Pooljuhtide tootjad: Kas paremad ajad möödas?
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Üleeile rabas Salomon Smith Barney turge pooljuhtide tootjate sektori reitingu allatoomisega, mispeale Philadelphia Semiconductors Index kukkus 9.3%.
Eile tegi indeks pool kaotus tagasi tõustes 4.5%.
Kas eilne tõus oli tingitud "ülemüüdud" olukorrast või on ülejäänud turuosaliste nägemus täpsem kui SSB-l.
Indeksisse kuuluvad aktsiad: Applied Materials, Broadcom, Intel, PMC Sierra, Texas Instruments -
Salomon pooljuhtidest täna:
* We continue to believe the sector is approaching
"Three Bottoms (or a Funeral)" with orders, units
and revenues likely to set cyclical lows by August.
* Managements at our conference this week should
largely reiterate June quarter forecasts of a 10-20%
decline in shipments, but also repeat their belief
that Q2 should be the seasonal low with a pickup in
the second half.
* Though equipment suppliers will continue to talk
of weaker 200mm revenues, they are clearly seeing
growing evidence of 300mm pilot activity, which
should the main driver of the next upcycle.
* In addition, investors seem to increasingly
believe technology stocks have seen their lows, and
hope to be buyers on any major pull-backs, which we
take to be an encouraging sign.
* Our top picks include Analog Devices in broadline,
Altera in communications, and Axcelis in
semiconductor equipment.
TEN TO INTEL AND AMD
Since at least seasonal health in the computer market is key to an overall
recovery in semiconductors, we believe the two processor companies, Intel
(INTC-$31, 1M) and AMD (AMD#-$31, 1S), will be closely listened to with regard
to demand. We believe Intel's quarter is coming solidly in line with guidance
for slightly up or flat revenues, while AMD recently suggested early Q2 demand
was beating their expectations.
We think that investors are gradually coming to realize that new lows in the
semiconductor index are unlikely and that the next big move may be up. Timing
is obviously difficult to call, however we get the sense that material moves to
the downside will be met by aggressive buying, which may further set a floor on
prices. Buying pressure is certainly supported by high cash levels, low
technology exposure, and a still generally negative sell side.
Our broadline pick for the conference is Analog Devices (ADI-$49, 1H). The
company reports next week and we suspect will guide analysts slightly lower for
their fiscal Q3 (July), given that comparables like National Semi (NSM-$26, 2H)
and Texas Instruments (TXN-$38, 1M) are still seeing weak order trends. Even
so, management's goal is to keep gross margins in this downturn higher than the
peak of two cycles ago, which is a real accomplishment for this leading
supplier of analog and DSPs.
COMMUNICATIONS ICS (CW): BOOKINGS STILL WEAK, BUT CANCELLATIONS SLOWED SHARPLY
For most communications IC companies, bookings remain weak. We are, however,
encouraged at the margin by the fact that the rate of cancellations and push-
outs appears to have slowed markedly during April. Many comm IC companies are
beginning to say that June will likely be the bottom, though they readily admit
visibility is very poor and most are not willing to give any indication about
September.
In the networking/comm space, we believe the most interesting stocks are those
that experienced a slowdown earliest, such as Altera (ALTR-$27, 1H), which
continues to look for a 20% decline in shipments this quarter, but has at least
stopped revising its outlook lower. We are also most interested in names that
could offer greater potential for valuation expansion, like Agere Systems
(AGR.A-$8, 1S).
The change in overall business tone from a free-fall to stabilization (the 'S'-
word) should remain the investment theme for the next few months, creating a
positive bias for the group.
GLEN YEUNG ON EQUIPMENT: TWO STEPS FORWARD, ONE STEP BACK
Based on our most recent checks with semiconductor equipment companies, April
bookings were in line with expectations, and companies were maintaining
optimism for flat to slightly up bookings in the June quarter; we expect a
reiteration of this at our conference.
While revenues will trend lower over the next few quarters driven by
significantly reduced 200mm activity, we continue to find evidence of growing
300mm pilot activity. We remain staunch in our view that 300mm will be the
main driver of the next cycle.
Despite weaker revenues and the necessary negative news-flow over the coming
months, this inflection in bookings, combined with renewed optimism on the
semiconductor front, has put the stocks in a "2 steps forward, 1 step back"
trading range. While we expect further volatility over seasonally weak June
quarter, we remain confident that the worst is behind us in the current
semiconductor equipment down-cycle.
