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Börsipäev 5. jaanuar

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  • USA aktsiaturud on jäämas truuks trendile, mis on väldanud presidendivalimistest alates, kui S&P 500 indeks lisas eile oma uue aasta tootlusele täiendavad 0,6%. Euroopas lõpetas Stoxx 600 kolmepäevase võiduseeria, ent seda üsna marginaalse taandumisega (-0,1%).

    FOMC liikmed keskendusid detsembri istungi aruteludes võimaliku fiskaalstiimuli mõjule. Praktiliselt kõik osalejad nentisid, et järgnevate aastate lõdvem fiskaalpoliitika võib muuta nende majandusprognoosid liiga konservatiivseks, kuid sellest hoolimata jäädi truuks senisele seisukohale, et rahapoliitika normaliseerimine jätkub järkjärgult. Protokoll näitas, et istungil, mille raames tõusis FOMC intressimäära tõstmise mediaanootus 2017.a 25 baaspunkti võrra 75 baaspunktile, võtsid ligikaudu pooled liikmed juba arvesse fiskaalstiimuli võimalikku mõju (küll aga pole teada, millises ulatuses), teised aga tõid välja Trumpi poliitika osas püsivat ebamäärasust ning negatiivseid riske, muuhulgas tugevneva dollari näol.

    Ühendriikide automüük oli detsembris tööstuse ajaloo üks suuremaid, kasvades annualiseeritult 18,29 miljonini novembris saavutatud 17,75 miljoni pealt. Kuid seda aitasid J.D.Poweri kohaselt toetada atraktiivsed soodustused, ulatudes auto kohta keskmiselt 3542 dollarini, mis moodustab alghinnast 10% ning märgib kõrgeimait hinnastiimulit alates finantskriisist.

    USA annualiseeritud automüük (mln)

    Majandusuudiste keskmes saavad täna olema Suurbritannia ja USA teenindussektori detsembrikuu aktiivsusindeksid ning Ühendriikide tööturu detsembri küsitlus, mis võiks anda eelinfot homseks tööturu raportiks.

    11.30 Suurbritannia teenindussektori PMI (detsember)
    12.00 Eurotsooni tootjahinnaindeks (november)
    13.00 Brasiilia tööstustoodang (november)
    15.15 USA ADP tööturu küsitlus (detsember)
    15.30 USA esmased töötu abiraha taotlused
    15.30 Kanada tööstustoodang (november)
    17.00 USA teenindussektori ISM (detsember)
    18.00 USA toornafta varude raport (30. detsember)
  • Citi ootab tänu ettevõtete kasumikasvu kiirenemisel tänavu globaalse aktsiaturu 8% tõusu

    * Global EPS growth will triple to 9% this year from 3% in 2016, fueling gains in stocks, Citigroup strategists led by Robert Buckland writes in note.
    * Expects profit acceleration to be driven by better world economy and rising commodity prices
    * Recommends investors overweight Japan and underweight EM, due to strong dollar
    * Holds neutral view on Europe ex-U.K. as political risks counter cheap valuation and improving economic momentum
    * Expected weakness in GBP and strength in commodities means overweight U.K. equities
    * Also neutral on U.S. despite strong momentum given less attractive valuations
    * Among sectors, financial and energy stocks favored over defensive shares
  • USA väikeinvestorid alustavad aastat võrdlemisi optimistliku väljavaatega, kui pullide osakaal kerkis kuue nädala tippu 46,2%le ning karude osakaal alanes 25,2%le.

    Läinud aasta lõpus läbi viidud küsitluses uskus 74%, et S&P 500 sulgub 2017.a kõrgemal (2016.a puhul ootas 65% plusstootlust, seejuures 31% arvates võis see jääda 5-10% vahele)

  • Suurbritannia teenindussektori aktiivsus on jätkamas referendumijärgset taastumist, saavutades PMI indeksi näol kõrgeima taseme alates 2015.a juulist.

    UK Markit /CIPS Services PMI Dec: 56.2 (est 54.7; prev 55.2)

  • ADP järgi loodi USA erasektoris detsembris 153 tuhat töökohta, veidi vähem kui oodatud 175 tuhat. Alloleval joonisel on toodud valgete tulpadega ADP number, oranžiga aga NFP muutus.
  • Bitcoini turul lastakse täna õhku välja

  • USA töötu abiraha taotlused tagasi mitmekümne aasta põhjades aga jõulude ja aastavahetuse tõttu on volatiilsus siis tavaliselt suurem

    U.S. JOBLESS CLAIMS FALL 28,000 TO 235,000; EST. 260,000
  • Gapping up
    In reaction to strong earnings/guidance:

    UNXL +6.7%, BKS +5.7%, ALXN +5.6%, (files previously delayed Form 10-Q; Audit / Finance Committee concluded that the previously issued financial results do not require restatement)
    PLCE +1.9%, AR +0.7%, (capital budget for 2017 is $1.5 billion, including $1.3 billion for drilling and completion and $200 million for core leasehold additions and extensions; Net production is expected to average 2,160 to 2,250 MMcfe/d in 2017, representing year-over-year growth of 20% to 25% relative to 2016 guidance),
    M&A news:
    CEB +21.2% (to be acquired by Gartner (IT) for $2.6 billion in cash and stock)
    Select oil/gas related names showing strength:
    AUY +3.6%, AG +3.1%, GDX +2.1%, ABX +2.1%, GG +2%, NEM +1.8%, GLD +1.1%
    Other news:
    PIRS +28.6% (Pieris Pharmaceuticals and Servier to jointly pursue several bispecific therapeutic programs including its' proprietary dual checkpoint inhibitor PRS-332; co to receive $31.3 mln upfront, up to $539 mln in success-based payments )
    CTIC +24.7% (FDA removes full clinical hold for Pacritinib )
    KOOL +17.2% (eceives FDA approval for significant revisions to its pivotal study for treatment of Critical Limb Ischemia )
    HALO +15.5% (announces phase 2 study in advanced pancreas cancer meets key endpoints in topline results from the combined analysis of Stages 1 and 2 and Stage 2 alone of its HALO 202 study)
    GNCA +13.7% (announces 'positive' clinical results from a planned interim analysis of its ongoing placebo-controlled Phase 2b trial evaluating GEN-003 )
    SHLD +10.8% (after closing near highs of the day +7%),
    SYN +10% (announces 'positive' topline data from its Phase 2b clinical trial for SYN-004; met its primary endpoint of significantly reducing C. difficile Infection)
    ARNA +6% (Arena Pharm sells all of its rights to develop and market lorcaserin to Eisai for a reduced amount than previously announced; enters into equity distribution agreement to sell & issue $50 mln in shares of common stock with Citigroup Global Markets)
    RT +3.7% (continued strength)
    GALE +3.4% (provided a corporate and clinical outlook for 2017 and announced that Mark W. Schwartz President and CEO will give a company presentation at the Biotech Showcase 2017),
    Analyst comments:
    EVOK +12.3% (upgraded to Buy at Rodman & Renshaw; tgt raised to $6)
    SGYP +2.1% (initiated with a Outperform at Oppenheimer)

    Gapping down
    In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance:

    KSS -14.6%, (lowers FY17 guidance to $3.60-3.65 from $3.80-4.00 vs $3.93 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; Nov-Dec comps -2.1%), RECN -13.2%
    M -11.2%, (Macy's lowers FY17 EPS; comparable sales on an owned plus licensed basis declined by 2.1 percent in the months of November and December 2016; announces actions to streamline store portfolio, intensify cost efficiency efforts and execute real estate strategy)
    MG -8.8%, LB -5.5%, MC -5.4%, (Moelis sees Q4 revs above consensus; raises dividend to $0.37/share from $0.32/share; commenced public offering of 5,000,000 shares of Class A common stock)
    CATO -5.4%, AEO -4.8%, RPM -1.5%,
    Select retail related names showing weakness following Macy's and Kohl's comps:
    JWN -7.5%, JCP -5.4%, FOSL -4.6%, DDS -3.9%
    Other news:
    AEZS -32.7% (reports the confirmatory Phase 3 clinical trial of Macrilen (macimorelin) failed to achieve its objective of validating a single oral dose of macimorelin for the evaluation of growth hormone deficiency in adults )
    HRTX -9.7% (announces 'positive' topline results from its Phase 2 study of HTX-011 in subjects undergoing abdominoplasty; 'demonstrated statistically significant reductions in both pain intensity and the use of opioid rescue medications through 96 hours following surgery'
    KNOP -8.5% (commences 2.5 mln common units offering)
    OREX -8.5% (after 64% move higher on Wednesday)
    HLX -5.1% (Helix Energy commences public offering of 21 mln shares of common stock; discloses impairment charge and delayed in-service for Siem Helix 1 update), BKE -3.4% (reports December comps of -15.5% vs -5.4% year ago and -16.2% last month
    KRC -1.5% (commences 3.5 mln common stock offering)
    HPP -1.3% (announced offering of 18,673,808 shares of common stock pursuant to an effective shelf registration statement )
    LOXO -1.2% (prices 3.87 mln common stock offering at $31.00/share)
    Analyst comments:
    UAL -1.9% (downgraded to Equal-Weight from Overweight at Morgan Stanley)


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