Börsipäev 10. veebruar

Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse

  • Meediasse jõudnud uudised, et Kreeka on nõustunud troika nõudmistega, tõi turgudele kergelt positiivse sentimendi. Euroopa lõpetas poole protsendi jagu plussis ning USA sulgus samuti marginaalse tõusuga. Seda optimismi vähendas aga eilne eurotsooni rahandusministrite koosolek, kus Kreekale järgmise laenuabi andmiseks sooviti näha konkreetseid samme, mitte ainult lubadusi, et midagi kavatsetakse kärpida. Alustuseks tuleb detailsemalt välja tuua, kuidas struktuurseid kulutusi 325 miljoni euro ulatuses tänavu vähendatakse ning kiita seadusandlus pühapäeval heaks, mis võiks omakorda teha teed PSI kokkuleppele ning finantsabi heakskiitmisele eurotsooni rahandusministrite poolt järgmisel erakorralisel koosolekul 15. veebruaril. Võiks ju loota, et pärast seda liigub tähelepanu Kreekalt eemale, ent kuna mõnda aega on juba spekuleeritud, et summa peaks olema suurem võttes arvesse arvatust keerulisemat majandusolukorda, siis on raske uskuda, et Kreeka raha kätte saades radarilt ära kaob.

    Makrouudiste pool jääb täna õhukeseks, kui välja võiks tuua USA Michigani ülikooli tarbijasentimendi indeksi (kell 16.55).

    USA indeksite futuurid on tavapärase kerge miinuse asemel kauplemas täna veidi rohkem punases, kui ES teeb hetkel päeva põhjasid 0,5% miinuses.
  • Euro drops to lows as headlines cross that Greece party leader can't vote on bailout agreement

    USA futuurid selle peale protsendi jagu miinusesse vajunud ning EUR/USD samuti pihta saamas (-0,65% @ 1,3197 USd)
  • Taaskord artikkel, mis annab aimu PCLN võimalikest tulemustest:
    Liberty Media: Bloomberg discusses impact of Expedia's (EXPE) and TripAdvisor's (TRIP) earnings on LINTA
  • Wynn Resorts may be required to give largest shareholder access to its financial documents, according to reports


    Kas see WYNN-i suhteliselt raske käitumise põhjus?
  • Credit Suisse tõstab täna JDS Uniphase (JDSU) reitingu Hoia pealt Osta peale ja hinnasihi $ 15 pealt $ 17 peale

    Upgrading to Outperform with a $17 TP (25% implied upside). We are upgrading JDSU from Neutral to Outperform owing to (1) significant margin upside potential in its CommsTest and optical components segments, and (2) likely revenue upside drivers from JDSU’s less well known businesses (fiber lasers, gesture recognition, and color shifting inks). Anticipating clarity on these topics at the company’s upcoming analyst day we adjust our model; C12 remains $0.78 (consensus is $0.76) and raise C13 from $1.02 to $1.13 (consensus is $1.05). TP goes from $15 to $17 (15x our new C13 EPS est.)

    Margin upside in CommsTest & CCOP. JDSU’s 20-23% OPM target in its CommsTest business has stood out as both optimistic and lacking a well defined plan articulated by management. More recently the company’s 16- 20% OPM target in its CCOP segment also looks questionable given recent lower results. We anticipate JDSU will offer a detailed plan to achieve its goals in both segments at the analyst day that could drive estimates higher

    Analüütikud ootavad märkimisväärset marginaalide kasvu firma Commstest segmendist, aga juhtkonna 20-23% marginaalide siht on siiani silma jäänud kui liialt optimistlik ja määratlemata tegevuskavaga, aga anlüütikud usuvad, et varsti astel leidval analüütikute päeval kavatseb firma juhtkond selgitada oma eesmärkide saavutamisplaani detailsemalt, mis võib viia ka kõrgemate prognoosideni. Lisaks eelnevale ootavad analüütikud ka käibekasvu JDSU-i vähem tuntud segmentidest.

    Two near-term catalysts: analyst day & OFC. JDSU hosts an analyst day next Feb. 16 (invitation only); we expect management to address the math behind its path to higher OM. In addition, JDSU will present at the optical
    components trade show, OFC, in Los Angeles the week of March 5.

    Tegemist pole väga tugeva calliga, aga teatavat huvi võib positiivne reitingumuutus analüütikute päeva eel, mis toimub 16. veebruaril, siiski leida. Kõrgelt hinnatasemelt JDSU-d jahtima ei läheks, pigem vaataks sulgumishinna lähedalt.

    Eelturul kaupleb aktsia $ 13,90 juures, 0,8% plusspoolel.
  • Eesti ja Islandi börsid kahekesi veel Euroopas rohelised, vist kaugus Kreekast loeb nii palju...Kreekas juba-5%
  • Gapping up
    In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: ALU +16%, SWIR +12.5%, LNKD +8% (also announced the promotion of Kevin Scott to senior vice president of engineering), NXPI +6.4%, BRKS +6.3%, CBB +4.6% (also Cincinnati Bell to explore alternatives for Data Center business), BCS +4.4%, PMC +2% (ticking higher), CARB +1.7%, ATVI +1.1% (also added to Conviction Buy List at Goldman).

    Other news: CIE +25.1% (Cobalt International Energy announces successful pre-salt flow test offshore Angola), VPFG +8.7% (will replace SonoSite in the S&P SmallCap 600 index), AKRX +4.5% (will replace Blue Coat Systems in the S&P SmallCap 600 index), CBOE +3.9% (will replace Temple-Inland, Inc. (TIN) in the S&P MidCap 400 index), IRWD +1.7% (priced 5.25 mln shares at $15.09/share) .

    Analyst comments: JDSU +0.6% (upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Credit Suisse)
  • Gapping down
    In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: TRLG -25.7%, (also downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Citigroup), VALV -21.9% (thinly traded), XIDE -21.3%, NUAN -9.9%, LF -9.1%, UNIS -9% (also downgraded to Sell at MLV & Co; tgt lowered to $3), VVTV -7.7%, LYB -7.4%, GDI -6%, CPST -5%, FLO -4.6% (light volume), LGF -4.5% (light volume), EXPE -3.9%, XL -2.9% (light volume), AMKR -1.9%, TOT -1.5%.

    Select financial related names showing weakness: NBG -9.2%, ING -7.8%, DB -5.0%, CS -4.5%, RBS -4.0%, UBS -4.0%, STD -3.0%.

    Metals/mining stocks trading lower: MT -4.7%, BHP -3.6%, BBL -3.6%, RIO -2.9%, AUY -2.1%, VALE -2%, SLV -1.5%, GDX -1.4%, HL -1.2%, GLD -1%, NEM -0.9%.

    Select oil/gas related names showing early weakness:
    PBR -5%, CAM -2.7%, RDS.A -0.9%, BP -0.6%, SDRL -0.5%.

    Solar names are pulling back: YGE -4.4%, JASO -4.1%, TSL -4.1%, FSLR -3.6% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Collins Stewart).

    Other news: NGSX -36.3% (provides update on Qutenza patch for new indication to treat HIV-PN following FDA Advisory Committee Review), AMRS -10.6% (disclosed as discussed during the conference call that the co is in the process of raising additional equity financing; no longer forecasting positive cash flow in 2012), GSVC -10.2% (files form N-2 related to offering of 3 mln shares), EXEL -5.1% (announced an offering of 10 mln shares of common stock), EVEP -4.3% (announced 3.2 mln common unit offering), HALO -4.1% (filed for a mixed shelf securities offering for an undisclosed amount, announces proposed public offering of 6.8 mln shares of common stock), RMTI -3.1% (prices registered common stock offering at $9.50/share).

    Analyst comments: NCR -2.1% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Goldman), EA -2.1% (downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Macquarie), XCO -1.7% (downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Robert W. Baird).
  • The Pause That Refreshes
    By James "Rev Shark" DePorre
    Feb 10, 2012 | 8:50 AM

    "The Pause; that impressive silence, that eloquent silence, that geometrically progressive silence, which often achieves a desired effect where no combination of words, howsoever felicitous, could accomplish it." --Mark Twain

    There is no shortage of indicators lately showing that the market is at an extreme level and vulnerable to some sort of pause. Market players have ignored worries and stick with the upside momentum, but there is stumbling this morning as the European Union continues to struggle closing an austerity deal for Greece.

    The cynical bears are already saying that this will just setup another "Greece is saved" rally down the road. Of course, the dip buyers see nothing but another opportunity to continue buying. Jumping on an early pullback has been the way to coin gains lately.

    In view of how tenacious the underlying support has been lately, it would be naïve to worry that we could see any meaningful downside. If you are inclined to be defensive, the best approach is to wait to see what sort of bounce ensues and then sell only if opening levels are breached.

    According to SentimenTrader.com, Thursday was only the second time in 30 years that the S&P 500 has closed in the top 20% of its intraday range for five straight days while at a six-month high. The last time that was on March 20, 1998, and that ended up being a short-term top.

    The key point is that it isn't just hyperbole that the market has had tremendous underlying support. Support that tough doesn't suddenly disappear without good reason. Selling off this morning on Greece worries is more of an invitation to buy rather than panic sell, given how ineffectual the pullbacks have been lately.

    The most important thing to keep in mind about dip-buying is that it tends to persist and doesn't disappear until the dip-buyers are badly stung a few times. Once we have a failed bounce or two, the dip buyers are likely to be less confident and the chances of more aggressive downside will grow.

    So far, we haven't had any failed bounces but we will have a good opportunity today on this soft open. If the bulls are turned back and we close weak, we will need to raise our caution levels quickly. But over-anticipating downside has been one of the easiest mistakes to make lately.

    I've been in a more defensive posture lately, not because the market is doing something wrong and I'm bearish, but because I'm finding it more and more challenging to find good buyable charts. When we have such lopsided action, my methodology of taking partial profits into strength results in higher levels of cash because there are so few new places to deploy it until the market rests.

    I don't expect this market to fall apart and go straight down, but sooner or later we will have some consolidation and resets and that will give us a new crop of opportunities. For now, we just have to be patient as these overbought conditions eventually dissipate. A poor open and then a failed bounce would end up being very bullish for the longer term.
  • Roubini, ehk mees, kes on ette ennustanud 6 viimasest 3st majanduslangusest on keeranud aktsiate osas positiivseks.

    Lubage illustreerida antud härrasmehe varasemaid vallatusi... ;)

  • Ühekorra saab ehk ikka õigele suunale pihta. Ega ta ju meelega valesti ei paku?:)
  • ja kui Roubini üldse midagi ei pakuks, siis poleks teistel millegi põhjal investeerimisotsuseid langetada
  • Aaron's strength follows Bloomberg.com article suggests founder/Chairman would support a sale of co at right price
  • Michigani tarbijasentiment arvatust pisut nõrgem

    February Michigan Sentiment 72.5 vs 74.0 Briefing.com consensus; January 75.0

  • Peaministri sõnavõtt tõstis fooliumi müüki?
    Võiks aktsiaid ka ära mainida:)
  • Kes seemneid ei söö ,see aktsiaid ei osta!
  • kuna turud on harjumatult punased, siis... :)

    Headlines crossing that President Obama will make a statement at 12:15 PM Eastern time
  • Follow up to 10:08 headline: Obama to make statement at 12:15 regarding women's preventive health services
  • Priceline.com displays consistent opening relative strength as it begins to eye a retest of its key multi-mth range high near the $550.00 area overhead

    EXPE ikka punane, PCLN ikka väga tugev?
  • Walgreens trades to highs of the day, hearing strength attributed to renewed rumors they have reached a deal with Express Scripts (ESRX)
  • Reuters: Greek Police Union Wants To Arrest EU/IMF Officials

    Väga õige, kõik türmi :)
  • JDSU pakkus täna avanemisel täitsa kena põrke. Aktsia avanes $ 13,90 pealt ja tegi kohe peale avanemist kiire põrke $ 14,25 juurde. JDSU tuli küll ka oma avanemistaseme juurde tagasi, aga nüüd on taastunud ja kaupleb $ 14,16 juures, 2,7% plusspoolel.

  • Motorola Mobility moves to highs; strength attributed to reports that EU is seen approving the GOOG deal
  • Just passing along but Greek PM Papademos headlines crossing; says that the bailout must be approved or the country faces catastrophe; says whoever disagrees with the bailout deal cannot stay in the government
  • Headlines crossing that S&P has downgraded 34 out of 37 Italian Banks that it covers
  • Headlines crossing that S&P has lowered its rating on UniCredit to BBB+/A-2 from A/A-1

  • Tandy Brands reports Q2 EPS of $0.39 vs $0.10 in the prior year ago preiod; revenues rise to $45.4 mln vs $42.8 mln in Q2 of last year
  • Lucas Papademos warns of default chaos.
    Kreeklased ähvardavad pidevalt kaosega, järelikult tunnevad ennast selle lehmkauplemise juures hästi.
  • Douglas Kass
    Don't like action. Shorted qqq 62.52 and reshorted spy April 132 calls.
  • President Obama is set to release his FY13 budget on Monday; headlines crossing that the projected deficit is $901 bln
  • KV.A tundub siit $1.60 juurest päris hea kiire skalp, stopp paigas.
  • Greece: S&P notes a retroactive CAC ("Collective Action Clauses") would constitute selective default- In the case of the Greek parliament passing legislation that would permit the amendment of Greek-law governed outstanding sovereign debt issues to retroactively include CACs, we would lower the issue ratings on debt issues concerned to 'D' from 'CC'.
  • Market View- TVIX, VXX ETFs HoD with CBOE VIX reading now +11.25% @ 20.73

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