Börsipäev 25. jaanuar - Investeerimine - Foorum - LHV finantsportaal

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Börsipäev 25. jaanuar

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  • Eilne sentiment oli turgudel veidi negatiivsem, kuigi eurotsooni PMId andsid jaanuarikuu aktiivsuse kohta pigem positiivset tagasisidet. Ent jätkuv patiseis Kreeka võla restruktureerimise osas ning IMFi allapoole revideeritud globaalne majanduskasvu ootus koormas meeleolu. Arvestades aga seda hoogu, millega karud USA avanedes olid valmis revanši võtma, siis kokkuvõttes kujunes päev üllatavalt rahulikuks ning pullide ostujõud suutis USA indeksid üsna nulli lähedale tagasi vedada. Volatiilsus on viimasel ajal märkimisväärselt alanenud ja selline keskkond sobib investoritele juba oluliselt rohkem, iseküsimus kas pärast jaanuari rallit ja suurt määramatust Euroopa osas ollakse nõus tagasi turgudele naasma või positsioone täiendama.

    Tänasest makrokalendrist võiks välja tuua Saksamaa IFO indeksid kell 11.00, Inglise keskpanga eelmise kohtumise protokolli avaldamise kell 11.30, Suurbritannia neljanda kvartali SKT kell 11.30, USAs detsembris pooleliolnud kinnisvaratehingute muutuse kell 17.00 ja FOMC intressimääraotsuse kell 19.30.

    Oma majandustulemused raporteerivad enne turgu muuhulgas Ericsson, Boeing, ConocoPhilips, SAP, United Tech, WellPoint. Pärast turgu saabuvad aga Netflix, SanDisk.

    USA indeksite futuurid on hetkel kauplemas 0,3% plusspoolel.
  • Bloomberg kirjutab, et Roche tahab 5,7 miljardi USD eest Illuminat üle võtta:
    Roche Holding AG (ROG) offered about $5.7 billion in cash for Illumina Inc. (ILMN) to bolster cancer-drug sales, the third time since 2007 the Swiss drugmaker has made a hostile bid for a U.S. company.

    Roche proposed paying $44.50 a share for Illumina, 18 percent more than yesterday’s closing price. It will put the offer directly to shareholders after the San Diego-based company was “unwilling to participate in substantive discussions,” Roche said in a statement today.
  • Kuna Apple'i tulemused tulid tugevalt üle ootuste, siis tõenäoliselt saab sellest olulist kasu ka Apple'i seadmeid komplekteeriv maailma üks suurimaid elektroonikatootjaid Hon Hai Precision. Tegu on Taiwani ettevõttega, mis kaupleb nii Taiwani börsil kui ka Londonis (sümbol HHPD). Londonis on aktsia täna 3%-5% plussis.

    Aktsia viimase 5 aasta graafik:

    Aktsia kaupleb ca 10.5x 2012. aasta ja 9x 2013. aasta kasumit. Analüütikute konsensusootuse kohaselt võib ettevõte oma kasumeid aastal 2012 kasvatada 26%, aastal 2013 15% ja aastal 2014 veel 12%. Suurimaks probleemiks marginaalide langus, tugev surve palkade tõusule ja tootmistehaste kolimisega Hiina rannikult sisemaale (et alandada palgatõusu survet) kaasnevad probleemid.
  • Germany Jan IFO Business Climate 108.3 vs 107.2 in Dec (ootus 107,6). Jooksva olukorra hinnang 116,3 vs oodatud 116,8 (detsembris 116,7). Ootuste indeks 100,9 vs oodatud 99,0 (detsembris 98,4).

  • Suurbritannia majandus kasvas neljandas kvartalis 0,8% võrreldes aastataguse perioodiga, mis ühtis ka konsensuse ootusega. Kvartali baasil aga kujunes langust -0,2% vs prognoositud -0,1%.
  • BOE liikmed eelistasid ühehäälselt intressimäärade ja valitsuse võlakirjade ostuprogrammi samaks jätmist 275 miljardile naelale. Osad liikmed tõdesid siiski vajadust tulevikus QEd suurendada.
  • Roche (MCap!) ILMN (MCap!) peaks olema väikestviisi bettimiseks. Natuke parem kui aastatagune Sanofi for Genz saaga.
    Lihtsalt mõte...
  • Gapping up
    In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: CA +15% (also announces enhanced capital allocation program targeting return of $2.5 billion to shareholders through fiscal year 2014), TXT +7.5%, AAPL +7.3%, SWFT +5.5% (light volume), DAL +5%, TPX +4.7%, LCC +3.9%, STLD +1.9%, COP +1.3%, .

    M&A related: ILMN +32.8% (Roche to acquire all outstanding shares of ILMN for $44.50 per share, also upgraded to Outperform at Robert W. Baird), PSS +13.3% (higher on light volume as takeover speculation continues with WWW mentioned as potential acquirer in article out overnight), WLT +2.5% (Bloomberg.com article discusses WLT valuation and continued potential for a takeover).

    Several AAPL related names are lifting following the co's blow-out qtr: TQNT +7.1%, CRUS +5.7%, ARMH +4%, BRCM +3.9%, BMC +3.8%, NUAN +3.3%, SNDK +2.9%, ZAGG +2.3%, SWKS +1.6%.

    ILMN peers are seeing notable early strength following RHHBY takeover news: PACB +26.6%, GNOM +23.6%, AFFX +10.3%, LIFE +9.6%.

    Other news: NBG +7%, RDN +5.8% (Radian commutes $12.9 billion reinsurance portfolio and cedes $1.8 billion of public finance risk to Assured Guaranty), WPRT +2.5% (positive mention at MadMoney).

    Analyst comments: BCEI +6.2% (initiated with a Buy at Stifel Nicolaus), EAT +1.6% (upgraded to Buy from Hold at KeyBanc), DNDN +1.6% (Dendreon initiated with a Hold at Cantor ), SBUX +1.2% (Starbucks upgraded to Outperform from Perform at Oppenheimer).
  • Gapping down
    In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: FBC -29.1%, ERIC -15.7%, FIO -10.3%, MRCY -10.2%, RKT -7.7%, TEL -6.9% (light volume), RES -6.2%, WLP -5.6% (also increases dividend by 15% and declares first quarter 2012 dividend of $0.2875 per share), GLW -5.3%, NVDA -5%, ATI -4.7%, REDF -4.5% (light volume), NVS -3.7%, AMD -3.2%, GWW -2.7% (light volume), NSC -2.6%, ALTR -2.5%, BA -1.1%, YHOO -0.6%.

    Select financial related names showing weakness: LYG -4.1%, RBS -3.2%, HBC -2.2%, DB -1.5%, CS -1.2%, BAC -0.7%.

    A few oil/gas related names showing early weakness: E -2.7%, RDS.A -1.6%, BP -0.9%, .

    Other news: ALU -9.8% (trading lower with ERIC), WPZ -3.5% (Williams Partners announces public offering of 6.5 mln common shares).

    Analyst comments: BHI -1.3% (light volume, downgraded to Accumulate from Buy at Global Hunter), POT -1.2% (downgraded to Sell from Hold at Dahlman Rose), MCD -0.7% (downgraded to Perform from Outperform at Oppenheimer).
  • More of the Same
    By James "Rev Shark" DePorre
    Jan 25, 2012 | 8:21

    Leaders don't create followers, they create more leaders.
    --Tom Peters

    By all measures Apple (AAPL) posted a stellar earnings report last night. So will Apple's leadership will create more leadership and keep the broad market running higher, or is this a company-specific event that will have little sympathetic effect beyond a few suppliers? Apple's report was great, but does it signal any real change for other stocks?

    So far this morning the action is not nearly as frothy as it was initially last night. AAPL has a major weighting in the Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100, both of which are gapping up, but the S&P 500 is actually indicated slightly lower in the early going as downgrades of Goldman Sachs (GS) and Morgan Stanley (MS) are on the wire and financials are seeing some pressure.

    Clearly AAPL is great for AAPL, but this market still has to deal with extended technical conditions and a weak foundation -- one earnings report isn't going to help all that much. In fact, even if AAPL continues to run higher it may trigger some "sell the news" action in the broader market. If stocks are unable to gain further traction on the AAPL news, watch for the sellers to become more aggressive. This is a very dangerous juncture here as AAPL may actually cause even more complacency when we are already battling a large supply of it.

    The president's State of the Union address should have little market impact today. There was some talk about green energy, gas and oil but nothing particular new. The big moves in some of the natural gas plays I mentioned yesterday are probably mostly over. What is clear from the president is that there will be continued assaults on preferential tax treatment of capital gains and dividends. That certainly isn't market-friendly but it is vague, uncertain and unsupported enough not to have any near-term impact.

    The FOMC interest rate decision is on deck and market players will be watching closely for any hints about further quantitative easing. There have been few hints lately that anything in that regard is forthcoming. The likelihood is that the Fed will maintain its current stance and have little market impact, but even subtle changes in language can have a major market impact, so we'll have to be ready for that news.

    Overall we are pretty much in the same position we have been for a week now. AAPL earnings obviously helped sentiment but we are still technically extended and losing momentum. The flat action is helping us to consolidate and we obviously have some very strong underlying support, but we have not been able to make much upside progress and we have to watch for profit-taking to pick up should we continue to sputter.

    Although I've been looking for weakness lately, I've been sticking with short-term longs and some quick trades. Until the dip-buyers step aside, there isn't much opportunity on the short side. On the other hand, the straight-up action for over a month is leaving us with fewer and fewer entry points for longer-term trades. We have had some very good trading and some stock-picking opportunities recently but it is becoming more challenging as we have had little rest.

    We'll see if the good AAPL report turned out to be the turning point that many have been anticipating, but I'm going to make sure the bears prove themselves before they earn my respect. Stay nimble -- it should be increasingly bumpy.
  • Greenlight Capital halted, pending the release of material news
  • December Pending Home Sales Change -3.5% vs -3.0% Briefing.com consensus

  • Bolt Technology reports Q2 revenues of $14.58 mln vs $10.84 mln CIQ 2 estimate consensus; BOLT reported Q2 EPS of $0.23/share vs $0.15/share 2 estimate consensus
  • Greenlight Capital: David Einhorn, Greenlight Capital fined 7.2 mln for trading on inside information - CNBC
  • Fed leaves rates unchanged at 0.00-0.25%, as expected
    Fed sees 'exceptionally low' rates through at least late 2014
    Fed expects to remain 'highly accommodative'
  • ymeramees
    Roche (MCap!) ILMN (MCap!) peaks olema väikestviisi bettimiseks. Natuke parem kui aastatagune Sanofi for Genz saaga.
    Lihtsalt mõte...

    Päris hea mõte oli.
  • Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke Press Conference- FOMC will always trump projection of interest rates but the projection should lay out a road map for market participants
  • Netflix prelim $0.73 vs $0.55 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; revs $876 mln vs $857.22 mln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate
  • Netflix sees Q1 ($0.49)-(0.16) vs ($0.29) Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; sees revs $842-877 mln vs $845.66 mln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate
  • Citrix Systems prelim $0.78 vs $0.76 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; revs $619 mln vs $618.54 mln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate
  • SanDisk prelim $1.29 vs $1.26 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; revs $1.58 bln vs $1.57 bln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate

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