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Börsipäev 13. juuni

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  • Esimest korda üle mitme nädala olid reedel ostjad USA aktsiaturul hädas enda kehtestamisega, ega suutnud indekseid avanemisjärgsest kaotusest välja vedada. Lühiajaliselt üleostetud sentiment, kasvav Brexiti hirm, nafta -3% langus ning sellel nädalal toimuv FOMC istung tirisid S&P 500 indeksi -0,9% madalamale, kui nädala lõikes tähendas see vaid -0,2% kaotust. Euroopas lõpetas Stoxx 600 reedel -2,4% punases, mis kujunes ühtlasi ka kogu nädala muutuseks.

    Aasias alustasid aktsiaturud uut nädalat punastes värvides, kui suurimaid kaotusi kandis Jaapan, kus Nikkei kauples kirjutamise hetkel -3,2% madalamal, reageerides jeeni järsule tugevnemisele USA dollari suhtes (-1,0% @ 105,9).

    Lohutust ei pakkunud öösel avaldatud Hiina maikuu majandusnäitajad, mille kohaselt jäi tööstustoodangu aastane kasv püsima 6,0% peale (oodati 6,0%) ning jaemüügi kasv aeglustus 0,1pp võrra 10,0%le (oodati 10,1%). Mõnevõrra üllatav oli aga investeeringute esimese viie kuu kasvu aeglustumine 9,6%le, jäädes alla jaanuar-aprill perioodil registreeritud ja ka analüütikute prognoositud 10,5%le. Detailsemas vaates on näha, et erasektori aeglustuvate investeeringute (3,9% YoY) tõttu sõltutakse järjest rohkem valitsuse investeeringutest, mis kasvasid mais 23,3% võrreldes mullu sama ajaga.

    Kui võtta vaatluse alla teisedki Hiina maikuu aktiivsusnäitajad, siis Bloombergi mudeli kohaselt kasvas riigi majandus eelmisel kuul 6,93% võrreldes mullu sama ajaga, jäädes stabiilseks aprilli 6,88% kasvutempo järel.

    Ülejäänud börsipäev kujuneb täna majandusuudiste osas suhteliselt vaikseks.
    10.00 Jens Weidmanni esinemine
    15.00 Ardo Hanssoni esinemine
  • Deutsche soovitab vaatamata Brexiti riskile omada Euroopas ülekaalu UK aktsiates, Saksamaa ettevõtete puhul nähakse vähest tõusupotentsiaali

    * German stocks have little further upside for relative EPS, Sebastian Raedler, Deutsche Bank head of European equity strategy, writes in note.
    * Has DAX target of 9350, ~5% downside from current levels, given that Germany has outperformed the European market by 19% since 2010 on back of better earnings growth
    * Relative earnings are already at a 20-year high; 90% of Germany’s earnings outperformance over past 6 years explained by its overweight of autos, underweight of energy, but autos’ earnings are already elevated and vulnerable to Chinese FX devaluation, while energy profits have little downside from already depressed levels
    * Overweight U.K. equities relative to Europe, with year-end FTSE 100 target of 6150, ~1% upside from current levels * U.K. market is highly defensive, tends to outperform during periods of GBP weakness; sentiment is muted, with relative analyst recommendations on U.K. ex-resources close to an 8-year low
    * In case of “leave” vote in referendum, U.K. equities would outperform European stocks, given likely GBP depreciation aswell as U.K. market’s defensive sector structure: Deutsche Bank
  • Ka JPMorgan on Suurbritannia ettevõtete suhtes võrdlemisi optimistlik

    * U.K. equities appear underowned given their poor performance over a number of years and are trading “outright cheap” on P/B metric, JPMorgan equity strategists including Emmanuel Cau and Mislav Matejka write in note.
    * Base case: bond yields don’t go anywhere, and could break lower from current trading ranges, which typically supports low beta allocation
    * U.K. is heavily weighted to defensives and has the highest dividend yield out of big regional markets
    * EM will outperform DM this year for the first time in five years
    * YTD, EM equities are outperforming DM by 380bp in USD terms, which is a help for U.K. stocks, an indirect play on EM due to nearly 30% revenue exposure to EM
    * Rollover in USD helps commodity prices, which in turn supports UK stocks
    * Brexit remains clear concern, risk for equities is asymmetric, however GBP is natural hedge for UK stocks, as 72% of FTSE 100 revenues are derived outside the country NOTE
  • Fitchi hinnangul võib müügimaksu edasi lükkamine mõjuda Jaapani krediidireitingule negatiivselt


    Fitch no longer expects the consumption tax to rise in its base case. Fitch's revised fiscal projections are for the ratio of gross general government debt to GDP to continue rising from 245% at end-2016 by 1-2pp per year over the projection period out to 2024, rather than peaking at 247% in 2020 as previously expected.The consumption tax increase was an important element in the government's fiscal consolidation strategy, which aims to bring the primary deficit of the general account of the central and local governments into balance by the fiscal year from April 2020 to March 2021 (FY20), against a 3.3% deficit in FY15. When announcing the delay, the government said it remains committed to its target of primary balance by FY20, although it did not set out any further specific measures to achieve this goal.
  • Olgugi, et Suurbritannia referendumi eel on investorid oma Euroopa positsioone pikalt vähendanud, jätkuks Barclaysi hinnangul "EI" korral ruumi aktsiaturgude edasiseks languseks.

    * Brexit vote will keep risk appetite in check over the next 2 weeks as the outcome is still uncertain, Barclays global equity strategists, including Keith Parker, write in note.
    * Europe positioning is extremely underweight
    * Europe-dedicated equity mutual funds have cut exposure to 1.5 standard deviation below average, suggesting there is fuel for outperformance on a “remain” vote
    * Outflows from Europe equity funds have amounted to 4% of AUM, compared to about 1% for total equities
    * Global equity positioning is near neutral, short interest in S&P 500 stocks, ETFs back near last year’s lows, S&P futures positioning is neutral
    * Positioning backdrop points to a risk of a correction in global equities on a “leave” vote, and a moderate rally on a “remain”
    * VIX has risen recently, but it does not seem to be pointing to broad-based risk aversion
    * Overall, after outflows of $111b YTD, equities should be the main beneficiary of “remain” relief rally, particularly
    Europe, as cash come back to markets, with bond yields already near the lows after big inflows
    * $140b of cash on the sidelines should go to equities on a “remain” vote if the Fed is “patient”
    * If “leave’ wins, equity positioning will get cut further and redemptions accelerate, leading to market correction
  • Microsoft teeb 26 mld USD ülevõtu

    LinkedIn to be acquired my Microsoft (MSFT) for $196/share
  • Gapping up
    In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: SNSS +19.4%, SAIC +6.4%, STLD +3.1%, HNI +1.1%
    M&A news: PWE +69.6% (confirmed $1.1 bln in asset sales, including sale of Saskatchewan assets for $975 mln), LNKD +47.2% (to be acquired my Microsoft (MSFT) for $196/share ), SYMC +4.2% (will acquire Blue Coat for ~$4.651 bln in cash), RDY +0.9% (to acquire Teva's (TEVA) portfolio of 8 ANDAs for $350 mln)
    Select metals/mining stocks trading higher: MUX +6.8%, HMY +3.6%, AUY +3.2%, ABX +2.5%, GG +2.2%, NEM +2.1%, SLW +1.8%, GDX +1.8%, AU +1.6%
    Other news: EBIO +79.1% (to grant an exclusive license to Roche (RHHBY) to develop/commercialize EBI-031; receives an upfront payment of $7.5 mln, along with potential milestone payments of up to $262.5 mln), SNSS +19.5% (presents updated results from an ongoing Phase 1b/2 trial of vosaroxin in combination with decitabine in older patients with previously untreated acute myeloid leukemia and high-risk myelodysplastic), AGIO +9.2% (presents data for Phase 2 DRIVE-PK study of AG-348 demonstrating rapid and sustained hemoglobin increases), SWHC +7.9% (speculation of tighter gun control laws; suggests ramp in near-term sales), MNKD +5.9% (presents Late-Breaking data Afrezza confirming faster onset and shorter duration of action compared to mealtime insulins), SUNW +5.5% (updated corporate presentation reaffirms FY16 target of $100 mln in revs vs the $103 mln single analyst estimate), TTNP +4.7% (receives $15 mln milestone payment from development and commercialization partner Braeburn Pharmaceuticals following FDA approval of Probuphine), RGR +4.3% (speculation of tighter gun control laws; suggests ramp in near-term sales), AMRN +4.2% (reports data for Vascepa that indicated reductions in potentially atherogenic lipid parameters), GALE +3.4% (presents combined safety data from its GALE-401 clinical trials), VRX +2.7% (CEO disclosed purchase of 202K shares worth ~$4.9 mln; Pershing Square affirms unchanged 9.0% active stake, updating on recent transactions), VICL +2.4% (insider purchase by CEO)
    Analyst comments: ON +1.5% (upgraded to Overweight at Pacific Crest), ENDP +1.2% (upgraded to Neutral at Mizuho)

    Gapping down
    In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: SYUT -6.2%
    Select financial related names showing weakness:LYG -2.6%, DB -2.1%, CS -1.9%, BCS -1.7%, SAN -1.6%, HSBC -1%, BAC -0.8%
    Other news: MRNS -57.9% (announces ganaxolone did not meet the primary endpoint of demonstrating a statistically significant difference from placebo), BIOS -12% (commences common stock offering), SPHS -8.6% (modestly pulling back after Friday's gains), GWPH -2% (still checking), DANG -1.8% (Shanghai -3.5% overnight), BABA -1.1% (Shanghai -3.5% overnight), TRN -0.5% (enters into an Administrative Settlement and Compliance Agreement with the Federal Highway Administration pertaining to highway products)
    Analyst comments: EMES -7.7% (downgraded to Underperform at DA Davidson), OSUR -4.2% (downgraded to Mkt Perform from Outperform at Raymond James), VOD -2.1% (downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Macquarie), SAP -1.8% (downgraded to Underperform from Hold at Jefferies), BIDU -1.7% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Citigroup)
  • Erko Rebane
    Microsoft teeb 26 mld USD ülevõtu

    LinkedIn to be acquired my Microsoft (MSFT) for $196/share

    Jap, kõlab nende moodi küll: Buying up dead tech Companies since 1976
  • eurotsooni inflatsioonootused kukkusid uude madalpunkti

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