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Börsipäev 24. veebruar

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  • Head vabariigi aastapäeva!

    Nädal algas eile suhteliselt vaikse liikumisega. Ühest küljest oodati Kreeka reformikava esitamist, mis tõi juba mustandi kujul kaasa rahandusministrite julgustavaid kommentaare. Teisalt muutis ettevaatlikuks Janet Yelleni tänane kõne, mis viis S&P 500 indeksit kerges miinuses külgsuunas edasi.

    Makrouudistest valmistas Saksamaa ettevõtete kindlustunde indeks kerge pettumuse, kuid jooksva hinnangu ja ootuste ühine indeks jätkas siiski ülespoole liikumist 0,1 punkti võrra 106,8 punkti peale.

    Ühendriikide uudised kipuvad jätkuvalt üllatama negatiivselt. Olemasolevate majade müük alanes jaanuaris -4,9% võrreldes detsembriga (oodati -1,8%) annualiseeritult 4,82 miljoni peale, mis oli madalaim alates 2014.a aprillist. Kuna müük langes kõigis neljas piirkonnas, ei näi see analüütikute sõnul olevat tingitud ilmast. Üheks mõjuteguriks on jätkuvalt madalad varud, mis vähendavad ostja jaoks valikut ning tõstsid medaanhinda aastaga 6,2%. Dallase töötleva tööstuse aktiivsusindeks alanes veebruaris -4,4 punktilt -11,2 punkti peale (madalaim alates 2013.a aprillist), kuid arvestades tugevat seotust energiasektoriga, siis tõenöoliselt suurt üllatust langus ei valmistanud.

    Tänase börsipäeva tähtsaimaks sündmuseks saab olema Janet Yelleni esinemine Senati ees, kus ta annab poolaasta rahapoliitilise ülevaate. Makromajanduse tasandil on raskuskese kallutatud ka pigem Ühendriikide poole, kus selgub veebruarikuu tarbijate kindlustunde indeks, teenindussektori PMI ja Case-Shilleri majade detsembri hinnaindeks.

    09.00 Saksamaa neljanda kvartali SKP detailid
    09.00 Soome töötuse määr (jaanuar)
    09.45 Prantsusmaa töötleva tööstuse ettevõtete kindlustunde indeks (veebruar)
    12.00 Eurotsooni inflatsioon (jaanuari lõplik näit)
    16.00 USA S&P/Case-Shilleri majade hinnaindeks (detsember)
    16.45 USA Markiti koostatud teenindussektori PMI (veebruar)
    17.00 USA tarbijate kindlustunde indeks (veebruar)
    17.00 USA Richmond FEDi töötleva tööstuse küsitlus (veebruar)
    17.00 USA Föderaalreservi esimees Janet Yellen annab tunnistust Senati ees
  • Eile pühade tõttu suletud olnud Kreeka aktsiaturg kaupleb 7% kõrgemal pankade eestvedamisel (+13%)

  • Hommikune makro oli üsna ootuspärane:

    GERMANY Q4 FINAL GDP Q/Q: 0.7% V 0.7%E; YOY: 1.6% V 1.6%E; GDP WDA Y/Y: 1.4% V 1.4%E
  • Eurotsooni jaanuarikuu inflatsiooni lõplik näit ei muutunud võrreldes esialgse statistikaga

    Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index (YoY) (JAN F); Actual -0.6%, Expected -0.6%, Prior -0.6%
    Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index - Core (YoY) (JAN F); Actual 0.6%, Expected 0.6%, Prior 0.6%

  • Gapping up
    In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: CHGG +15.6%, (also announces an agreement in principle to establish a multi-year renewable agreement with Ingram Content Group for Ingram to be responsible for purchasing all textbook inventory which Chegg will continue to market under its brand), SPWR +12.1% (also, First Solar and SunPower plan to partner to form joint YieldCo vehicle), FIVN +8.7%, PN +5.7%, PN +5.7%, RLGY +5.1%, NLS +5%, TOL +4.4%, CBRL +4.3%, CEQP +4.2%, BHP +4.1%, CBLI +3.9%, SF +3.7%, (Stifel Financial announces the acquisition of Sterne Agee), AGU +3.7%, HD +3.3%, DEPO +2.9%, ATRI +2.7%, CLDX +2.7%, ONDK +2%, GTLS +2%, DYAX +1.8%, WPC +1.8%, ESRX +1.4%, DDS +1.4%, EXAS +1.3%, KAMN +1.2%, GLDD +1.1%, BEE +1%, TXRH +0.9%, TRXC +0.8%

    M&A news: SF +3.7% (announced the acquisition of Sterne Agee for ~$150 mln; expected to be accretive to shareholder value when fully integrated; co also reported earnings), ALLT +1.2% (to acquire operations of Optenet), HBAN +0.9% (to purchase Macquarie Equipment Finance)

    Other news: OCLR +12.3% ( Soros Fund Management discloses 9.95% passive stake in 13G filing), CAPN +11.5% ( positive blog mention), APRI +10.6% ( Sarissa Capital discloses 17.64% active stake in 13D filing), FSLR +10.5% (First Solar and SunPower plan to partner to form joint YieldCo vehicle), BIOC +8.2% (cont strength), CYTX +6.5% (European Medicines Agency's Committee for Orphan Medicinal Products issued a positive opinion toward Cytori's application for an orphan drug designation for the new Scleroderma therapeutic ECCS-50), CBAY +6.2% (positive preliminary topline results from its Phase 2b clinical study of its lead product candidate, arhalofenate), IBIO +6.1% (still checking), ASML +3.6% (may be attributed to AIXG results), MEA +3.2% (has retained Gordian Group to assist with an overall review of its business strategies going forward), NBG +2.6% (EU accepts Greece initial proposal), JPM +2.6% (presents at Investor Day), CVEO +2.4% (wins ~$32 mln in new village contracts), EXAS +1.9% (Wisconsin Economic Development Corporation will provide tax credits of up to $9 million to EXAS as part of the cancer diagnostics company's ongoing growth in the state), LOW +1.7% (in symp with HD), PSTI +1.7% (still checking), SUNE +1.7% (provides 2015 MW outlook), INOV +1.6% (announces a multi-year expansion of its relationship with Walgreens)

    Analyst comments: ONCE +3.2% (initiated with a Overweight at JP Morgan), COH +2% (upgraded to Outperform from Perform at Oppenheimer), JCP +1.5% (reiterated as a Top Pick for 2015 at Piper Jaffray), FEYE +0.9% (target raised at FBR)

    Gapping down
    In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: ROSE -15.6%, LIQD -5.2%, PDLI -4.8%, DK -4.5%, AXTI -4.1%, WOR -4.1%, (announces the Co's outlook has changed since it was discussed in December's fiscal year 2015 second quarter earnings call; expects weaker third quarter results), WIN -3.8%, DAKT -3.6%, CYRN -3.3%, TRAK -3.1%, THC -3.1%, CLDT -3.1%, IPXL -3%, PLL -2.8%, ODP -2.4%, RCAP -2%, TREX -1.7%, ALKS -1.6%, FELE -1.5%, OKE -1.4%, AMT -1.4%, M -1.4%, ADC -1.1%, GPX -1.1%, DPZ -1%, PF -0.7%

    Select gaming related names showing weakness after reports officials are looking into restricting Chinese tourists into Macau to ease overcrowding: LVS -2.9%, WYNN -2.7%, MPEL -2.3%, MGM -1.6%

    Other news: ALKS -25.3% (announces topline results from a phase 1 clinical study of ALKS 7106 for the treatment of pain, also released earnings), RGSE -18.5% (announced $3.5 mln public offering of common stock and warrants to purchase common stock), TEP -5.3% ( announces the commencement of an underwritten public offering of 10 mln common units representing limited partner interests), BOOT -4.1% (announced the release of lock-up restriction, taking effect Feb. 25, 2015), AXTI -4.1% (co's Audit Committee has conducted an investigation of certain potential related-party transactions involving Davis Zhang, the Company's President, China Operations), XNCR -4% ( intends to offer and sell, subject to market and other conditions, up to 5.5 mln shares of its common stock), NNN -3.2% (filed a mixed securities shelf offering), HCN -2.9% (announces anticipated first quarter 2015 investment pipeline of ~$2.2 bln), LXRX -2.7% (announced the resignation of Brian P. Zambrowicz, Ph.D., EVP and Chief Scientific Officer), ACI -2.3% (cont weakness), TSEM -2% (modest pull back following yday's earnings strength), DAL -1% (AAL and DAL not interested in Skymark agreement, spokesman says)

    Analyst comments: S -3.6% (downgraded to Sell from Neutral at BTIG Research), VOD -2.9% (downgraded to Underperform at BofA/Merrill), BPT -1.8% (initiated with a Underweight at JP Morgan; tgt $40), HII -1.7% (downgraded to Underperform from Neutral at Credit Suisse), STJ -1.7% (downgraded to Underperform from Neutral at Credit Suisse), AAL -1.5% (downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Cowen), LSTR -1.1% (downgraded to Hold from Buy at Deutsche Bank), Z -1.1% (downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Macquarie), NEM -1% (downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at HSBC Securities), SHAK -0.8% (initiated with a Neutral at JP Morgan; initiated with a Neutral at Goldman, tgt $36)

    Allikas: Briefing.com
  • USA 20 linna majade hinnaindeksi kasvutempo kogus detsembris veidi hoogu

    USD S&P/Case-Shiller Composite-20 (YoY): 4.46% actual vs 4.30%estimate, prior revised down to 4.29%

  • USA teenindussektor koges veebruaris aktiivsuse kasvu kiirenemist, kui PMI kerkis 54,2 punkti pealt 57,0 punktile (oodati 54,5)

  • Järgmisel paaril istungil ei plaani FOMC intressimäära tõsta, mis asetab esimese tõstmise kõige varem juunisse. Aga nagu alati, sõltub kõik jooksvast makrost

    The FOMC's assessment that it can be patient in beginning to normalize policy means that the Committee considers it unlikely that economic conditions will warrant an increase in the target range for the federal funds rate for at least the next couple of FOMC meetings. If economic conditions continue to improve, as the Committee anticipates, the Committee will at some point begin considering an increase in the target range for the federal funds rate on a meeting-by-meeting basis. Before then, the Committee will change its forward guidance.
  • USA tarbiate kindlustunde indeks tegi veebruaris vähikäigu

    USD Consumer Confidence (FEB): 96.4 actual vs 99.5 estimate, prior revised up to 103.8.
  • Hewlett-Packard prelim $0.92 vs $0.91 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; revs $26.8 bln vs $27.35 bln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate

    HPQ - 3,35%, @37,2

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