Kas Microsofti aktsia on surnud või ärkab ellu?
Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse
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Pärast mitmeid matakaid aprillis on MSFT aktsiahind jõudnud 1998 a. detsembri tasemele 68 USD. Kas MSFT jätkab kukkumist või tõuseb fööniksina tuhast?
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MSFT tõuseb kindlasti, iseasi missuguselt tasemelt.
Kui USA turg on põhjas ära käinud võib oletada, et MSFT on üks sambaid mis teda koomast ellu tõstab.
Kuigi jah hetkel ei saa ju veel mingist koomast rääkida... Pigem on see tõusujärgne korrektsioon, mis on valusamalt riivanud neid kes tippe vallutama tormasid. -
Arvan samuti, et koomast on asi kaugel, mis puudutab MS, siis kas on üldse selge, mis tast edasi saab. Igaks juhuks tasuks minu arvates vaadata siiski aktsiaid millel vähekene selgem tulevikuväljavaade. "selgem" ei ole muidugi tingimata sama mis "parem". vaielge...
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Pikemas perspektiivis on MS väljavaated tõesti segased:
- firma võimalik tükeldamine,
- Windowsile tõsiste alternatiivide tekkimine (Linux PC-del),
- PC-dele alternatiivi tekkimine (pihuarvutid ja kommunikaatorid),
- MS Office-le reaalsete alternatiivide ilmumine (StarOffice, webipõhised office paketid)
MS oli 700 naelane Gorilla veel aasta tagasi, mida praeguse seisu järgi enam öelda ei saa. Ootame ja vaatame kuidas turud ümber jagatakse. -
Arvestades, et MS kaebab ükskõik mis otsuse edasi, peaks paar aastat veel rahulik olema, tea kas reaalseid muutusi enne seda firma struktuuris tehakse. Ehk siis mille peale turg reageeris päeva pealt? Föderaalkohtuniku seisukohavõtt on ainult seisukohavõtt. Firmat muutvaid samme ei võeta niipea ette.
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Ameerikas on võimalik taolised asjad (trustidevastase seaduse rikkumine) viia kohe ülemkohtusse ja anda asjadele n.ö. kiirkäik.
Aga aasta paar läheb kindlasti. -
Microsoft ja kohus tunduvad hästi kokku sobivat. Üks kohtuasi hakkab soodsas suunas vaibuma, aga kohe on ähvardamas teine - WSJ kirjutab täna, et MSFT on kutsutud järjekordselt vaibale, seekord alles välja tulemate op süsteemi Windows XP eest.
Asjast lähemalt -
Salomoni konspekt Pisipehme analüütikute koosolekul kuuldust:
HIGHLIGHTS OF THE MEETING
RICK BELLUZZO
President and COO Rick Belluzzo kicked off the day with a summary of Microsoft'
FY02 operating priorities---they included 1) accelerating revenue growth
through new products, services and connected marketing, 2) increasing scrutiny
of proposed venture investments, and 3) cost containment, including a 50% yoy
reduction in hiring during FY02. Belluzzo emphasized that employee attrition
rates declined from 9.6% in FY00 to more normal historic levels of 8.0% in
FY01.
BILL GATES
Chairman and Chief Software Architect Bill Gates continued with an overview of
Microsoft's key product initiatives---they included enhancements/additions to
the company's business productivity suite (more sophisticated business
intelligence applications, more sophisticated document management, a single
canvas for all productivity applications, and speech input); improvements in
product quality and customer support (seamless software updates and patches,
online support, and auto back-up and synchronize functionality); software for
devices that treat handwriting as a data type (tablet PCs which cost roughly
the same amount as a notebook PC, include wireless connectivity and allow pen-
based note taking); software enabling meetings and remote collaboration
(portals for planning and facilitating meetings, remote participation, follow-
up and sharing); tools and platforms enabling the company's vision of XML Web
Services (i.e., the transformation of the Internet from a static presentation
layer to a communications bus for distributed applications); software enabling
voice, video and data communications on a number of different devices;
interactive TV and gaming software (WebTV, Ultimate TV, Set-top box platform,
XBox, interactive TV/advertising, program guides); and software for the
playback, storage and editing and distribution of digital music, photos and
video (the home PC as server in a wireless home network).
JIM ALLCHIN
Group VP of Platforms Jim Allchin continued with a Windows 2000 update.
According to Allchin, Windows 2000 has enjoyed the fastest adoption of any
Windows release by large organizations. Allchin attributes this to high
customer satisfaction ratings, increased reliability/performance/manageability,
significantly lower total cost of ownership and better power management for
laptops.
In characterizing the opportunity for Windows 2000, Allchin cited an aging
installed base (140M+ units more than 3 years old), the 180M systems sold
during the last 18 months capable of running Windows XP, growth in multi-PC
households and the 110M systems in the installed base running Windows 95.
Allchin also believes, and we agree, that digital photography, digital music
and wireless capability will drive upgrades in coming quarters.
On the marketing front, Allchin cited a $200M global TV and print campaign
designed to reach 85% of XP's target audience at least five times during the
first four months. Allchin expects Release Candidate 2 to be ready within days
and reiterated his belief that XP will ship as scheduled on October 25.
JEFF RAIKES AND DOUG BURGUM
Jeff Raikes provided an overview of Microsoft's productivity applications
business, which includes Office, SharePoint Portal Server, Visio, FrontPage,
MapPoint, Visio Enterprise Network Tools, Microsoft Data Analyzer, Microsoft
Project and the forthcoming tablet PC.
According to Raikes, key productivity opportunities in this area include
collaborative applications built on SharePoint technologies, Office 97
upgrades, Office upgrades done in conjunction with Windows 2000/XP upgrades and
piracy reduction.
Doug Burgum followed with an overview of Great Plains and bCentral. During July
2001, Great Plains and bCentral were merged into a single Business Solutions
Division whose charter is to design and market integrated, web-based front and
back office solutions for small to mid-sized businesses (i.e., tightly link
Office functionality with robust, auditable back office functionality provided
by Great Plains). Back office functionality will include accounting and
payroll, CRM, supply chain management, etc. Microsoft will market these
solutions to Great Plains' 135,000 existing customers and bCentral's 3.1M
users.
Burgum characterized the Great Plains acquisition as a well managed process
with almost no attrition.
ERIC RUDDER
VP of Technical Strategy Eric Rudder provided an overview of Microsoft's
Enterprise effort and .NET. Rudder pointed out that Microsoft's Enterprise
effort is now twelve years old and boasts an impressive list of mission
critical deployments at Verizon, the Government of the UK, Bank One, Pennzoil,
CSFB, etc. According to Rudder, SQL Server now has the highest Windows database
market share with over 1M servers deployed and a five year CAGR of 42% (versus
Oracle's 14%).
Rudder commented that about one quarter of Microsoft's total employees are now
involved in customer service (7,000 employees) or professional services (4,000)
and the company is increasingly acting as prime contractor for and providing
project management services to Enterprise customers.
Rudder highlighted Microsoft's tmpC and price/tmpC leadership with the Windows
2000 server/SQL platform and highlighted a number of specific applications
where Microsoft is the benchmark leader, including PeopleSoft CRM, PeopleSoft
Financials, PeopleSoft eBill Payment, Onyx, Pivotal eRelationship, JD Edwards
OneWorld and SAP R3 Retail.
Turning to .NET, Rudder contrasted the .NET platform and applications with J2EE
and Open Source alternatives. Rudder emphasized that only .NET will provide a
tightly integrated, complete foundation for building distributed Web Services
including an application server, development tools, application infrastructure,
management/security and knowledge management. Rudder expects the deployment of
.NET services to accelerate with the FY02 release of Windows.NET and
VisualStudio.NET and broad adoption to occur in FY03---we consider these
targets ambitious.
YUSUF MEHDI
Mehdi reviewed MSN's dominant reach (250M unique users per month, #1 reach in
11 countries, #1 in Europe, 110M active Hotmail accounts, etc.). Mehdi believes
that MSN can continue to provide "unique value" moving forward with new
services, access via any device, leadership in broadband (with a nationwide
offering later this year) and .NET services.
Mehdi also contrasted MSN's strategy and direction with that of AOL on several
fronts. First, AOL believes cross-media sales are the key, but Mehdi believes
MSN should strive to be best of breed on digital devices. Second, many believe
that AOL commands a dominant international presence, but Mehdi points out that
MSN has a presence in twice as many markets and is ranked #1 worldwide in
customer reach. Third, most believe that consumers prefer AOL's "walled
garden," but Mehdi believes that MSN is out-innovating AOL in the areas of
search, communications and commerce. Finally, AOL believes that online is all
that matters while MSN will attempt to offer online and offline experiences.
Finally, Mehdi outlined several MSN initiatives designed to increase digital
marketing revenues, including next generation advertising products (branding
and true DRM rather than cost per click), brand effectiveness research,
increased marketing value through site network integration, AdPoint 2001
Targeting Server which will allow the creation of targeted content and
advertising, and finally an end-to-end Portal-to-Platform service offering.
Mehdi believes MSN will succeed, over the next several years, in migrating
casual MSN users to Passport, converting them into Active Users, Members, and
eventually Premium Members.
JOHN O'ROURKE
Director of Game Sales and Marketing John O'Rourke reviewed Microsoft's gaming
initiatives. O'Rourke pointed out that XBox is not just about the gaming market
per se, but also protecting Microsoft's long-term position in the home against
Sony.
O'Rourke suggested that the key to XBox's success will be great games.
Microsoft anticipates a 30/70 split between first party and third party titles.
Our sources indicate that Microsoft may be focusing too intently on first party
titles at the expense of relationships with key third party developers
(probably because the company makes more money on first party titles). If the
focus on first party titles causes interest from third party developers to
wane, XBox may not fare well.
O'Rourke expects XBox to launch on schedule in North America on November 8 with
6-800,000 units in the channel. He expects the company to ship 4-6.5M units
during FY02.
BILL VEGHTE
Bill Veghte reiterated Microsoft's goal of providing platforms and applications
which bridge devices (handhelds, phones, appliances, etc.) with PCs, servers
and users over the Internet. While Veghte believes that devices will cease to
be islands, he also believes that there will continue to be significant
intelligence (computing muscle and rich user interfaces) in these devices. He
also pointed out that Microsoft currently boasts 9 automotive partners for
Windows CE automotive, 20 licensees for PocketPC and 4-5 partners building
smartphone solutions using Stinger.
JOHN CONNORS
CFO John Connors continued with a financial overview. Connors reiterated his
view that PC unit shipments will be flat to down yoy during the September
quarter, up slightly yoy during the December quarter, up 5-9% yoy during the
March and June quarters and up in the mid-single digits for the full year FY02.
We note that Microsoft's FY02 growth assumptions are about one half those of
IDC and about one third of our own. We continue to believe that Microsoft's
assumptions are conservative in this area.
In sizing the opportunity for Windows XP, Connors pointed out that roughly 85%
of the Windows installed base is still running either Windows 95 or Windows 98.
Connors does not, however, believe that Windows XP will spark a retail surge
during the fourth calendar quarter and no such surge is built into MSFT's
recent guidance. As for Office XP, Connors cited 145M current licenses, just
20% of which have migrated or have rights to migrate to Office XP already.
Within the Enterprise Segment, Connors cited VisualStudio.NET as a significant
revenue growth driver late in CY01.
Specifically on XBox, Connors commented that the initiative will post operating
losses during FY02, the amount of which will depend on the mix of first party
and third party titles, title attach rates and the competitive pricing
environment. Connors also noted that the entire increase in COGS as a percent
of sales from 14% in FY01 to 19-20% in FY02 will be fueled by XBox. We continue
to view XBox as a risk to current earnings estimates for 1CQ and 2CQ02.
Connors pointed out that Microsoft retired all outstanding put warrants on its
stock during 4FQ01---there is no remaining put liability.
Finally, Connors pointed out that the company's current guidance assumes a
"steady state" economy, mid-single digit PC growth rates and solid execution.
Connors views ongoing litigation, competition and the current rich valuation of
the stock to be risk factors.
STEVE BALMER
CEO Steve Balmer concluded the day with his usual words of inspiration. Balmer
pointed out that many of Microsoft's current investments are not intended to
bear fruit near-term, but that the company remains committed to "planting
seedlings for the next generation of analysts."
