Börsipäev 4. november - Investeerimine - Foorum - LHV finantsportaal

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Börsipäev 4. november

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  • Eilse seisuga on Kreeka peaminister loobunud kavatsusest saata eelmisel nädalal saavutatud Euroopa liidrite kokkuleppe tingimused rahvahääletusele. Põhjuseks nii peaministri, tema juhitava partei kui opositsiooni kindel soov jätkata eurotsooni koosseisus.

    Kuulujutud ja võimalikud sisepoliitilised arengud pole aga kuhugi veel kadunud. Viimaste "uudiste" kohaselt võib Papandreou peaministri ametist loobuda, kui ta peaks võitma tänase parlamendi usaldushääletuse. Reutersi eilse artikli kohaselt:
    Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou has struck a deal with ministers to step down and hand power to a negotiated coalition government if they help him win a confidence vote on Friday, government sources with knowledge of a cabinet meeting said.

    They said the ministers involved in the deal were led by Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos.

    "He was told that he must leave calmy in order to save his party," one source told Reuters on condition of anonymity. "He agreed to step down. It was very civilized, with no acrimony.

    Tähelepanu pälvib ka täna lõppev G20 kohtumine Cannes'is, kus on arutluse all IMFi osaluse võimalik suurendamine Euroopa päästefondis. Ühe võimalusena võib IMF lihtsalt süstida EFSFi raha, kuid juriidiliselt pole see kiirelt teostatav. Danske Bank jagab oma nägemust:
    Overall, we see two possible solutions. First, it is possible that the IMF could increase the firing power of the EFSF by providing funds directly to the EFSF or its possible SPV offshoots. However, it is questionable to what degree this is consistent with the IMF's current mandate, which allows lending only to individual countries. The purchase of bonds in the secondary market would be completely new territory for the IMF and would also probably require a change in the IMF charter.

    Second, the IMF could use some of its existing facilities. In particular, the IMF's relatively new Precautionary Credit Line (PCL) could be relevant for countries such as Italy and Spain. The purpose of the PCL is primarily to improve a country's liquidity position to protect the country from contagion in connection with systemic shocks in global financial markets. This is a drawing right that countries prequalify for but when a country has prequalified this drawing right can be used unconditionally (duration is one ot two years). The size of the drawing right depends on a country's quota in the IMF (500-1000% of quota). Under existing rules, Italy could get EUR45-90bn and Spain EUR23-46bn, according to our calculations. However, an important question of course remains whether Italy and Spain will actually be able to prequalify for access to the PCL.

    However, should Italy and Spain (and possibly other countries) draw on this, it would probably be necessary to increase the IMF's resources. The IMF's free resources are currently estimated to be about USD391bn. China, Japan and Russia have expressed a willingness to contribute to boosting the IMF's resources. Remarkably, the US has been more reluctant to support increasing the IMF's resources, partly because it fears it will be intertwined with current discussions about voting power within the IMF.

    Lisaks Euroopa võlakriisi sündmustele on täna avaldamisel ka mitmed olulised makronäitajad. Kell 11 avaldatakse eurotsooni PMI teenustesektori indeks, kell 12 eurotsooni septembrikuu tootjahinnaindeksid. Kell 13 ilmub Kanada töötururaport ja Saksamaa septembrikuu tehasetellimuste andmed. Kõige tähtsama näitajana avaldatkse kell 14.30 USA töötururaport. Euroopa aktsiaindeksite futuurid on hetkel kauplemas 0,28-0,77% kõrgemal, USA futuurid kauplevad hetkel nullis.
  • Vastavalt FT Alphaville artikkel Citi analüütiku poolt Itaalia kriisi võimalikkusest, oli toodud välja tõsiasi, et peale Kreeka tralli ei ole IMF-l erilist soovi kergelt EFSFi raha paigutada kuna poliitiline risk on täiesti reaalne ning IMF soov on mitte mängida poliitilise riskiga. Reutersi artikkel näitab selgelt, et IMFil on paremaid meetodeid toimetamiseks kui olla seotud EFSFga.
  • RBS has reported third-quarter results and also put a figure on the losses it expects to take on Greek debt.
    RBS marked down its holding of Greek sovereign debt to 37% of par value, ie 63% loss, as of Sept 31
    German bank Commerzbank has plunged into the red in the third quarter and abandoned its full year profit targets, after taking a €798m (£689m) impairment on Greek assets.
  • Itaalia oktoobrikuu PMI teenustesektori indeks 43,9 vs oodatud 45,5, eelmise kuu näit 45,8 punkti.
  • Prantsusmaa PMI lõplik näit 44,6 vs oodatud 46,0.
    Saksamaa PMI 50,6 vs oodatud 52,1.
    Eurotsooni PMI 46,4 vs oodatud 47,2 ja liitindeks 46,5 vs oodatud 47,2 punkti.
  • opex
    ...RBS marked down its holding of Greek sovereign debt to 37% of par value, ie 63% loss, as of Sept 31...

    Eks see 31. september ole tõesti väga must päev. Õnneks möödus see minu jaoks märkamatult.

    Saksa aktsiaturg peaks tähenduse kohaselt olema pulliturul (+20% põhjast ehk üle 5959 punkti), samuti on DAX püsinud ülevalpool karuturule langemise joont (6080 punkti). Viimane võiks olla oluliseks toetuspunktiks.
  • Veel mõned makronäitajad:

    Saksamaa septembrikuu tehasetellimused -4,3% vs oodatud +0,1% (M/M) ja +2,4% vs oodatud +7,5% (Y/Y).
    Kanada tööturu olukord kehvenemas: oodati 15 000 uue töökoha lisandumist, kuid selle asemel hoopis kadus 54 000 töökohta. Töötusmäär tõusis seejuures 20 baaspunkti võrra 7,3% peale.

    Euro pole täna väga suuri liikumisi teinud, kaubeldes hetkel 0,15% kõrgemal $1,3843 juures, kuid Kanada dollar on sattus tulemuste peale surve alla ja kaupleb 1,1% madalamal 1,0175 juures.
  • Kui vaadata, kuidas läheb USA ettevõtetel käimasoleval tulemuste hooajal, siis 64,5% ettevõtetest on suutnud näidata oodatust paremat kasuminumbrit. See on kõrgem näitaja kui kahel eelneval tulemuste hooajal. Käibe osas seevastu on ootusi ületanud 62% ettevõtetest, mis on madalaim näitaja alates 2009. aasta märtsist.
  • Gapping up
    In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: OPWV +33.1% (also Openwave and Microsoft reach patent licensing agreement), INHX +28.8% (also reported top-line safety and antiviral data from the first cohort of its ongoing clinical trial of INX-189), BWEN +11.6% (also attributed to continued strength following yesterday's intraday news), CNW +9.5% (light volume), SKUL +7.9%, G +7.3% (light volume), MDAS +6.1% (light volume), AUTH +5.2% (light volume), CHK +5.1% (announces utica shale joint venture and utica shale financial investment with potential combined proceeds net to Chesapeake of ~$3.4 bln), ARCI +5% (thinly traded), SBUX +2.7%, UPL +2.6% (ticking higher), ALJ +2.4%, RBS +2.3%, AMAG +1.8%, MDRX +1.3%.

    M&A related: STP +2% (early strength attributed to speculation that LG Electronics may be interest in the company; Reports out this morning indicate that both cos denied in merger discussions).

    Select metals/mining stocks trading modestly higher: BBL +0.6%, RIO +0.4%, GOLD +0.4%, .

    Other news: FSLR +3.8% (First Solar consolidates manufacturing, increases conversion efficiency, downgraded to Sell from Hold at ThinkEquity), GALE +3.7% (presents positive NeuVax clinical results at the 26th Annual Meeting of the Society for Immunotherapy of Cancer), CRME +2.6% (announces positive Phase 1 PK/PD trial results for Vernakalant Oral), HGSI +2.6% (announces multiple abstracts related to BENLYSTA and systemic lupus erythematosus to be presented ), SLRC +2.5% (positive mention on MadMoney), VVUS +2% (announced Qnexa Phase 3 data published in obesity show 14.4% average weight loss in severely obese patients completing one year of treatment).

    Analyst comments: DNR +2.2% (upgraded to Buy from Outperform at Credit Agricole).
  • October Nonfarm Private Payrolls 104K vs 117K Briefing.com consensus; Prior 137K
    October Nonfarm Payrolls 80K vs 85K Briefing.com consensus; September revised to 158K from 103K
    October Unemployment Rate 9.0% vs 9.1% Briefing.com consensus; Prior 9.1%
    October Hourly Earnings +0.2% vs +0.2% Briefing.com consensus; Prior +0.2%
    October Average Workweek 34.3 vs 34.3 Briefing.com consensus; Prior 34.3
    August Nonfarm Payrolls revised to 104K from 57K
  • Gapping down
    In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: TRID -42.1%, CEDC -24.6%, MTZ -14.4%, ALU -13%, SUN -10.7% (ticking lower), LNKD -10.6% (also announces a $100 mln common stock offering), KEYN -10.4%, AONE -9.3%, SGEN -8.7% (also downgraded to Neutral from Buy at BofA/Merrill), MED -8.5% (also downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Janney ), ENTR -8.1%, OPTR -7.8%, IGOI -7.6% (thinly traded), SAPE -6.7%, SPWRA -6.6% (also announced a reorganization; CFO, Dennis Arriola, will be leaving the company in March of 2012; co believes it may incur a one-time, pre-tax charge of ~$10 mln which is not included in current 2011 GAAP guidance), SWKS -6.3% (also downgraded to Sector Perform from Outperform at Pacific Crest), MHK -5.9%, SD -5.5% (also downgraded to Hold at Stifel Nicolaus), ELON -4.6% (also downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Wedbush), FLR -4%, RSTI -3.9%, AIG -3.4%, GLUU -3.3% (light volume), HANS -1.5%, CBS -0.9%.

    Other news: OXGN -34.4% (reports final data from Phase 2 FALCON study of ZYBRESTAT in non-small cell lung cancer), RNN -30.4% (announces Phase II results for Serdaxin as treatment for major depressive disorder - all groups showed an approximate -14 point improvement), HCN -4.7% (announces proposed offering of 10 mln shares of common stock), WBMD -1.2% (Carl Icahn discloses 9.49% stake in amended 13D filing).

    Analyst comments: KRO -3.7% (downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Wells Fargo), CHS -2.2% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Citigroup, downgraded to Neutral from Buy at SunTrust), PCG -1.4% (downgraded to Sector Perform from Outperform at RBC Capital).
  • http://blogs.ft.com/the-world/2011/11/eurozone-crisis-live-blog-10/#ixzz1ckAmUgSv

    13.13: BREAKING NEWS Sarkozy is on his feet delivering the decisions of the G20 summit in Cannes
    Situation “more complex” than 2009
    There’s not a single number to this problem [eurzone crisis]
    11 countries fingered as “tax havens”
    “We do not want to have any more tax havens in the world”
    “The countries that go on being tax havens … will be excluded from the international community”
    Finance ministers will work out how to boost resources of IMF at February meeting
    Welcomes Italy’s agreement to submit to regular outside monitoring
    On financial transactions tax ideas – financial institutions that have led the world into crisis should pay towards repairing damage
    “France will fight for that tax [on financial transactions] to become a reality”

  • Veneajal oli väljend- davai, davai botom posmotrim. Tõstme pankadel kapitali adekvaatsust ja kehtestame rajakatele veel täiendava maksu ja siis imestame, et keegi meie väidetavalt riskivaba SPVd, mis subprime sovereign võlga ostab, finantseerida ei taha :-)
  • Headline crosssing that Sarkozy says ECB ready to intervene if necessary
  • Sarkozy sai oma tahtmise. Meenub, et ta sellist retoorikat on juba ammu ajanud. Nüüd on see siis lihtsalt kokku lepitud. Samas, pressiteadetega üritatakse alati meelsust luua. Jääme ootama UK, USA ja Hiina arvamust.
  • Hakkasin mõtlema - maks kehtestuks Hiinas?
  • Cree showing relative strength on rising volume; strength attributed to reports about China phasing-out incandescent bulbs
  • FT live blog - 14.15: Here’s a link to the summit communiqué.

    G20 kokkuvtõe.
  • G7 official tells CNBC that IMF aid to EFSF awaits European commitments; IMF could act rapidly once Europe commits resources
  • GPRN avanes $28 pealt, hetkel kauplemas $29.95
  • Jokes po франтсуски. Eh, Zarkozii, Zakrozii ..

    14.50: More from Hugh Carnegy on the G20 communiqué.
    Mr Sarkozy did not have much in the way of concrete achievements to proclaim at his closing press conference, but he did make a big deal of getting a mention – albeit a passing reference – to a financial transaction tax into the communique, which acknowledges as an initiative being taken by ‘some countries’.

    The US and UK are flatly opposed to an FTT (a big bee in the French bonnet) but it is now backed by the European Commission and Sarko reeled of a list of others he said now supported it: Argentina, the African Union, Ethiopia, South Africa, the secretary general of the UN and Brazil.

    He’s definitely not giving up on the subject.

  • winger
    FT live blog - 14.15: Here’s a link to the summit communiqué.

    G20 kokkuvtõe.

    Sama asi, aga tõlgitud inimkeelde. Kuna tegu on väljaandega, kus on kasutuses ka siivsad mahlakad väljendid, teeb lugemise eriti meelsaks. Räägitakse otse ja õpetatakse lugema läbi kantseliidi.

    15.20: Our colleagues on the FT’s alphaville team have “translated” the G20 communiqué.
  • Moody's downgraded Cyprus's bond ratings to Baa3/P-3 from Baa1/P-2 , on review for further downgrade

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