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Börsipäev 3. veebruar

Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse

  • Liikumised jäid eile turul suhteliselt tagasihoidlikuks. Stoxx 600 lõpetas 0,2% kõrgemal, S&P 500 aga 0,1% plussis, kui ühest küljest suutis Hispaania müüa soovitust suuremas mahus võlakirjasid ning seda varasemast madalamate laenukulude juures (pisut kõrgemad siiski eelmise päeva sulgemistasemest), teisalt aga jäädi tõenäoliselt ettevaatlikuks enne tänast USA tööjõuraportit. Midagi uut Ben Bernanke kõne eelarvekomitee ees ei sisaldanud, kandes sarnaselt negatiivse alatooniga sõnumit USA majanduse kohta nagu möödunud nädala FOMC intressimäära otsuse järel. Ühtlasi toonitas ta vajadust tegeleda riigi fiskaalsete probleemidega.

    “…over the past few months, indicators of spending, production, and job-market activity have shown some signs of improvement.....but the sluggish expansion has left the economy vulnerable to shocks,”

    Täna avaldatakse mitmel pool Euroopas teenindussektori jaanuari PMI indekseid...eurotsooni oma kell 11.00, Suurbritannia oma kell 11.28. Euroopa statistikast avalikustatakse lisaks kell 12.00 eurotsooni detsembri jaemüügi muutus. Olulisem makro jääb USA poolele, kus kell 15.30 raporteeritakse jaanuaris loodud töökohtade arv (ootus 155K vs 200k detsembris) ning töötusemäär. Kell 17.00 oodatakse teenindussektori jaanuari ISM indeksit ja detsembri tehaste tellimuste muutust.

    USA indeksite futuurid kauplevad hetkel nullis.
  • Hiina non-manufacturing PMI oli jaanuaris 52,9 ehk veidi halvem kui detsembri 56,0. Samas HSBC koostatav PMI indeks püsis 52,5 punktil (dets 52,5).

  • Prantsusmaa teenindussektori PMI 52,3 vs oodatud 51,7 (dets 51,7), Itaalia 44,8 vs oodatud 45,1 (dets 44,5), Hispaania 46,1 vs oodatud 43,0 (dets 42,1), Saksamaa 53,7 vs oodatud 54,5 (dets 54,5)
  • Eurotsooni teenindussektori PMI 50,4 vs oodatud 50,5 ning 50,5 detsembris.
  • UK teenindussektori PMI sarnaselt töötlevale tööstusele tublisti üle ootuste ning kõrgeim näit alates märtsist. Jaanuari PMI 56,0 vs oodatud 53,5 (dets 54,0). Markiti sõnul on jaanuari statistika viitamas majanduslanguse ühe vähenevale tõenäosusele.
  • Mis see nüüd siis tähendab - Euroopa pidi ju juba raudkindlalt recessionis olema? USA-s ei tulnud ja kas nüüd siis ka Euroopa osas täielik petmine? Mis toimub?
  • pops
    EMU PMI detsembris 48,8?

    jah, see vist revideeriti madalamale. Bloomberg igatahes seda ei kajastanud.
  • Hungarian flag-carrier Malev announced on Friday that it had stopped operating because its liquidity situation has become unsustainable and all its flights had been grounded as of 0500 GMT on Friday.
    The airline had been placed under extraordinary protection from creditors and a receiver was appointed earlier this week.
  • 113366
    Hungarian flag-carrier Malev announced on Friday that it had stopped operating because its liquidity situation has become unsustainable and all its flights had been grounded as of 0500 GMT on Friday.
    The airline had been placed under extraordinary protection from creditors and a receiver was appointed earlier this week.

    Isegi sellega korra Budapestist Bucharesti lennatud. Lennusaatjad olid kõik mehed ja sellised tahumatu olekuga karvased vennad. Ei tea, aga millegipärast tuli Borat meelde...
  • Eurotsooni jaemüük vähenes detsembris aastaga -1,6% ehk oodatud -1,3%st pisut enam. Novembri näitaja revideeriti aga -2,5% pealt -1,5%le.
  • Aeterna Zentaris reports 'positive' updated Phase 1 trial results for AEZS-108 in castration- and taxane-resistant prostate cancer

    Co reported 'positive' updated results for the Phase 1 portion of its ongoing Phase 1/2 study in castration- and taxane-resistant prostate cancer (CRPC) with AEZS-108 (zoptarelin doxorubicin), the co's targeted cytotoxic luteinizing hormone-releasing hormone analog. Data showed that AEZS-108 was well tolerated and demonstrated early evidence of antitumor activity in men with CRPC.
  • Gapping down
    In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: THQI -25% (also announces business realignment), APKT -13.7% (also downgraded to Hold at Needham, downgraded to Underperform from Neutral at Mizuho), EW -8.3% (also downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Wells Fargo), EL -7.2%, ATML -6.9%, COLM -5%, WYNN -4%, ARR -2.8% (announces estimated Q4 results and 22 mln share stock offering), CYMI -2.2%, VRTX -2% (also downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Goldman, downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Cowen), HAYN -1% (ticking lower), CAVM -0.9%, (light volume).

    Other news: MNKD -8.9% (prices 31.25 mln units consisting of 1 share of common stock and a warrant to purchase 0.6 of a share of its common stock at $2.40 per unit), NBG -7.5% (still checking, potential weakness on continued Greece rescue plan speculation), BBEP -5% (announces offering of 8 mln common units), PAY -3% (still checking), MGM -0.7% (announced the launch of a proposed amendment to its aggregate $3.5 billion senior credit facilities).

    Analyst comments: OPEN -2.3% (downgraded to Hold from Buy at ThinkEquity), RIMM -2% (downgraded to Underperform from Hold at Jefferies), CVC -1.1% (Cablevision downgraded to Underweight from Neutral at JP Morgan), EP -0.6% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Citigroup).
  • January Nonfarm Payrolls 243K vs 155K Briefing.com consensus; December revised to 203K from 200K
    January Nonfarm Private Payrolls 257K vs 168K Briefing.com consensus
    January Unemployment 8.3% vs 8.5% Briefing.com consensus; Prior 8.5%
    January Hourly Earnings +0.1% vs +0.2% Briefing.com consensus; Prior +0.2%
    January Average Workweek 34.5 vs 34.4 Briefing.com consensus; Prior 34.4

  • Gapping up
    In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: INFN +17.6%, (also upgraded to Neutral from Underweight at JP Morgan), ZOLT +10.5%, TRMB +10.1%, SIMO +7.9%, TSYS +7.6% (light volume), DRIV +7.5%, ACLS +7.5%, SUN +7.2%, PKI +6.9%, GNW +6.1%, GILD +5.5%, SIMG +5.3%, NSR +4.9%, N +4%, TSN +3.1%, BT +3.1%, WY +3.1%, TTWO +1.8%, AXL +1.4%, GLW +1.0%, MCHP +0.8%, BEBE +0.4% (light volume), NVLS +0.3%.

    M&A related: BRCD +2.9% (Blackstone looking into LBO of BRCD, according to reports).

    A few financial related names showing modest strength: IRE +3.5%, STD +2.9%, CS +2%, BBVA +1.3%, HBC +1.2%, BAC +0.9%, .

    Other news: THLD +62.8% (light volume, Threshold Pharma and Merck KGaA announce global agreement to co-develop and commercialize Phase 3 Hypoxia-Targeted drug TH-302), SNE +9.4% (traded higher overseas), GMXR +6.5% (continued strength following yesterday's 60%+ surge higher), IDIX +4.6% (announces removal of the partial clinical hold on HCV Nucleotide Inhibitor, IDX184), IAG +4.4% (declares rare earth inferred resource of 467 million tonnes at a grade of 1.65% TREO), ZNGA +3.5% (continued strength following yesterday's 15% pop higher), SQNM +2.2% (Sequenom study published in Genetics in Medicine demonstrates Sequenom CMM Maternit21 test accurately detects two additional fetal trisomies), ARMH +2.2% (still checking), URBN +2.1% (announced the appointment of Tedford Marlow as Chief Executive Officer, Urban Outfitters Group, upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Janney Mntgmy Scott), MYGN +1.3% (Myriad Genetics Prolaris Test shown to significantly predict biochemical recurrence risk after prostatectomy), AGN +0.9% (positive mention on MadMoney).

    Analyst comments: NOV +2.2% (upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Morgan Stanley), DNDN +1.2% (light volume, upgraded to Neutral from Underperform at BofA/Merrill), THOR +0.8% (initiated with a Buy at ThinkEquity).
  • Labour participation rate tuli kuuga taas 0,3 protsendipunkti võrra alla, mille arvelt siis ka töötusemäär parem
  • Huvitav, mille arvelt see tuleb? Kas lootusetute osakaal tõusnud? Või on sõjajärgsete beebibuumerite pensionile jäämine suurenenud? Või midagi muud? Kui te leiate sellele kusagilt viiteid, siis oleksin tänulik.
  • Eks põhjuseid ole palju ja siin artiklis on nendest mõned välja toodud. Huvitaval kombel on langus kirjutatud viimasel ajal just mustanahaliste naiste arvele. Via CEPR

    The drop in participation was entirely among women and especially black women. (Among married women, employment rose by 194,000, so this was not a case of women as second earners dropping out of the labor force.) Participation numbers among white women fell by 199,000, a decline of 0.2 percentage points. The drop among black women was 164,000, a drop of 1.2 percentage points. These monthly numbers are highly erratic, and it is likely that at least part of this drop will be reversed in future months. Nonetheless there had been a trend of declining participation rates among both white and black women even prior to the November plunge. This suggests that there is a real issue of women losing access to jobs; although the December figures may show some reversal.
  • Threshold Pharma and Merck KGaA (MKGAY.PK) announce global agreement to co-develop and commercialize Phase 3 Hypoxia-Targeted drug TH-302

    Co announces that a global agreement was signed with Merck KGaA, Darmstadt, Germany, to co-develop and commercialize TH-302, Threshold's small molecule hypoxia-targeted drug. Co will receive $25 mln upfront, plus further potential milestones and royalties.

    A.Feuerstein->Decent deal terms, especially considering ph 2 pancreatic cancer data due mid this month.
    Conversely, why would Merck KGaA strike a deal with $THLD now unless it had poz visbility into TH-302 pancreatic data coming mid-Feb?
  • Niisiis, tegemist on rohkem tehnilise languse kui töötuse sisulise vähenemisega. Siiski on sarnane muster tüüpiline tööhõive tsükli algusele, kus register puhastub eelmise buumi ajal töö leidnud ning hiljem töötuks jäänutest (buumi ajal kipuvad tööle ka need, kes seda muidu ei prooviks). Nendeks on reeglina nõrgemad turuosalised: naised, noored, vähemharitud.

    Sestap tsükli alguses väheneb töötus (%-s) jõuliselt, hiljem on edenemine vaevalisem (kuna töötahteliste hulk kasvab, siis töötajate % autom. väheneb), kuigi majandus loob töökohti samaväärselt.
  • Rooting for Weakness
    By James "Rev Shark" DePorre
    Feb 03, 2012 | 8:22 AM EST | 28 Comments

    "It's just a job. Grass grows, birds fly, waves pound the sand. I beat people up." --Muhammad Ali

    Early indications are positive as we await the very important monthly jobs report. With the market running straight up on diminishing volume for weeks, the risk of a sell-the-news reaction to the report is high. Given how aggressive the dip buyers have been for quite a while, you have to wonder how long any pullback might last.

    I can come up with a long list of reasons why this market is about to weaken, but they will be the same reasons that haven't mattered for quite a while. Sticking with the trend has been the smart approach, even if you have don't believe there is good reason for it to persist.

    If you are inclined to be bearish, one important thing to keep in mind is that markets at their highs generally just don't reverse and go straight down. Topping action usually takes time. The dip-buyers who have had so much success don't just disappear, and the folks who have been riding momentum don't give up completely. It usually takes a few downward stabs before folks start to give up and become more aggressive about protecting profits. There can be some sudden drops when bids disappear but the first few pullbacks will usually find some support and we'll see some recoveries. It is only after a series of failed bounces that a real trend reversal might start to kick in.

    Even if we do finally have a bit of a reversal in the indices, one thing that I've found very encouraging so far in 2012 is that we have less correlated action. You still have to dig for opportunities but individual stock picking is working much better than it did in the latter half of 2011. Even when the indices aren't doing much, there are pockets of good trading action. The speculative action is better and we aren't hostages to the headlines out of Europe like we were for so long last year. That could change, but there is obviously a hunger for action and that is what makes for better trading.

    My approach to the market is to fight my natural inclination to call a top and keep hunting for long trades. As we become more technically extended and volume drops, it becomes increasingly difficult to put cash to work, so that actually puts me in a contrary position -- but it is far less dangerous than trying to actively short a market that refuses to go down.

    I have a few things on my long radar, such as the solar energy sector, but we'll see what the jobs report brings and go from there. I have to admit, I'm rooting for some weakness at this point because it would give us some better trading action if we had a little back-and-forth action to set some new things up.
  • Täpsustan oma mõtet: suur numbriline hüpe on suurem tööturu tegelikust paranemisest.

    Ilusatest numbritest ei maksaks teha järeldust, et Fed nüüd loobub plaanitud stiimulitest. Fed pole kommentaaride järgi siiani veendunud, et senitehtust tööturule tõuke andmiseks piisab. Ja õige kah!
  • Ei tea, kas siis täna testitakse 1350-t ka?
  • Huvitav, millest GM täna sedasi rallib? Infot?
  • Micron: Headlines crossing that CEO Appletoin died in a plane crash; stock is halted

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