Börsipäev 6. september - Investeerimine - Foorum - LHV finantsportaal

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Börsipäev 6. september

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  • Ühendriikides olid eile väärtpaberiturud töörahva püha tõttu suletud ning üsna vaikseks osutus päev ka Euroopas, kus Stoxx 600 lõpetas 0,1% plusspoolel. Madalam likviidsus võis osaliselt kaasa aidata toornafta päevasisesele ligi 5% rallile tänu spekulatsioonile, et Saudi Araabia ja Venemaa võivad külmutada tootmismahtude kasvu, kuid sõlmitud kokkulepe piirdus esialgu vaid töögrupi loomisega, mis hakkab hakkab erinevaid turu stabiliseerimise võimalusi uurima. WTI ja Brent lõpetasid 3% plussis vastavalt 44,4 ja 46,8 dollaril.

    Euroala töötleva tööstuse ja teenindussektori augustikuu lõplik aktiivsusindeks korrigeeriti peamiselt Saksamaa nõrgema majanduskliima tõttu 53,3 punkti pealt 52,9 punktile, mis jättis indeksi kesisemaks juulis registreeritud 53,2 punktist. Siiani on erasektori PMI keskmiseks väärtuseks kolmandas kvartalis 53,1 punkti, ühtides teise kvartali omaga, mil majandus näitas 0,3% kvartaalset kasvu, kuid aktiivsuse kasvu aeglustumine augustis ja uute tellimuste nõrgem pealevool viitavad pigem hoo raugemisele.

    Euroala SKP kvartaalne muutus (valge) ning töötleva tööstuse ja teenindussektori PMI (kollane)

    Positiivsest küljest aga osutus euroala juulikuu jaemüük oodatust palju tugevamaks, põrgates pärast juuni -0,1% kuist langust 1,1%, mis tähendas aastatagusega võrreldes 2,9% kasvu. Ehkki tegemist on tarbimise seisukohast julgustava märgiga, kipub jaemüük siiski olema kuu baasil üsna volatiilne näitaja ning mõnevõrra ettevaatlikuks muudab kasvu jätkusuutlikkuse osas seik, et tarbijate kindlustunde indeks on viimased kolm kuud allapoole liikunud, jõudes augustis madalaimale tasemele alates aprillist.

    Täna saab majandusuudistes peamise tähelepanu all olema USA teenindussektori aktiivsusindeks, mis moodustab suurema osa majandusest ning on seetõttu kaalukama tähendusega, kui läinud nädalal ootamatult nõrgaks osutunud töötleva tööstuse ISM indeks. Euroopas jälgitakse Saksamaa tehaste juulikuu tellimusi.

    09.00 Saksamaa tehaste tellimused (juuli)
    09.00 Soome teise kvartali SKP
    12.00 Eurotsooni teise kvartali lõplik SKP
    17.00 USA tööturu tingimuste indeks (august)
    17.00 USA teenindussektori ISM (august)
  • Morgan Stanley kergitab S&P 500 hinnasihi baasstsenaariumis 2200 pealt 2300-le, jättes EPSi ootuse samaks, kuid tõstes P/E kordajat 17,7-le neljal peamisel põhjusel:

    1) Bond yields are so low and seem risky – the old "relative to other asset classes" argument.
    2) 70% of the global equities that trade $100 million or more each day are in the US – the old liquidity argument.
    3) The US is the only major region with potentially positive EPS growth as a base case – the old fundamental argument.
    4) Investors aren’t positioned for big upside- whether you look at futures, options, prime brokerage data, surveys, or anecdotally from meetings, we don’t see excessive optimism among the client base – i.e., the old positioning argument.

  • Saksamaa tehaste tellimused kasvasid juulis 0,2% võrreldes juuniga (oodati 0,5%), kahanedes mulluse baasil -0,7% (oodati -0,2%). Seejuures osutus nõrgemaks just kodumaine nõudlus, tellimused eurotsoonist ja mujalt kasvasid MoM 2,5% ja YoY 2,2%.

    German EconMinistry: Industrial Orders Have Seen Lacklustre Development So Far In 2016 - RTRS
    German EconMinistry: Data Suggests ‘Rather Low’ Industrial Activity This Autumn - RTRS

  • Soome majanduse aastane kasvutempo aeglustus teises kvartalis 0,4%le esimese kvartali 1,2%lt (korrigeeriti 1,6% pealt madalamaks)
  • Stoxx 600 ettevõtete kasumid tõotavad sel aasta kahaneda kuuendat aastat järjest ja kuigi ootused tulevaks aastaks on kõrged, siis vaikselt on hakatud neidki kärpima (joonis Morgan Stanleylt)

    * Lack of profit growth for Stoxx 600 companies for the sixth year running looks very problematic, Natixis strategists Sylvain Goyon and Stephen Ausseur write in note.
    * Downward revisions are continuing: Stoxx 600 profits forecast to fall 1.4% for this year vs a rise of 7.5% expected back in January
    * Financials, banks in particular, and oils alone represent 97% (respectively 67% and 30%) of the earnings “deficit”
    compared with the same period last year
    * Only two sectors offer positive earnings growth: consumer goods (+13%), health care (+5.1%), but they represent a marginal contribution to overall earnings
    * For 2017, expected growth for the Stoxx 600 is still largely positive, at +12.9%, but erosion has already set in: -0.8% last month
    * Lack of profit growth mostly due to steadily declining global economic growth potential, under dual impact of aging
    population and drop in productivity gains
    * Increase in interest rates, without a macro acceleration, could only result in a broad slide for markets
    * Natixis remains cautious on euro-area risky assets, stock indexes are already near to their year-end targets, political risk remains high in Europe

  • Gapping up
    In reaction to strong earnings/guidance
    : NSSC +10.5%, MDXG +2%, MEIP +1.1%, ALR +0.9%

    M&A news:
    CPHD +52.1% (to be acquired by Danaher (DHR) for $53.00/share in cash for ~$4 bln enterprise value)
    SE +8.7% (Spectra Energy and Enbridge (ENB) to combine in a stock-for-stock merger transaction which values Spectra Energy common stock at $40.33 per share),
    BHP +1.1% ( Woodside (WOPEY) agrees to acquire half of BHP Billiton's Scarborough area assets)
    MON +0.5% (Bayer (BAYRY) confirms in advanced negotiations with Monsanto concerning proposed transaction)
    Select metals/mining stocks trading higher: AUY +4.4%, AG +3.8%, MT +3%, SLW +2.8%, ABX +2.7%, GG +2.5%, NEM +1.9%, GDX +1.8%

    Select oil/gas related names showing strength
    : CHK +1.5%, EPE +0.9%, WLL +0.9%, RDS.A +0.7%, TOT +0.7%, PBR +0.7%

    Other news:
    NAVB +79.5% (enters into letter of intent with Cardinal Health (CAH) for the Sale of Lymphoseek in North America)
    CLCD +78.8% (announces its Phase 3 pivotal study evaluating lasmiditan, the SAMURAI study, achieved both the primary and key secondary efficacy endpoints)
    DVAX +16.4% (provides regulatory update on HEPLISAV-B; FDA will review the overall immunogenicity data from HBV-23 )
    THLD +9.1% (may be in sympathy with other biotech peers)
    ESI +6.7% (will discontinue academic operations at all of its ITT Technical Institutes permanently due to actions of and sanctions from the U.S. Department of Education)
    SSYS +5.2% (General Electric (GE) said it plans to pay $1.4 bln to acquire 3D printing companies Arcam AB and SLM Solutions Group AG)
    DDD +4.8% (General Electric (GE) said it plans to pay $1.4 bln to acquire 3D printing companies Arcam AB and SLM Solutions Group AG)
    SGMO +4.2% (granted orphan designation by the FDA for its Adeno-associated virus serotype 2/6 vectors encoding zinc finger nucleases and human factor 9 gene for the treatment of hemophilia B)
    VJET +4.1% (General Electric (GE) said it plans to pay $1.4 bln to acquire 3D printing companies Arcam AB and SLM Solutions Group AG), TTM +4.1% (Sensex up 1.5% overnight)
    TEF +2.7% (announces intent to proceed of IPO of its subsidiary of Telxius Telecom)
    IBN +2.4% (Sensex up 1.5% overnight), PNNT +1.9% (announced quarterly distribution of $0.28 per share (unchanged from prior))
    RADA +1.9% (ecieves follow-on orders, for delivery of ground debriefing stations, totaling $2 mln; deliveries are to be completed by mid-2017)
    BABA +1.4% (launches Canadian Pavilion on Tmall Global; Air Canada and Alitrip sign deal)
    HLF +1% (Joint/Group Filing including Carl Icahn disclosed the purchase of nearly 307K shares, worth total of $18.5 mln (transaction date 8/31)), .
    Analyst comments:
    FNSR +4.8% (upgraded to Buy at Stifel)
    HL +3.6% (initiated with a Buy at Rodman & Renshaw; tgt $9)
    GT +2.9% (upgraded to Buy from Hold at Deutsche Bank)
    SAN +1.5% (upgraded to Overweight at Barclays)
    WPZ +1.4% (initiates an adviser-led process to explore the monetization of its indirect ownership interest in the Geismar, Louisiana olefins plant and complex)
    GILD +1.3% (upgraded to Buy at Jefferies)
    FIVE +1.2% (assumed coverage / upgraded to Neutral from Sell at Goldman)
    INTC +1% (upgraded to Buy at Evercore ISI)
    CCI +0.9% (upgraded to Outperform at Oppenheimer)
    Gapping down
    In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance:

    MRVL -3.9%
    Select EU financial related names showing weakness:
    LYG -3%, BCS -1.1%, DB -1.1%
    Other news:
    TNXP -51.8% (reports topline results from phase 3 Affirm study of TNX-102 SL in fibromyalgia, provides corporate update)
    KPTI -8.2% (reports top-line results from its Phase 2b STORM study)
    VIP -6.9% (accepted the resignation of Mikhail Slobodin, CEO of VimpelCom Russia, with immediate effect)
    ARWR -2.1% (files for 7,627,119 share Common Stock offering by the selling security holders)
    SHPG -0.5% (files for debt securities shelf offering)
    Analyst comments:
    CNC -1.2% (downgraded to Mkt Perform at Leerink Partners)
    DG -0.7% (coverage assumed / downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Goldman)

  • USA majandus ei jahtunud augustis mitte ainult töötlevas tööstuses


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