadikuga, kellest on saanud tugev Berlusconi toetaja. Telediktor, kellest sai parlamendisaadik. Vaatamata kõigele on Berlusconil powerit naisi endae poole meelitada.

    12.32: Reuters has crunched some data and produced a forecast chart for the Italian economy. It’s all downhill from here…

    Võimalus, et Itaalia valitsuse säästudest läheb enamus laenuintresside teenindamiseks.

    12.52: For anyone seeking more analysis on the ruckus in Rome, Open Europe, a think tank, has put a research note, suggesting, among other things, that Italy’s heightened interest payments could potentially wipe out almost half of its projected €60bn budget savings by 2014.

    New Open Europe briefing: At current borrowing costs, Italy could face an extra €28bn in interest payments over the next three years
  • Itaalaste sisevaade endasse:

    Corrado Passera, chief executive Intesa Sanpaolo, Italy’s biggest retail bank which holds €60bn in Italian sovereign debt, has commented on the crisis:
    --- the fundamental strengths of the Italian economy are confirmed. There is low family and business indebtedness, a strong and vibrant manufacturing sector with growing exports, no real estate bubble and very high private and public assets.
    --- Italy will rebuild its credibility on the basis of a balanced combination of austerity and development that will reduce total debt and create sustainable development and jobs. We have to send a clear message of our commitment to our European partners.
  • 60 miljardi eest võlga hoidva panga juht ei saagi muud juttu ajada, sest ta ei taha näiteks 50% lossi sisse võtta (nagu Kreekas).
  • Päris hea kommentaar eile Lloyds panga makroanalüütikult: asi on seal kus ta praegu on sellepärast, et investorid hinnastasid kõiki eurovõlakirju sama riski alusel, mis 'obviously is not the case'. Eks see aeg on nüüd ka möödas. Mis Itaalia puhul õige hind on on raske öelda - julgen arvata et nad saavad veel mitu aastat 6-8% maksta. Aga kahtlemata ei ole tegu Kreekaga. Itaalial on palju probleeme, aga see on toimiv majandus ja võimeline makse koguma - mitte nii hästi kui Saksamaa, aga Kreekast ikkagi kordades paremini.

    Nad võivad kaotada oma planeeritud ülejäägi, aga pankrotti ei paista veel kusagilt. Ja natuke parem intress praeguse USA bondi 2+% asemel oleks ju väga meeldiv, või mis?
  • Itaalia arengud erinevad Kreeka omast sellega, et praegu on probleemseks Berlusconi ja tema soovimatus minna reformidega edasi. Tundub, et nii Keskpank, poliitiline enamus kui ka ettevõtjad soovivad hakata reformidega peale. Seniks kuni Berlusconi pidurdab, vaatamata korduvatele lubadustele EU liidritele, tõuseb võlakirja intress. Nüüd ongi küsimus - kas ennem käriseb intress või Berlusconi loovutab koha teistele.

    Mis puudutab Berlusconi tagandamist, siis see on raskesti usutav, võttes arvesse tema ellujäämisvõimet kohtuistungitest ja seksiskandaalist.

    Youtube kubiseb Berlusconi ja teiste tegelaste vahelistest kõnesalvestistest. Kahju et keelt ei valda.
  • BREAKING NEWS: Italy's president says Berlusconi will resign after approval of new budget law.
  • Fidel (Castro) ja/või Hugo (Chavez) võiks nüüd enne oma lõplikku surnukskuulutamist teha kuulsusrikka žesti, anda härrastele Papandreou'le ning Berlusconi'le oma riigi kõrgeima autasu kapitalismi tõelise õõnestamise eest Euroopas ning kogu maailmas - asi millega nad ise poole sajandi jooksul siiski päris hästi hakkama ei saanud, on lühikese ajaga ning mängeldes ära tehtud ;)

    Vajadusel saab eurohärrastele lisaks ordenile pakkuda ka poliitilist varjupaika/kuldset europensioni kulutamist Kuubas või Venezuelas, juhul kui näiteks Kreeka tänavarahutustest siiber on või Itaalias enam elu ilus ei tundu...
  • Itaalia ei ole kindlasti Kreeka. Pigem võiks tõmmata paralleele 1995-2005 Saksamaaga - probleemiks on seisev majandus, mis vajab ergutavat süsti taguotsa. Kui meelde tuletada, siis kuskil 2000. aasta paiku rääkisid kõik Saksamaast kui EL haigest mehest.
    Itaalia on EL-is Saksamaa järel tööstusjõud nr 2 ning tema inseneride, disainerite ja müügimeeste potentsiaal pole kuskile kadunud.
    Riigivõlg on probleemne, aga tasuks meelde tuletada, et see on olnud 100+% SKT-st juba 1970-ndatest aastatest peale (vrd Kreekas oli see 1981. aastal EL-i astudes 20% SKT-st). Seega on suudetud asja tegelikult hoida ligi 30 aastat kenasti kontrolli all ning praegugi on Itaalias riigieelarve intressideta ülejäägis.
  • Itaalia häda on muidugi suur polaarsus. Kui põhjas leiame pigem tõesti saksaliku tööstuse, siis lõunas on kreekalik sotsiaalpornograafia.
  • -- Berlusconi teade tagasi astuda oli tegelikult taktikaline käik venitada aega, mitte käia oma sõnade järgi.
    -- EU monitooringu komisjon on Itaalias.
    -- Itaalia rahandusminister läks presidendi jutule rääkimaks detailselt, milliseid reforme on vaja ette võtte.
    -- Itaalia president üritab kogu oma võimuga veenda poliitikuid koostööle ja leidma lahenduse järgmise 18 kuu jooksul tegemaks korda majanduse. Ta ei näe vajadust enneaegseteks valimisteks.
    Berlusconi, rääkides Itaalia majandusseisust, eelmine reede G20 kohtumisel.

    Defending the state of the Italian economy, Mr Berlusconi said it was the seventh largest in the world, that consumer spending was not declining, the restaurants were full, airlines were filling their seats, and holidays were booked. This is not a country in crisis, he said.

    12.39: Back to Rome where the FT’s Guy Dinmore reports that Giulio Tremonti, the finance minister whose has been battling with Berlusconi over reforms and budget cuts for months, has gone to meet president Napolitano to discuss the emergency reform measures that must be put before the senate as soon as possible.
    Tremonti is then due to meet the EU inspectors who have arrived in Rome on their first monitoring mission. Tremonti is making it known that he was not happy with what he calls Berlusconi’s “tactical” decision to delay his resignation and push for elections.

    But Tremonti is isolated in the cabinet, and it remains to be seen how much residual authority he can still wield. Would he have the political courage to lead a breakaway group out of the People of Liberty party and support an emergency government? Remember at the G20 summit in Cannes, Tremonti — with Berlusconi sitting beside him — pointedly declined to give his public backing to the prime minister.

    The parallels between Italy and Greece are striking, which explains market fears that neither can overcome their internal domestic rivalries to act decisively.

  • European Central Bank was seen to be intervening heavily in the secondary market trading, according to Reuters. “ECB is buying aggressively,” one trader told the newswire. Another trader said the ECB was now also targeting the two-year bonds, in addition to the country’s 10-year debts.
  • Italy's president says there's no doubt Berlusconi will resign; new government will be formed soon - @Reuters
  • Barclays' eilne teade - Italy is now mathematically beyond point of no return.
    Täna see realiseerus reaalselt. ZH tegi selle peale mõned graafikud:

  • Italy’s government debt: €1.9 trillion, or 120% of GDP
    Italy's debt to roll over during 2012 (pay back maturing bonds and raise new money): €306 billion
    Cost of rescuing Italy: around €1.4 trillion (estimation by Gary Jenkins, an analyst at Evolution Securities)
    European rescue fund: €440 billion currently, plans to somehow leverage it to €1 trillion
  • Väidetavalt läheb Berlusconi pühapäeval erru.

    DJ: The Italian Prime Minister Berlusconi to resign by Sunday
  • Itaalia 10y võlg rallib korralikult yield hetkel 6,82.
  • The Italian senate is to vote on austerity measures demanded by the EU, with a final approval at the weekend enabling PM Silvio Berlusconi to resign. The upper house is due to begin its debate on the austerity law at 10:30 local time, with a vote expected in the evening. Debate and vote in lower house of parliament on Saturday.
    Mr Berlusconi, who lost his parliamentary majority in a vote on Tuesday, has promised to resign after the austerity measures are passed by both houses of parliament.
    The austerity package foresees 59.8bn euros in savings from a mixture of spending cuts and tax rises, with the aim of balancing the budget by 2014. Measures include:

    - An increase in VAT, from 20% to 21%
    - A freeze on public-sector salaries until 2014
    - The retirement age for women in the private sector(?) will gradually rise, from 60 in 2014 until it reaches 65 in 2026, the same age as for men
    - Measures to fight tax evasion will be strengthened, including a limit of 2,500 euros on cash transactions
    - There will be a special tax on the energy sector
    - The Italian president has made Mr Monti a senator for life, meaning he will be eligible to take part in Friday's vote.

    President Napolitano could accept Mr Berlusconi's resignation as early as Saturday evening and then formally ask Mr Monti or another candidate to form a government of technocrats.
    An EU team has begun work in Rome, monitoring how Italy plans to cut its crushing debt burden.
  • Italy's Senate approves financial stability law -@Reuters

    Elame nüüd pühapäevani.
  • Käib ringi kõlakas, et pangad kirjutavad maha €300 bn Itaalia võlga.
    While the market is ripping today on absolutely nothing (earlier we noted the rotation of muppet X with muppet Y -this changes nothing but who cares), BTPs are soaring, and confusion is prevalent, one thing is certain: we now know who is not buying Italian bonds. As IFR reports, "European banks are planning to dump more of the €300bn they own in Italian government debt, as they seek to pre-empt a worsening of the region’s debt crisis and avoid crippling writedowns –a move that could scupper the European Central Bank’s efforts to bring down soaring yields. Still reeling from heavy losses on money they lent to Greece, lende
  • Live ülekanne parlamendi alamkohast BBC news kanali pealt, nagu mingi loomaaed, ühel tüübil ei lasta rääkida, teised saadikud lällavad nii kõvasti lihtsalt. Kõnet pidav tegelane süüdistab SillyB pooldajaid madalates rünnakutes ja solvangutes. Aga austerity hääletus läks läbi ja Silvio peaks vist minema nüüd.
  • Berlusconi astus tagasi. Päev varem.
  • Itaalias tundub asi minevat ilusti. Berlusconi partei nõus vahevalitsusega. Valitsus astub ametisse homme või neljapäeval.

    12:29 A collective sigh of relief in Italy as Mario Monti, economic professor and prime minister-designate, got the green light from Silvio Berlusconi’s centre-right People of Liberty party and the opposition Democratic party to form an emergency caretaker government after separate talks with the two parties that have just concluded. The FT’s Guy Dinmore and Giulia Segreti report from Rome:
    Markets had been fretting on rumours that the government-in-waiting might collapse even before it was formed, driving Italy’s 10-year bond yields back above the dangerously high level of 7 per cent and spreads over German bunds to 530 points, not far off last week’s euro-era highs.

    Angelino Alfano, secretary of People of Liberty, came out of what he called a “positive and quite long meeting” with Mr Monti and said he expected the government to be formed.

    Mr Monti is to have more talks this afternoon with the “social parties”, meaning business groups and the trade unions, among others, before he starts finalising his cabinet, over which there is still intense speculation over whether it will be solely unelected technocrats like himself or include some politicians from the main parties.

    If all goes to plan the government could be sworn in tomorrow or Thursday and then go to parliament for a vote of confidence that now – for the moment at least – appears assured. Then the really hard work begins in terms of urgent measures to stave off a sovereign debt collapse on the markets.

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