Börsipäev 30. juuni
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Päevasisene volatiilsus on USA turgudel kohati üsna arvestatav aga kokkuvõttes pole langused suuremat draamat suutnud luua ning üldjuhul kujuneb sessiooni teine pool esimesest positiivsemaks. Suvele iseloomulikult on tunda, kuidas suurem osa päevast ajab igavusest haigutama, kuid kuna lähinädalatel muutub tulemuste avaldamine taas aktiivsemaks, siis loodetavasti aitab mikro pilti veidi elavdada.
Euroopas seevastu tõi eelmine nädal kaasa sügavamaid langusi. Kuna EKP pole jõudnud veel midagi enamat peale intresside langetamise ette võtta, on näha kuidas viimasel ajal uuesti pehmenenud makro on hakanud kahjustama siinsete ettevõtete kindlustunnet ning toonud nad äraootavale seisukohale. See paraku valmistab pettumuse neile, kes otsivad eurotsooni majanduse kasvu kiirendavat katalüsaatorit.
USA turgudel on reedel tähistatava iseseisvuspäeva tõttu lühendatud töönädal, mistõttu avaldatakse igakuine tööjõuraport neljapäeval. Olulisematest sündmustest vääriks äramainimist ka Euroopa Keskpanga nõukogu istung. Ehkki selle raames muutust intressimäärades ei oodata, võib Mario Draghi pakkuda taas täiendavat infot eelmisel istungil avalikustatud programmide kohta.
Selle nädala olulisemad sündmused (Bloombergi konsensuse alusel)
Esmaspäev 30. juuni
• Jaapani maikuu tööstustoodang: tegelik kasv 0,8% vs oodatud 1,5% (aprillis 3,8% YoY)
• Saksamaa maikuu jaemüük: 0,8% MoM põrge pärast -0,9% langust aprillis
• Euroala maikuu M3 rahapakkumine: üsna stabiilne, aasta baasil kasv 0,8%
• Eurotsooni juuni esmane inflatsioon: aastase kasvutempo püsimine 0,5% peal
• USA Chicago töötleva tööstuse juuni PMI: langus 65,5 punktilt 63,0 punktile
• USA maikuu pooleliolevad kinnisvaratehingud: 1,2% MoM pärast 0,4% kasvu aprillis
Teisipäev 1. juuli
• Austraalia keskpanga intressimäära otsus: jäetakse samaks 2,5% peale
• Hiina töötleva tööstuse juuni ametlik PMI: tõus 0,2 punkti 51,0 punktini
• Saksamaa juuni töötuse määr: püsib 6,7% peal
• Eurotsooni töötleva tööstuse juuni lõplik PMI: sama, mis esialgselt avaldatud 51,9 punkti
• Suurbritannia töötleva tööstuse juuni PMI: marginaalne langus 56,8 punktini
• USA töötleva tööstuse juuni ISM: marginaalne tõus 55,8 punktini
• USA juuni annualiseeritud automüük: 16,3M vs 16,7M aprillis
Kolmapäev 2. juuli
• USA maikuu tehaste tellimused: -0,3% langus MoM, ilma kaitsetööstuseta +0,7%
• FEDi president Janet Yellen kõneleb finantsstabiilsuse teemal
• USA ADP juuni tööturu küsitlus: erasektoris 205 tuhat uut töökohta vs 179 tuhat mais
• USA maikuu tehaste tellimused: -0,3% langus pärast 0,7% kasvu aprillis
Neljapäev 3. juuli
• Rootsi keskpanga intressimäära otsus: 25 baaspunktine kärbe 0,5% peale pärast oodatust madalamat inflatsiooni
• Eurotsooni teenindussektori juuni lõplik PMI: sama, mis esialgselt avaldatud 52,8 punkti
• Suurbritannia teenindussektori juuni PMI: marginaalne langus 58,3 punktini
• Eurotsooni mai jaemüük: kasvutempo aeglustumine aasta baasil 2,4% pealt 1,8% peale
• Euroopa keskpanga intressimäära otsus: intressimäärad jäävad samaks, pressikonverentsil võivad selguda eelmisel korral välja käidud programmide detailid
• USA esmased töötu abiraha taotlused: 313K vs 312K nädal enne seda
• USA juunikuu tööjõuraport: 215K vs 217K mais, töötuse määr püsib 6,3% peal
• USA juunikuu teenindussektori ISM: püsib muutumatuna 56,3 punkti peal
Reede 4. Juuli
• Saksamaa maikuu tehaste tellimused: -1,1% langus pärast 3,1% kasvu aprillis (YoY 6,0%)
• USA turud on iseseisvuspäeva tõttu suletud
USA indeksite futuurid kauplevad hetkel ilma olulise muutuseta, Euroopa börsid on päeva alustamas 0,2% kõrgemal. -
Saksamaa jaemüük langes mais -0,6% võrreldes eelmise kuuga, mis osutus oodatud 0,8%st nõrgemaks. Aasta baasil oli aga kasvutempo parem.
Germany Retail Sales (YoY) (May): 1.9% actual vs 1.0% estimated; 3.2% prior (revised lower).
Germany Retail Sales (MoM) (May): -0.6% actual vs 0.8% estimated; -1.5% prior (revised lower). -
Tänased analüütikute kommentaarid Euroopas:
Fresenius Medical Care Cut to Underperform at Jefferies
Cape Rated New Overweight at JPMorgan; PT 350p (Close 291,25)
Syngenta Cut to Underweight vs Neutral at JPMorgan; Pt 250 (Close 333,5)
• Syngenta’s S/T trading likely to be challenging, JPMorgan says in note.
• JPMorgan cuts to underweight vs neutral, PT CHF250 vs CHF340
• Trims 2014 organic growth est. to 4% from 6% on lower corn seed, crop protection sales in North, South America
• Reduces 2014/15 EPS ests. by 5%/7%
• Brokerage sees below avg FCF generation potential in M/T
• Seeds business to weigh on group returns, sees slower growth outlook for global seeds mkt
• Says unlikely Syngenta to be target of M&A bid, agro sektor already consolidated, antitrust issues would be “extremely challenging”
British American Tobacco Removed From Citi’s Focus List Europe
Siemens Reinstated Buy at Citi; Added to Focus List
Beni Stabili Raised to Buy vs Neutral at Goldman; Pt 0,65 to 0,74 (Close 0,67)
Osram Raised to Neutral vs Underweight at JPMorgan; PT 35 (Close 34,8)
Solvay Raised to Outperform vs Neutral at Exane
Glanbia PLC Rated New Buy at BofAML; PT Eu13.70 (Close 11,09)
Ryanair Raised to Neutral vs Underperform at BofAML
Easyjet Cut to Underperform vs Neutral at BofAML
• EasyJet heading to “EPS cliff,” consensus upgrade cycle is over as yields weaken, BofAML says in note.
• EasyJet cut to underperform from neutral, PT lowered to 1,150p (22% downside) from 1,800p
• See FY15 EPS 75p vs consensus GBP1.30
• Ryanair raised to neutral from underperform, PT raised to EU7.50 (~8% upside) from EU7
• Ryanair shares fairly valued, may get some respite from new business customer focus, Web site enhancement; longer term will struggle with lack of capacity at in key Europe business airports
• “Struggle to see” how any low-cost airline shares will outperform given higher higher capacity, lower yields, higher fuel -
Euroala inflatsioon püsis juunis 0,5% peal, mis vastas analüütikute ootustele. Energiat ja toitu arvetamata kiirenes aastane kasvutempo 0,7% pealt 0,8%le (oodati 0,7%).
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Maailma suurima tuuleturbiinide tootja, Vestas Wind, aktsia rallib täna +4,9% (@ 280,2 DKK), kuna ettevõte sai 450 megavati suuruse tellimuse Electricite de France’i taastuvenergia üksuselt (tellimust kasutatakse USAs tuuleparkide rajamiseks). Tellimuse kohaletoimetamine peaks toimuma järgmisel aastal.
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JPMorgani TOP pickid teiseks poolaastaks. Link
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Tänased analüüsimajade reitingumuutused ja kommentaarid USA ettevõtete kohta:
* AES Corp : Barclays raises target price to $18 from $17; rating overweight
* Alaska Air Group Inc : Raymond James raises target to $110 from $108; outperform
* Allegheny Technologies Inc : Stifel raises target price to $50 from $45; rating buy
* Allstate Corp : Barclays raises target price to $68 from $65; rating overweight
* Altisource Residential Corp : Citigroup starts with neutral
* Amedisys : Deutsche Bank raises to hold from sell
* American Airlines Group : Raymond James raises target to $52 from $48; outperform
* Aon Plc : Barclays raises target price to $92 from $89; rating equal weight
* BB&T : Goldman Sachs raises target price to $44 from $43; rating buy
* Bebe : B. Riley cuts to neutral from buy rating
* Becton Dickinson : Barclays raises target price to $115 from $112; underweight
* British American Tobacco : Jefferies raises price target to $133; rating buy
* Brown & Brown : Barclays raises target price to $33 from $32; rating overweight
* CACI International : JP Morgan cuts price target to $83 from $93; overweight
* Canadian National Railway : Barclays ups to overweight from equalweight
* Canadian National Railway : Barclays raises price target to $72
* Canadian Pacific Railway : Barclays raises price target to $196 from $168
* Carrizo Oil & Gas : SunTrust Robinson raises price target to $80 from $66; buy
* Casella Waste Systems Inc : Wedbush cuts target to $6.00 from $6.50; outperform
* Celgene : Nomura adjusts target price to $126 from $252 to reflect stock split
* Charles Schwab Corp : UBS cuts target price to $32 from $33
* Charter Communications : Evercore raises to overweight rating; target to $180
* CME Group : Barclays raises target price to $77 from $75; rating equal weight
* Comcast Corp : Evercore adjusts price target to $62 from $63; rating overweight
* Costar Group Inc : JMP Securities raises to market outperform from market perform
* CSX Corp : Barclays raises price target to $31 from $30
* Ctrip.com : Deutsche Bank raises target price to $74 from $58; rating buy
* D.R. Horton Inc : Barclays raises target price to $34 from $28.; rating overweight
* DaVita : Jefferies starts with a buy rating
* DaVita : Jefferies starts with price target $86
* Delta Air Lines Inc : Raymond James raises target price to $46 from $45; outperform
* DreamWorks Animation : Piper Jaffray raises to neutral - Theflyonthewall.com
* E. W. Scripps Co : Noble Financial cuts target price to $25 from $27; rating buy
* Endologix Inc : Credit Suisse starts with outperform rating; target price of $19
* Everest RE GROUP : Barclays raises target price to $176 from $174; rating overweight
* Finish Line : Canaccord Genuity raises target price to $34 from $32; rating buy
* Finish Line : Monness Crespi Hardt raises target price to $35 from $33; rating buy
* Finish Line : UBS raises target price to $30 from $29; rating neutral
* Heartland Express : Barclays raises price target to $21 from $17
* HI Crush Partners LP : Raymond James raises target to $75 from $49; outperform
* Huntington Bancshares : Goldman Sachs raises target price to $10.25 from $10
* ICE : Barclays cuts target price to $212 from $225; rating overweight
* Iron Mountain Inc : JP Morgan resumes with overweight rating
* J B Hunt Transport : Barclays cuts price target to $80 from $82
* J&J : JP Morgan raises price target to $108 from $100; rating neutral
* JDS Uniphase : UBS raises price target to $15 from $14; rating buy
* Joy Global : JP Morgan raises price target to $60 from $58; rating neutral
* Kansas City Southern : Barclays raises price target to $110 from $109
* KB Home : KBW raises target price to $19 from $17; rating market perform
* KB Home : RBC raises target price to $21 from $20; rating outperform
* KB Home : Susquehanna raises target price to $24 from $21; rating positive
* KeyCorp : Goldman Sachs raises target price to $15.50 from $15; rating neutral
* KLA-Tencor : B. Riley raises to buy rating
* Knight Transportation : Barclays raises price target to $23 from $19
* Kona Grill Inc : KeyBanc starts with buy; target price $24
* Kona Grill Inc : Wunderlich starts with buy
* Kona Grill Inc : Janney starts with neutral rating; fair value of $20
* LAM Research Corp : Stifel raises target price to $81 from $69; rating buy
* Lombard Medical Inc : Credit Suisse starts with outperform; target price of $10.50
* Manitowoc Company Inc : Credit Suisse raises target to $39 from $34; outperform
* Marrone Bio Innovations Inc : Baird starts with outperform; target price $15
* MBIA Inc : BTIG Research cuts to neutral from buy
* Meritage Homes : Barclays raises target price to $52 from $49; rating overweight
* Miller Energy Resources : SunTrust Robinson raises to buy from neutral
* Miller Energy Resources : SunTrust Robinson raises price target to $10 from $8
* Molina Healthcare : Leerink raises target price to $45 from $40; market perform
* Montpelier RE Holdings : Barclays raises target price to $29 from $28; underweight
* Myriad Genetics : RBC raises target price to $40 from $31; rating sector perform
* NASDAQ : Barclays cuts target price to $42 from $43; rating overweight
* Norfolk Southern : Barclays raises to overweight from equal weight; target to $112
* Northern Trust Corp : Credit Suisse raises target to $60 from $56; underperform
* Oasis Petroleum : Topeka Capital raises target price to $64 from $56; buy rating
* Oasis Petroleum : Raymond James ups to strong buy from outperform-Streetinsider.com
* Oiltanking Partners LP : RBC raises target price to $96 from $86; sector perform
* P&G : B. Riley cuts target price to $87 from $88; rating neutral
* PartnerRe Ltd : Barclays raises target price to $119 from $117; rating overweight
* Pattern Energy Group : CIBC raises target price to $34 from $31
* Popeyes Louisiana Kitchen Inc : Wedbush raises target to $50 from $48; outperform
* PulteGroup : Barclays raises target price to $22 from $20; rating underweight
* Qunar : Deutsche Bank raises to buy from hold; target price to $31 from $27
* Rayonier : RBC cuts to sector perform from outperform; price target to $37 from $52
* Rayonier : D.A. Davidson cuts to neutral from buy on valuation
* Rayonier Advanced Materials Inc : D.A. Davidson starts with buy rating; $53 target
* Receptos : Nomura starts with buy; price target $63
* Renaissancere Holdings : Barclays raises target to $103 from $98; equal weight
* Ryland Group : Barclays raises target price to $48 from $45; rating equal weight
* Sanchez Energy Corp : KLR Group raises target price by $1 to $39; rating accumulate
* Sandisk Corp : Pacific Crest raises target price to $123 from $97; outperform
* SFX Entertainment Inc : Albert Fried & Company starts with overweight; $11 target
* Snap-On Inc : Baird raises target price to $154 from $130; rating outperform
* Spirit Airlines Inc : Raymond James raises target to $70 from $68; outperform
* SunTrust Banks : Goldman Sachs raises target price to $47 from $45; rating buy
* Swift Transportation : Barclays raises price target to $30 from $28
* Taminco Corp : Jefferies raises price target to $27 from $24; rating buy
* Tilly's Inc : B Riley cuts to neutral from buy
* Time Warner Cable Inc : Evercore adjusts price target to $178; rating overweight
* TimkenSteel : Jefferies starts with buy; price target $46.50
* Toll Brothers : Barclays raises target price to $45 from $41; rating equal weight
* Trinity Industries : Stifel raises target price to $46 from $45; rating buy
* Ultratech Inc : Noble Financial raises to buy
* Union Pacific Corp : Barclays cuts price target to $115 from $210
* Unitil Corp : Brean cuts to hold from buy rating
* UPS : Barclays raises price target to $112 from $105
* Varian Medical Systems Inc : ISI Group starts with neutral; target price $90
* Werner Enterprises : Barclays raises price target to $27 from $26
* Yahoo : Piper Jaffray raises to overweight from neutral
* Yahoo : Piper Jaffray raises target price to $43 from $37
