Börsipäev 12. jaanuar - Investeerimine - Foorum - LHV finantsportaal

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Börsipäev 12. jaanuar

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  • Öösel avaldatud Hiina tarbijahinnaindeks kasvas detsembris 4,1% võrreldes mullusega. See oli mõnevõrra aeglasem novembri 4,2%st ja ühtis enam vähem analüütikute 4,0%lise prognoosiga. Suures osas odavnesid kõik komponendid peale toiduainete, mille hinnad kerkisid mulluse baasil 9,1% ja see ilmselt väga uljast tegutsemist keskpanga poolt ei õigusta, juhul kui muidugi eksporditurgudel drastiliselt negatiivseid arenguid ei toimu.

    Tänase päeva fookuses võiks olla Hispaania ja Itaalia võlakirjaoksjonid. Esimene emiteerib kuni 5 miljardi euro eest 2015 ja 2016a aegumisega võlakirju, Itaalia aga müüb enne homset pikema duratsiooniga võlakirjade oksjonit lühema perioodi T-bille. Ühtlasi leiavad aset Inglise ja Euroopa keskpanga kohtumised. EKP puhul on konsensuse nägemuseks intressimäärade samaks jätmine, kui pigem pakutakse, et rahapoliitika koordineerija jääb hetkel äraootavale seisukohale pärast 3a LTRO-d. UK puhul on väike võimalus, et QE-d suurendatakse, ent sealgi pakutakse pigem äraootavat seisukohta

    Ka makro pool pakub täna võrdlemisi olulist statistikat:
    11.30 Suurbritannia novembri tööstustoodang
    12.00 Eurotsooni novembri tööstustoodang
    15.30 USA detsembri jaemüük
    15.30 USA esmased töötuabiraha taotlused
    17.00 USA ettevõtete varude muutus novembris
    21.00 USA valitsuse eelarve puudujääk detsembris
  • Suurbritannia tööstutoodangu langus näitas näitas novembris kiirenemist, alandes -3,1% võrreldes mullusega (oktoobris -2,1%). Analüütikud olid aga oodanud -2,2%list langust.
  • Hispaania suutis soovitud 5 miljardi euro asemel müüa 9,98 miljardi euro ulatuses võlakirju. 2015.a võlakirja yield 3,38% vs detsembri oksjoni 5,187%. Bid to cover 1,8 vs 2,7 detsembris. 2016 yield 3,78% vs 4,87% juuli oksjonil. Bid to cover 2,21 vs 2,85 juulis.
  • Ka eurotsooni tööstustoodang novembris oodatust kesisem. YoY -0,3% vs prog +0,2% (oktoobris +1,0%)
  • itaalia suutis oma lühiajalise võla oksjonitel samuti paremaid yielde saada

    Italy sells total EUR12.0 bln vs EUR12.0 bln indicated in 5-Month AND 12-Month Bills (11.62)
    Sells EUR3.5 bln vs EUR3.5 bln in 5-Month Bills; Avg yield 1.644% vs 3.251% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.85x v 1.69x prior
    Sells EUR8.5 bln vs EUR8.5 bln in 12-Month Bills; Avg yield 2.735% vs 5.952% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.47x vs 1.92x prior
  • Nii Itaalia kui Hispaania 10a võlakirjade tulusused on tänaste oksjonitulemuste peale korralikult alla tulnud...Itaalia oma tervelt 44 baaspunkti.
    Itaalia 10a võlakirja yield

    Hispaania 10a yield
  • UK jaemüüjatel on olnud üsna mustad jõulud, mille tõestuseks on Suurbritannia suurima jaemüüja Tesco kesised müügitulemused.
    Like-for-like UK sales at Tesco were down by 2.3% over Christmas, the supermarket giant has reported.
    Britain's largest retailer said the results, for the six weeks to January 7, were "below expectations and disappointing"

    Aktsia kaupleb Londoni börsil 14,3% miinuspoolel.

  • BOE leaves key interest rates unchanged at 0.5%; no change to asset purchases; target GBP275 bln
  • Amount of UK quantitative easing remains the same at £275bn.

    See teeb €331mld ja $422 mld ja ikka vähe.
  • Ratings agency Fitch does not see France as a crisis country and will not downgrade it from AAA
  • European Central Bank leaves rates unchanged at 1.00%, as expected
  • Gapping up
    In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: PRST +42.9% (thinly traded), MFLX +14.7%, DKS +5.8%, (light volume), TSCO +5.6%, AUY +1.4%.

    M&A news: GRRF +12.0% (China Grentech enters into definitive agreement with Talenthome Management and Xing Sheng for 'Going Private' transaction).

    Select financial related names showing strength: ING +7.1% (ING Group canceled plans to list European and Asian operations, considering selling Asian unit, according to reports), NBG +4.8%, BCS +4.1%, DB +3.7%, UBS +3%, IRE +2.7%, BAC +2.6%, STD +2.2%, HBC +1.6%.

    Metals/mining stocks trading higher: MT +3.5%, BBL +2.4%, RIO +2.3%, GOLD +2.1%, SLV +1.9%, BHP +1.9%, GLD +0.7%.

    Other news: TACT +7.6% (Roumell Asset Management files 13D), OPWV +6.8% (announces pursuit of strategic alternatives for products business), JASO +5.7% (still checking), JAG +4.4% (Jaguar Mining provides update on strategic review process and announces the appointment of Rogerio Fernandes as COO), WLT +3.8% (trades higher in after hours session yesterday, holding gains in pre-market session), FBHS +3.1% (following positive comments on MadMoney), QCOR +2.6% (announced it became aware that an investor blog is preparing to issue a report regarding the Company's marketing and business practices), AG +1.8% (achieves record production of 1.96 mln silver ounces in Q4; produced a record 7.6 mln silver eqv. ounces in 2011), TGT +1.8% (announces new $5 bln share repurchase authorization), DDR +1.5% (DDR priced offering of 16.5 mln common shares at $12.95/share), GOOG +0.6% (Google trading higher following WSJ article discussing the co's efforts to expand presence in China).

    Analyst comments: BBVA +3.5% (upgraded to Reduce from Sell at WestLB ), FTNT +3.1% (initiated with an Outperform at FBN Securities), CREE +1.6% (upgraded to Hold from Sell at Kaufman ), EMC +1.6% (upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at JP Morgan), AGNC +0.9% (initiated with an Overweight at Barclays).
  • Gapping down
    In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: DRWI -13.6%, WSM -12%, INFY -9.4%, BGFV -7.1%, EXFO -5.1%, RELL -4.6%, PVH -3.2%, CVX -1.7%.

    Other news: SHLD -10.3% (Sears Hldg under pressure following reports related to potential halt in loans), EK -4.3% (Eastman Kodak trading modestly lower following cautious reports related to the co's pension obligations), CPT -2.7% (announces public offering of 5.75 mln common shares), RDS.A -2.1% (trading lower with CVX), LINE -2.1% (announces public offering of 17 mln common shares).

    Analyst comments: LAZ -7.4% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at BofA/Merrill ), GEOY -3.6% (light volume, downgraded to Hold at The Benchmark Company), COV -1.6% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Goldman), UN -1.4% (downgraded to Hold from Buy at Deutsche Bank ), LEN -1.1% (downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Keefe Bruyette), FTE -0.9% (ticking lower, downgraded to Underweight from Neutral at JP Morgan), CLR -0.8% (downgraded to Hold from Buy at Canaccord), COP -0.4% (downgraded to Hold from Buy at Jefferies).
  • Initial Claims 399K vs 375K Briefing.com consensus; prior revised to 375K from 372K
    Continuing Claims rises to 3.628 mln from 3.609 mln
    December Retail Sales +0.1% vs +0.4% Briefing.com consensus; prior revised to +0.4% from +0.2%
    December Retail Sales ex-auto -0.2% vs +0.3% Briefing.com consensus; prior revised to+0.3 % from +0.2%
  • A Little Speculation Is a Good Sign
    By James "Rev Shark" DePorre
    Jan 12, 2012 | 7:36 AM

    A speculator is a man who observes the future, and acts before it occurs.
    -- Bernard Baruch

    A better-than-expected Spanish bond auction is trumping a hot China inflation report and giving the market a boost in the early going. It would probably be better for the bulls if we opened weak -- we've rallied back from each poor start and sold off on each strong start so far in 2012.

    The dip-buyers have been extremely persistent so far and have prevented any real weakness in the first seven trading days of the new year, but they haven't been able to do much but keep us even after the open. All our gains have come overnight on two days, with the action otherwise being relatively lackluster. It is positive and looks good to the news media but the lack of any real energy is making it challenging.

    One encouraging change in the recent trading is that individual stock-picking is working a bit better. For much of the last half of 2011, stocks were very highly correlated and moved together in a group. All that really mattered was the headlines out of Europe; it didn't do much good to focus on anything other than the overall market direction.

    Recently we have been a bit less sensitive to the movement of the euro, and that has helped produce an environment more conducive to stock-picking. In fact yesterday we had some good old-fashioned momentum action in some low-priced junk stocks. Solar energy was the hottest group, but we also saw some biotechnology, homebuilders and China names attract speculative interest.

    Many market players view the speculative action in low-priced stocks as a sign that the market is frothy and that we are nearing a correction point, but I find it refreshing that we still have enough active traders around to produce this type of action. One of my biggest complaints about the market over the past year has been the lack of any real excitement. Even when we had these straight-up rallies and big moves, it seldom felt like there was any real joy among market players. We had some action in energy, and biotechnology has been hot lately, but there has been very little like the runs we had in precious metals, rare earths, solar energy or small-cap China stocks in the past. The hot money just hasn't shown up the way it used to.

    I don't think the action yesterday is signaling a huge momentum move in solar energy or China stocks, but at least we still have the conditions out there that can product some decent speculative action. That makes me optimistic that down the road we might actually see some hot action and some big moves in select sectors.

    Right now we need to deal with more immediate concerns. I expected to see a little follow-through to some of yesterday's speculative action, but with earnings looming next week I expect to see a little more defensive action kick in. Indications so far are that we aren't in for a great earnings season. We have ignored that for the most part so far but I'm looking for some market players to move to the sidelines in front of next week's reports.

    Technically the market doesn't look bad at all. We are holding near the highs and the underlying support is solid. The lack of much upside traction is the biggest negative, and that might cause some profit-taking to kick in if we continue to sputter, but trying to anticipate weakness in this market is a good way to get burned.

    We have weekly unemployment claims and retail sales coming up to help to set the tone, but right now it looks like we have an upbeat open on the way ... which has not tended to produce further strength recently.
  • WRC, mis müüb oma tooteid selliste kaubamärkide all nagu Calvin Klein, Speedo, Chaps ja Warner hoiatas, et kasum ei pruugi tulla nii suur kui oodatud.
    Warnaco Group (WRC) at the ICR xchange conference says "Adj EPS could come in a few pennies below of the low end of their guidance range"

    Aktsia kaupleb eelturul 6% miinuspoolel, $ 50,75 kandis.
  • Kui jaemüüjatega jätkata, siis vastupidiselt tõstis eile oma prognoose PVH, nentides Calvin Kleini ja Tommy Hilfigeri äritegevuse tugevust (mis korvavad Heritage Brandsi spordirõivaste nõrkust).

    PVH raises Q4 EPS guidance to $1.08-1.10 from $1.03-1.05 vs $1.07 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; sees FY13 EPS of $5.90-6.00 vs. the $5.95 consensus

    Aktsia viimase aja tugevust arvestades olid esiteks ootused ilmselt kõrgemad ning teiseks tõdeti, et kogu järgmise aasta kasumikasv peaks tulema teisel poolaastal, kuna H1 survestavad marginaale jätkuvalt kõrged tootekulud ning teiseks euro oodatav nõrgenemine dollari suhtes, mistõttu kaupleb aktsia hetkel üle 2% madalamal.

  • November Business Inventories +0.3% vs +0.5% Briefing.com consensus
  • Energiasektor ka täna surve all, kuid tõenäoliselt kaupleb õhtuks kõrgemal. Mõnes nimes on juba bidi näha.
  • Volume alert: Diamond Foods jumps to HoD on spike in volume
  • Molycorp: Spiking on rumor that Singapore Investment Corp looking to sign $900 mln investment MOU with MCP
  • Hot Topic Director/Investor buys 33K shares at ~7.00-7.03
  • Headline crossing wires suggesting the EU Iran oil embargo will be delayed by 6 mos
  • LiveDeal: Isaac Capital discloses 17.2% stake in 13D filing
  • Headline crossing that House will vote on January 18 to increase debt limit
  • Pimco's Bill Gross says fund has Treasuries holding to most in 13 months

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