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Are Philadelphia 76ers Legitimate Contenders Or Paper Tigers?

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One-quarter of the way through the 2019-20 NBA season, the Philadelphia 76ers are among the most difficult teams to figure out.

On Monday, they opened a 26-point lead against a Utah Jazz squad that entered the season with dark-horse Finals potential before holding on for a 103-94 win. Three nights later, they coughed up the ball 21 times in an unfocused 119-113 loss to a Washington Wizards squad heading straight for the draft lottery.

At 15-7, the Sixers are only 1.5 games behind the Boston Celtics for the No. 2 seed in the Eastern Conference. Heading into Saturday's action, they lead the NBA in rebounding percentage and have the league's fifth-best defense, but their 11th-ranked net rating hardly screams championship contender.

Are the Jekyll-and-Hyde Sixers a legitimate threat to topple the Milwaukee Bucks, Los Angeles Lakers and Los Angeles Clippers in the playoffs, or are they headed for their third straight second-round exit? Let's weigh both sides of the argument.


The contender argument

The Sixers are difficult to figure out in part because the full-strength version of this squad has rarely been on display in their first 22 games.

Ben Simmons, Josh Richardson, Tobias Harris, Al Horford and Joel Embiid have played only nine games together, as Embiid missed time early in the year with an ankle injury and a suspension, while Richardson has been sidelined as of late because of a hamstring injury. Throw in some routine load management for Horford and Simmons' early-season shoulder injury, and the Sixers have already trotted out seven different starting units.

But in the 102 minutes in which Simmons, Richardson, Harris, Horford and Embiid have played together, the Sixers have a plus-21.3 net rating. That's nearly double the Milwaukee Bucks' league-leading mark of 12.9.

The small-sample-size caveat applies here, as the Sixers' starting five likely won't continue to blast opponents by 20-plus points per 100 possessions. But among the 77 five-man units that have played at least 50 minutes together this season, the Simmons-Richardson-Harris-Horford-Embiid lineup ranks third in terms of net rating at the moment.

When rotations tighten in the playoffs and the starters get even more minutes, the Sixers' top-end talent should give them an advantage over most of their foes. Their mammoth length and size on defense will also help, even if their grind-it-out offensive style is far more conducive to nail-biter victories than 30-point blowouts.

Outside of James Ennis, who is shooting a career-best 50.5 percent overall and 42.6 percent from three-point range, the Sixers haven't gotten much consistent production out of their bench. With that said, rookie wing Matisse Thybulle has made significant strides on both ends of the floor over his first 21 games, and Furkan Korkmaz was the team's biggest early-season surprise before he began to cool off as of late..

If Mike Scott snaps out of his ongoing slump—he's only 5-of-27 from deep over the past eight games—the Sixers could have more reliable depth than they've had in recent years. Combine that with their dynamic starting five, and that seems like the recipe for a championship contender.


The pretender argument

Although the best version of this year's Sixers resembles a championship contender—see: their 27-point thrashing of the Miami Heat that wasn't as close as the final score suggests—a few recurring issues could cause them to fall far short of that goal.

As has been tradition under head coach Brett Brown, the Sixers are among the league leaders in turnovers. Their 16.7 giveaways rank 28th leaguewide, ahead of only the Atlanta Hawks (17.7) and Miami (18.0).

After the Sixers coughed the ball up 20 times in a 114-106 victory over the Charlotte Hornets on Nov. 10, Brown bluntly addressed the team's ongoing turnover issues.

"This is what I tell the team: Until we can fix this, this is a house built on sand," he said. "It is fool’s gold. And we have to find a discipline and a better way to control that. Because the turnovers in the first half, some of them were live-ball, a lot of them were just getting things batted out of our hands. We can’t fool ourselves—this is a problem. This is a problem. And we need to own it."

The Sixers averaged 18.turnovers over their first nine games, but they've been better in recent weeks. Prior to Thursday's loss to the Wizards, during which they had 21 giveaways, they averaged only 14.8 turnovers over their previous 12 games. That put them right around the league average during that span.

Late-game offensive execution is another possible Achilles' heel for this Sixers team. Jimmy Butler's departure in free agency deprived them of a go-to closer during crunch time, and they're still sorting out their best options in such scenarios.

The Sixers are 9-6 in games that got within a five-point margin with five or fewer minutes remaining, and they have a plus-13.0 net rating during those 52 minutes, which is the eighth-best mark leaguewide. However, their offensive rating in crunch time is only 105.1, which would be the league's ninth-worst mark across the entire season.

Richardson's recent absence has deprived the Sixers of a late-game shot-creator, which puts additional pressure on Embiid, Harris and Simmons in particular. Sloppy turnovers plagued Embiid in recent losses to the Wizards and Toronto Raptors, while Simmons' reluctance to attempt jump shots limits his effectiveness in half-court settings.

The Sixers don't necessarily need the same player to take over in every close game. Targeting advantageous matchups or feeding the hot hand is a perfectly viable strategy. However, they'll need to improve their offensive execution during crunch time to have any chance of embarking upon a deep playoff run.

The Sixers also can't fall into the trap of looking ahead to the postseason, as tantalizing as it may feel at times. The regular season is their opportunity to work out kinks on both ends of the floor, but they've demonstrated a disturbing lack of focus from time to time, particularly against teams that won't sniff the playoff race.

“I think we just came in too relaxed," Simmons said after the loss to Washington on Thursday. “Didn’t take care of the ball. Waited too long down the stretch to try to get the game back.”

Brown agreed, telling reporters: "I thought that it took us about 36 minutes, 38 minutes, to come with an energy that we have been playing with."

The four teams ahead of the Sixers in the Eastern Conference standings—the Milwaukee Bucks, Celtics, Heat and Raptors—have combined to lose only two games against teams currently below .500. Meanwhile, the Sixers are 11-3 in such games.

Once the playoffs roll around, effort and focus theoretically shouldn't be issues for a Sixers team that entered the season with its eyes on an NBA Finals berth. But dropping winnable games against mediocre teams could cost them home-court advantage during some rounds of the playoffs, which may prove decisive in a closely matched series.

Barring a wave of catastrophic injuries, the Sixers are in position to coast into the playoffs, as they already have a 6.5-game lead over the ninth-seeded Detroit Pistons. They need to use their remaining 60 regular-season games to patch up their weaknesses so they're a well-oiled machine by mid-April.

But if they continue to play down to opponents and choke away winnable games, they may hinder their chances of achieving the goals they set out to accomplish heading into the year.


Unless otherwise noted, all stats via NBA.com or Basketball Reference. All salary information via Early Bird Rights.

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