Börsipäev 22. veebruar - Investeerimine - Foorum - LHV finantsportaal

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Börsipäev 22. veebruar

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  • Võrdlemisi väsinud olekuga tundus eilne liikumine USA turgudel olevat. Dow Jones täitis ülesande ületada pärast ligi nelja aasta pikkust pausi taas 13000 punkti piir, kuid siis lasid pullid kaitsel langeda ning päeva teine pool tõi kerge müügisurve, millest sessiooni lõpuks taastuti.

    Öösel avalikustatud Hiina veebruarikuu töötleva tööstuse PMI näit (HSBC koostatav) paranes jaanuari 48,8 punktilt 49,7 punktile, jäädes mitmendat kuud siiski alla 50 punkti ning viidates sellega aktiivsuse jätkuvale langusele. Murettekitavam oli indeksi üks komponente – eksporditellimused, mis langes 50,4 punktilt 47,5 punktile, indikeerides välismajandusest tulenevat nõrkust.

    Töötleva tööstuse ja teenuste sektori PMI indekseid avalikustatakse täna ka Euroopas, kulmineerudes eurotsooni ühise näitajaga kell 11.00. Kell 11.30 avalikustatakse Inglise keskpanga viimase kohtumise protokoll, kell 12.00 eurotsooni detsembri tööstustellimuste muutus ja kell 17.00 USA jaanuari olemasolevate majade müük.

    USA indeksite futuurid kauplevad hetkel 0,2% plusspoolel.
  • Saksamaa PMId oodatust pisut nõrgemad ning pärast jaanuari taastumist pööranud taas ninad alla. Töötleva tööstuse veebruari PMI 50,1 vs oodatud 51,5 (jaanuaris 51,0) ja teenuste oma 52,6 vs oodatud 53,9 (jaanuaris 53,7).
  • Prantsusmaa töötleva tööstuse PMI veebruaris 50,3 vs oodatud 52,0 (jaanuaris 52,3), teenindussektori oma 50,2 vs oodatud 49,0 (jaanuaris 48,5).
  • Hiljuti võrdlemisi nõrkade tulemustega tulnud Peugeot aktsia on kauplemas ligi 10% kõrgemal uudise peale, et viimane otsib strateegilise liidu sõlmimiseks uut koostööpartnerit ning ühe nimena on välja käidud General Motors. Marketwatch kirjutab veidi pikemalt.
  • Eurotsooni töötleva tööstuse veebruari PMI 49,0, mis oli küll veidi parem jaanuari 48,8 punktist, kuid jäi siiski oodatud 49,4 punktile alla. Teenindussektori poolel oli indeks veebruaris 49,4 vs prognoositud 50,6 (jaanuaris 50,4).
  • Eurotsooni detsembri tööstustoodangu tellimuste muutus -1,7% vs oodatud -2,8%.
  • Fitch alandas Kreeka reitingu CCC pealt C peale, pressiteade on leitav siit.

    In Fitch's opinion, the exchange, if completed, would constitute a 'distressed debt exchange' (DDE) in line with its criteria and consequently yesterday's announcements set in motion the agency's process for reviewing Greece's issuer and debt securities ratings. The sovereign IDR has accordingly been lowered to 'C' from 'CCC' indicating that default is highly likely in the near term. The ratings of the securities subject to the exchange have also been lowered to 'C' from 'CCC'.
    Fitch considers that the proposal to reduce Greece's public debt burden via a debt exchange with private creditors will, if completed, constitute a rating default, and result in the country's IDR being lowered to 'Restricted Default' ('RD') upon completion. The ratings of GGBs affected by the exchange, including those not tendered but restructured under CACs, which are expected to be imposed retrospectively on bonds issued under Greek law, will also be lowered to 'D' ('default') at this time.
    Shortly after completion of the exchange with the issue of new securities, Greece's sovereign rating will be moved out of the 'RD' category and re-rated at a level consistent with the agency's assessment of its post-default structure and credit profile.

  • Gapping down
    In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: LL -9.4% (ticking lower), TRAK -8%, NFX -7.7% (light volume), YGE -7.7% (lowers Q4 shipping guidance), DELL -7.2% (also downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Citigroup, downgraded at Needham), CELL -5.5% (also announces logistic services customer transition; updates guidance), REXX -5.4%, PTNR -5%, MGM -4.2%, CAKE -4%, CNK -3.4% (light volume), WPRT -3.2% (also announces 5 mln offering of common shares in U.S. and Canada), TOL -3%, NBR -2.8%, BAS -1.9%, FST -1.3%.

    Select financial related names showing weakness: NBG -8.1% (Fitch downgraded Greece ratings), ING -1.8%, UBS -1.3%, CS -1.3%, C -1.2%, BCS -1.0%.

    Other news: IFT -5.6% (discloses it received a subpoena by SEC), NRF -4.8% (announces public offering of 15 mln shares of common stock), TWO -2.7% (announces public offering of common stock), VOD -2.2%and GSK -1.2% (still checking).

    Analyst comments:
    WBMD -3.7% (downgraded to Sell from Neutral at Goldman), WTS -1.1% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Sterne Agee), GILD -1.1% (downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Bernstein).
  • Gapping up
    In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: FIRE +13.1%, GRMN +9.6% (also announces favorable ruling in patent litigation initiated by Triangle Software against GRMN), CHS +9.3%, TXRH +8.6% (also increases stock repurchase authorization to $100 million and increases quarterly dividend by 12.5%), PKT +7.1%, BRCD +6%, YNDX +4.8%, HLF +3.9%, INTU +3.4%, RRC +2.7% (light volume), LZB +2.1%, GNK +1.9% (light volume), FTE +1.8%, DX +0.4%.

    Other news: BIOD +33.8% (thinly traded, still checking), GNOM +6.7% (still checking), CSIQ +6.2% (raises Q4 2011 shipment guidance to 430-440 MW), GM +0.3% (modestly higher following reports that the co and Peugot are talking about a manufacturing deal to lower EU losses).

    Analyst comments: URBN +2.4% (upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at BMO), BX +1% (ticking higher, upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Goldman)
  • What Lies Beneath
    By James "Rev Shark" DePorre
    Feb 22, 2012 | 8:42 AM

    "Character is like the foundation of a house -- it is below the surface." --Anonymous

    While the indices continue to hold up rather well, the action under the surface looks a little less healthy. A few big-caps such as Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT) and IBM (IBM) are keeping the indices running to recent highs while breadth on the Nasdaq has struggled with only 950 gainers to 1650 losers.

    The folks in the media made a fuss over the 13,000 level of the DJIA, and while there is some truth to the importance of round-numbers, studies show that the impact is limited and does not last long. In any event, most serious investors pay little attention to the Dow anyway, as it's a badly flawed, price-weighted index that does not do a good job of reflecting overall market action. The media has convinced the public that the Dow matters, and perhaps that helps to create some positive sentiment in the near term.

    The important point here is that the major indices continue to look healthy and are not doing anything wrong. The uptrend is intact and we are less overbought as we have churned a bit recently. We still have strong underlying support and the dip-buyers haven't given up.

    The indices are covering up poor action in many individual stocks, however. The big-caps are driving the indices while more and more small-caps struggle. Momentum is slowing in many of the hot-money names. LinkedIn (LNKD), for example, reversed hard Tuesday after hitting its highest point since August, and Baidu (BIDU) turned down hard and breached its 200-day simple moving average. The biotechnology sector, which has been a leader, is showing signs of a downturn. If it weren't for AAPL and some of the "old" technology names, the indices would look much worse.

    The bears are convinced that their arguments are going to suddenly start to matter now that the Greece bailout deal is done. It is a classic sell-the-news catalyst and there is no shortage of other negatives, particularly the problems in the Middle East and fast-climbing oil prices. Earnings season is over and it is going to be tougher to find positive catalyst since we can't rally endlessly on each new rumor that Greece is saved.

    So far, the market has done little wrong. If you focus on the price action, there isn't any major weakness yet and no reason to be overly bearish. The dip-buyers have not given up and we haven't even come close to testing major support levels. The action looks tired and slow, but it may be nothing more than healthy consolidation, which sets us up for another run.

    I will continue to hunt for new buys, but charts are deteriorating and that keeps me in higher levels of cash. One group I'm watching closely is precious metals as SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) and iShares Silver Trust (SLV) have formed cup-with-handle patterns over the last few months.
  • Kreeka 1-aastase võlakirja tulusus on täna saavutanud oma tipu 770% peal.
  • Weatherford: Hearing added to Buy List at Deutsche Bank

  • Apollo Group drops to lows; weakness attributed to letter from Senator Durbin to Higher Learning Commission regarding next month's review of University of Phoenix
  • Mõned tunnid tagasi avaldatud kinnisvarastatistika osutus prognoositust veidi nõrgemaks, millele lisaks korrigeeriti madalamale ka möödunud kuu näitajat

    January Existing Home Sales 4.57 mln vs 4.63 mln Briefing.com consensus; prior revised to 4.38 mln from 4.61 mln
  • Kuld hakkab lähipäevil testima tippu eurodes, see vist küll üldise sagimise kõrvalnähe
  • Community Health ticks lower as Herb Greenberg highlights negative call from CRT on stock; citing disappointing same store admissions
  • Google: CNBC reporting that 36 Attorneys General question GOOG's privacy policy; they are concerned about too much information being collected and that it could lead to possible identity theft
  • Analog Devices prelim $0.46 vs $0.48 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; revs $648 mln vs $662.28 mln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate
    Analog Devices sees Q2 $0.48-0.53 vs $0.55 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; sees revs $655-675 mln vs $683.61 mln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate
    Analog Devices increases quarterly dividend 20% to $0.30 from $0.25 per share

  • Polypore Intl prelim $0.58 vs $0.59 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; revs $191.0 mln vs $196.34 mln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate
  • Hewlett-Packard prelim $0.92 vs $0.87 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; revs $30 bln vs $30.75 bln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate
    Hewlett-Packard sees Q2 $0.88-0.91 vs $0.95 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; reaffirms FY12 EPS of at least $4.00 vs. $4.10 consensus

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