AU tööle
Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse
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Mis selle kulla ja hõbedaga täna juhtus.On see inflatsioonikartusest või on siin veel midagi taga.Teremere teab vist.GOX ja XAU + 9,5% ,samuti HM ,NEM jne.
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kuld kukkus lihtsalt kolksti vastu põrandat,põhja ja põrkas ülesse.Aga nohh,kullal on nüüd topeltlagi ülal,topeltpõhi all,väga huvitav...Hõbe on aga jahh tubliks hakanud.Inflatsioonikartusega siiski tegemist ei ole,karuturu-kartusega ikka.
HM,NEM,AU...kaevanduste aktsiad,see on spekulatiivne tõmblemine,vennad panustavad totaalsele karuturule,mis viib metallide hinnad taevasse.Nohh algas see juba detsembri alguses,mõnes kohas ka veidi varem.
Nasdaqi pilt näitab küll seda hetkel,et tulemas on kaua oodatud karuturu ralli.Kullla ja hõbeda jätaksin seetõttu rahule hetkel.Aga nohh,you never know...nagu öeldakse.:-)
Aktsiaturu kukkumisega kipub kuld ikka ülesse kimama.Suure depreka ajal,mil valuutad olid kullaga seotud,suurendas see veelgi majanduse allakäiku.Seepärast haagitigi valuutad kulla küljest lahti ning tehti vabalt konverteeritavaks. -
küsimus LHV`le. Kas teie kaudu saab osta GOX`i ja
XAU`d? -
Keiti, kahjuks mitte.
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Paistab ,et viimaste päevade kullarallile võib lisa tulla. Kaks suurt panka tugavad ostjad.
Sahinad...Inglismaa ja Sveitsi tulevad kullaoksionid võivad ära jääda. Laenajad kaovad
turult, sellest laenuprotsentide plahvatuslik tõus. Mis juhtub lühikeste armeega?
Mõttekäik võib natukene longata, kuna turuga ei ole eriti sina peal.
Mida LHV kaudu saaks ette võtta. Osta lisa kullatootjaid? GOX` ja XAU`d ei saa.
Eriti huvitaks tugevad hõbedatootjad, kuna seal
võib ralli alles alata.
Tänan. -
Tuleks tagasi teema juurde, mis vist kedagi ei huvita.
Tahaks teada, kuidas oleks võimalik panustada kulla, hõbeda hinna tõusule.
Kuna kasutan LHV´d ,siis saan osta ainult tootjate aktsiaid.
Ostaks optsiooni,kuidas võimalik teostada ? -
Muuseas huvitab küll, aga kuld ei ole kindlasti mitte nii lihtlabane instrument, mille suhtes mina julgeksin ostusoovitust anda. Kui oled pikka aega kõikvõimalike kulla-analüütikute juttu lugenud, tekib paraku mulje, et suur osa nende maailmast on üsna veider, kahtlustav ja petlikel illusioonidel põhinev muinasjutt. Näiteks loen ma praegu www.LeMetropoleCafe.com jutte, mis põhiliselt keerlevad müstiliste salakokkulepete ümber, mis takistavad kulla hinnal oma "õigele" tasemele tõusmist. Kuna hulk arutlejaid on LAV'st, siis on huvi kulla hinna tõusu suhtes loomulik, kuna seal seda kraami peaks jaguma.
No vähemlt on nende juttu huvitav lugeda (umbes nagu Harry Potterit :-))!
Aga "muu maailma kullatarkade", kellede kirjutisi ma olen näinud jutus võib tihti leida eelduse, mis minu jaoks on tühja koha peale loodud: "kui iga maailma inimene ostaks kõigest mingi väga väikese koguse kulda (näiteks see), küll siis algaks aega... Kulla tähtsus maailmas on "safe heaven'i" staatusena vähenenud ja hind on 21 aastat järjest langenud, muutes mõnedki kullaga tegelejatest muinasjutuvestjate taolisteks vanade hiilgeaegade meenutajateks.
Jah, kui kullale lisaks tavatarbimisele lisanduks taas see maagiline turvalisuse lisaväärtus, siis AU=UP-up-up... Mina pole selles väga veendunud ja seetõttu minult PASS. -
to Kristjan
Eks neid uskujaid on lihtsalt viimasel ajal juurde tulnud ja võtame näiteks sellised numbrid
* kullafirmade market cap. kokku 50B .
* näit. AOL 190B.
See nüüd puudutab tootjate hinnatõusu. Ja kui tõesti algab kulla hinna tõus siis viimase kuu jooksul on juba märgata kuidas need võivad liikuda
Ei ole mingi proff, aga eile õhtul hakati tootjaid päris suurte plokkidena ostma.
Samuti kõik see müra GATA poolt ja mõningad tõsised tehnilised probleemid ning palju selleks ralliks siis vaja on.
Mida arvad lühikeste lõksust. Kullalaenud on ju 12 000 t. plussis. Millalgi peab ju sein ette tulema. -
(Lühike?)ralli on praegusest seisust tõesti üsna tõenäoline - siiski minult PASS. LeMetropole'st leiab muuseas GATA (Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc) tegemiste kohta päris palju.
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Gold is trading $5 higher in the futures markets, above $270, and flirting with a major technical breakout.
Gold is a classic inflation/deflation indicator. Those of us worried most about deflation have been terrified by gold's drop, so seeing it revive here is a very good thing.
I know, I know, it's a "barbaric metal" and all that. But as they say around here, "ignore it at your peril."
The thing you SHOULD ignore are the warnings that a rise in gold at this point is dangerously inflationary. We need a little (repeat, a little) reinflation at this point. It's the only cure for the deflation that's eating us alive here. -
March 11, 2001 - Spot Gold $271.60 up $6.20 Spot Silver $5.50 up two cents
Think Big Picture When it Comes to Gold and Silver; There is Big Money in It.
Friday was a very important day for the gold market. It was firm all session long as one month lease rates soared, gyrating between 6 and 7 %. Only a couple of weeks ago they were .7%. Something serious is going on here, to say the least, and the stress is showing up in the gold price as well as the lease rate.
As reported in my Midas Gold Alert on Friday, massive buy stops were building on the Comex floor at $272.50, right above the active April contract high for the day. While gold never gave back more than an inch during the trading session, the highs were not seriously challenged late in the day. Volume was very heavy as an increasingly panicky Gold Cartel brought out the Guns of Navarone one more time to prevent a rout and a close above key technical resistance at $272, basis the April contract. Volume was very heavy the last half hour at 17,000 contracts. That means the GUNS were really blazing. The Gold Cabal was not only shooting a lot of bullets at the gold buyers, they were sweating them.
It is not unusual for commodity bulls, that are gunning for bear stops, not to try and push through on the close. Why? Because they can launch an assault in thinner market overseas conditions and move gold sharply higher when there is less resistance. Then, instead of stops being touched off at $272.50, they are stopped off at say $277. More bang for the buck.
One can never say that will happen tonight or Monday morning, but I have seen it go that way many times.
Just as the desperate attempt of The Gold Cartel was evident in their effort to stomp out the gold stampede late in the Comex session, so was somebody's decision to kill the XAU shares in the last hour of the day. With gold making its biggest move in a long, long time and the stock market cratering, the XAU dived late to 55.01, down 1.77. VERY ODD indeed.
Here is one explanation:
Subj: A conflict of interest story in gold - Scotia Capital and Scotia Mocatta
Date: 3/10/01 12:43:01 PM Central Standard Time
From: lenden@swbell.net (Dennis Shumaker)
Sender: longwaves-owner@csf.colorado.edu
To: GATAComm@aol.com
THIS IS A CONFLICT OF INTEREST STORY FOLKS and it concerns GOLD!
Scotia Capital downgrades pretty much the entire gold sector during a time of very high gold lease rates! Why a conflict of interest? ScotiaMocatta, their brethren is into leasing, selling forward, and other derivatives. They also work closely with central banks! So while Scotia Mocatta is having a hard time with high lease rates, their partners in crime Scotia Capital downgrades a myriad of gold shares (some to the rarely used SELL category)!
BTW/ you did notice which stock they downgraded to a SELL? Homestake - HM, HM is the one that lead this charge in November from its bottom of nearly 3 9/16 !! It's the best performer. So they downgrade HM the best performer to a sell and they downgrade Barrick's, one of he world's BIGGEST gold hedgers from a Strong buy to a buy. BTW/ Barricks, ABX was one of the worst performers in the last couple of gold share waves.
Here are the links to the brief snippets of DOWNGRADES that happened yesterday during the POG peak and exactly when the 1 and 2 month lease rates exploded higher during the day!! The one month was cut in half in Friday morning, but by the time the day wore on it exploded. That's when Scotia Capital issued these myriad of GOLD downgrades.
http://www.thebulliondesk.com/DJNews\4463568.htm <= PDG BUY -> HOLD
http://www.thebulliondesk.com/DJNews\4463544.htm <= NEM STRONG BUY -> BUY
http://www.thebulliondesk.com/DJNews\4463445.htm <= GG HOLD -> REDUCE
http://www.thebulliondesk.com/DJNews\4463401.htm <= ABX STRONG BUY -> BUY
http://www.thebulliondesk.com/DJNews\4463454.htm <= HM HOLD -> SELL (WHY A SELL??)
http://www.thebulliondesk.com/DJNews\4463415.htm <= AEM BUY -> REDUCE
http://www.thebulliondesk.com/DJNews\4463509.htm <= MDG BUY -> HOLD
http://www.thebulliondesk.com/DJNews\4463481.htm <= KGC HOLD -> REDUCE
Scotia Capital single handily brought down the gold sector by issuing a massive number of downgrades. LOOK AT THESE STOCKS AND ESPECIALLY THE XAU during the last hour of trading when these DOWNGRADES OCCURRED? Coincidence? I think not!
Also, they downgraded AEM to a worse level than MDG. MDG [performance always exceeds or meets AEM performance at the start of a move. AEM will exceed MDG as the move gets going. WHY?== MDG is a relatively big hedger for its size and AEM doesn't hedge.
Scotia LIKES HEDGERS. If they don't, they why are they showing a clear pattern of behavior that discriminates against NON hedgers ???] Like I said Scotia is EVIL! Scotia Capital and ScotiaMocatta are in bed with each other LOOK at the first sentence of this page!!
http://www.scotiacapital.com/English/ScotiaMocatta/Fr_ScotiaMocatta.htm
YES SCOTIA CAPITAL PROVIDES SERVICES TO SCOTIAMOCATTA - THEY DOWNGRADE GOLD SHARES SO PEOPLE WILL BECOME LESS HYPED ABOUT THE GOLD MARKET - which will help to greatly reduced gold leasing rates THAT ARE VERY HIGH by the way and save their BUDDIES ScotiaMocatta millions upon million of dollars!
Dennis
-END-
Three points I would like to make:
1. Dennis makes both sense and a lot of good points.
2. GATA does not believe ScotiaMocatta is part of The Gold Cartel.
3. ScotiaMocatta is going to look very nalve as time goes by - like clueless.
The email outrage I received over the XAU sell off was quite something. Shares of non-XAU gold companies closed at their highs of the day, so I guess this partly explains the uproar. The sharp move down in the XAU shares looked very suspicious.
It is interesting that on the eve of one of the great commodity moves in history, the Canadian brokerages that are known for peddling goldshares are just yawning - taking profits on a business as usual basis.
What I do know from my 28 years of trading background is that the trade is always short at the bottoms of the biggest commodity moves in history. You can take that one to the bank.
If any Café members know the SM gold folks, tell them that I would love to chat with them at the Prospectors and Developers Convention in Toronto the next few days.
From James Stock in South Africa:
Maybe your Reg Howe and James Turk could do some research into the 1960's when the "Gold Pool" kept supplying gold at $35 an ounce and preventing it from finding its true level until the late 1970's early 1980's. France was the first to break ranks (Charles de Gaulle exiting the Gold Pool) and eventually the UK pound sterling devaluation under Harold Wilson in 1967 made UK support redundant. The USA was left on its own - a fact recognised by Richard Nixon in the early 1970's when he closed the "gold window" by confirming the USA wouldn't sell any more at $35 (it hadn't been selling for a while) but he just rubber stamped reality. Then the USA etc tried to get gold below $35 by refusing to buy gold at $35 - effectively forcing South Africa to sell all of its gold on the free market and temporarily forcing it below $35 until Nico Diederichs negotiated a deal (spurred on by the Swiss) for the Central Banks (in effect the USA) to agree to buy if/when gold fell below $35. There was obviously some small print attached to this deal - which no doubt you all can dig up.
The point I am trying to get across is that eventually somebody/some bodies breaks ranks and the gold price re-asserts its free market level. Today it could be the Japanese (they have bought 20% of Harmony) and/or the Oil sheiks interesting how Colin Powell is suggesting softening of sanctions towards Iraq). Could there be a "gold" deal behind the scenes where the Oil sheiks restrain themselves from converting their oil earnings surpluses back into gold !!??. Remember it is not what politicians say, but rather what they do, that should be monitored.
-END-
I have the pleasure of going out to dinner with those Japanese people (Jipangu) on Monday night along with gold company executive, Nick Ferris, from Vancouver. Both Jipangu and Nick have been significant GATA supporters for some time now.
Gold bull Sir Harry Schultz is still the Café's main man, but I thought you like to read the latest from Richard Russell:
R Russell Dow Theory Letter Fri March 9
March 9, 2001 - I'm going to start with GOLD. It's on the move. In the commodities column of today's WSJ an "expert" complains that all we've seen in gold for months is one-day pops based on short covering. That's what I like to hear - skepticism. After dozens of false starts, who's to believe this one is the real thing? I guess I do. I bought "in the money" call options on gold yesterday, the 260s of June -- today I bought gold futures with a close stop. I know there are a slew of gold shorts out there plus call options that have been sold (not bought) against gold. This should help if the primary trend of gold is turning up.
Looking at the daily chart of June gold, I see a large "head-and-shoulders" bottom with the breakout coming at 273.50. If June gold can close above 274, the "count" on this pattern could take gold to near 300. I might add that upside counts tend to work in bull markets and fail in bear markets. There's no way of telling whether the primary trend of gold has actually turned up yet, but if it has, then gold is on its way to working higher, maybe considerably higher.
June gold gapped above its 50-day moving average today (50-day MA is 268.7). The next target would be the 200-day MA which stands at 279.90. This level is almost identical with the important December 7 high peak of 281.10.
At what point would I say that the primary trend of gold had turned bullish? Looking at the monthly chart, the first major declining trendline connects the February and October peaks. To break that trendline to the upside would require gold to advance to 295 or to be safe above 300. The October high was 327. If 300 is bettered I'd say there was a good chance that the primary trend of gold has turned bullish. Above 327 and I'd be reasonably sure that gold was finally riding the big bull. We're not there yet.
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Täna hommikul hüppas kullahind korra 297.52USDini
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Kuld läheb päris hästi pärast "tehnilise 275 taseme" läbimist. Aga suure "kullaajastu" alguse asemel on vast peamine räme rahapakkumise kasv, mis praegu enamiku paate kõrgemale upitab?
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Goldman Sachs tõstis eile mitmete kullakaevandusfirmade 12 kuu hinnasihte.
Põhjuseks loomulikult intressilõikamisele järgnenud AU hinna tõus:
Goldman Sachs analysts Daniel McConvey and Jim
Copland upped the target prices on shares
of Freeport-McMoRan Copper and
Gold (FCX) to $18 from $15, Barrick Gold
(ABX) to $21 from $20, Placer
Dome (PDG) to $13 from $11, Normandy Mining
(NDY) to $1.30 from $1.10,
Newcrest Mining to $4.75 from $4, and Newmont
Mining (NEM) to $25 from $18.
The target price on ADRs of
South Africa-based AngloGold (AU) was raised to
$23 from $20.
McConvey and Copland also said
in a report that they re-established a target
price for Homestake Mining (HM)
at $8.00 and Lihir Gold (LIHRY) at 90 cents. -
Keiti - kulda kaubeldakse nagu igat teist valuutat. helista panka ja küsi kuld spot please.
kulda kaubeldakse marginarvetel ning ei ole mingit probleem kaubelda seda 20 kordse võimendusega. Kui tõesti kuskilt ei saa, siis saada mulle meil viies2@hot.ee
olen nõus su oma brokeri juurde viima aga miinimum kauplemiskogused on seal natsa suured. -
Miks kulla hind täna langes?
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Mulle tundub, et kuld jääb vaatamata viimaste päevade langusele aktuaalseks, siin ports kullakaevandusi
ANGLOGOLD LTD AU 2:19PM 18.87 -0.58 -2.98% 2:19PM 18.87 -0.58 -2.98% 174,700 BARRICK GOLD ABX 2:20PM 17.11 -0.35 -2.00% 2:20PM 17.11 -0.35 -2.00% 1,125,600 COEUR D'ALENE CDE 2:21PM 1.44 -0.07 -4.64% 2:21PM 1.44 -0.07 -4.64% 286,600 ECHO BAY MINES ECO 1:54PM 0.98 -0.06 -5.77% 1:54PM 0.98 -0.06 -5.77% 111,300 HECLA MINING CO HL 2:19PM 1.23 -0.05 -3.91% 2:19PM 1.23 -0.05 -3.91% 218,700 HOMESTAKE MINING HM 2:21PM 6.76 -0.49 -6.76% 2:21 PM 6.76 -0.49 -6.76% 1,376,000 KINROSS GOLD KGC May 25 0.86 -0.08 -8.51% May 25 0.86 -0.08 -8.51% 582,800 NEWMONT MINING NEM 2:21PM 21.15 -0.82 -3.73% 2:33 PM 21.18 -0.79 -3.60% 1,419,500 PLACER DOME INC PDG 2:21PM 11.16 -0.46 -3.96% 2:21PM 11.16 -0.46 -3.96% 716,700 ja igasugust infi KULLA kohta sellel aadressil: www.kitco.com
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Kuld tegi reede jälle kiire hüppe üles:
Gold closed up $7.30 today as speculators jumped back into the market.
$266 > $273.30 -
FT kullast Vaadates seda, kui innukaks kullasõbrad viimasel ajal on muutunud, peaks prognoosima kulla liikumist hoopis alla 200 USD... :-)
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In New York, gold for April delivery rallied to an 18-month
high of $299.80 an ounce as investors -- nervous after days of
concerns about corporate accounting irregularities -- sought a
safe haven.
Kuidas liikumist ära kasutada? -
Kuld üle 300
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Black Box Forecasts: "Six hours ahead of its time"
Rick Ackerman
for Wednesday February 6, 2002
Card-House of Morgan
TRADING NOTES: It is hardly a coincidence that bullion prices zoomed to $300 on the day that J.P. Morgan Chase shares came crashing through their September lows. As I wrote here the other day, Morgan's problems could eventually dwarf those of Enron. They are bound up together right now, to the extent Morgan -- the largest lender in the world to U.S. firms -- supposedly has Enron exposure that exceeds $2.3 billion. However, as my recent note here suggested, the banking giant's risk in the derivatives markets could be considerably higher, since it holds leveraged debt paper with a notional value exceeding $30 trillion. You'd think things could not get much scarier than that, but on Tuesday -- with gold prices soaring -- they did. As it happens, Morgan is a big player in the gold market, mostly by way of bullion loans that work best when gold prices are weak. Those of you who went to the article I flagged last week by DeTocqueville Fund's John Hathaway will already know this. But for those of you who did not, here is the salient part of it concerning J.P. Morgan Chase:
The concentration of gold derivatives in the hands of one institution cannot be comforting to central bankers who had originally lent their gold reserves to a wide array of bullion dealers. JP Morgan Chase, also a major counter party to Enron in a variety of energy derivatives, held 80% of the gold derivatives reported by the OCC (Office of Controller and Currency) as of 9/30/01. Although total gold derivatives reported to the OCC have declined from the peak levels of $87.6 billion at year-end 1999, JP Morgan held only 40% of the total that time, which was prior to the merger with Chase. The decline in OCC-reported gold derivatives from the 1999 year end peak is most likely due to an offloading of positions to a non-OCC reporting entity such as Enron, an Enron-like organization, or a foreign bank. Now that many have abandoned the gold derivatives trade, it appears that JP Morgan Chase has become the rear guard to defend the derivatives universe against higher gold prices.
A "rear-guard" defense? If so, Da Boyz will have their hands full today, since gold's assault on $300 during yesterday's (Tuesday's) session hardly looked like it was going to subside quietly overnight. I had projected a short-term target for the April Comex gold contract in the range 305-306, but practically speaking, anything could happen. Morgan has friends in high places, as we all know, and they have proven many times in the past that they have both the resolve and the muscle to keep the gold price from drifting upwards of $300. Sooner or later, though, even more powerful forces than Morgan and its friends were bound to prevail.
Will it be this week?
Stay tuned. -
Tere,
siin foorumist esimest korda, loodan et ei kupatata algajate juurde. Tegelen ise igapäevaselt kullaga kaubeldes, kuid kulla-firmade aktsiatega pole varem tegelenud. Lugesin hiljuti üht arvamust nende aktsiate kohta, mis proffid arvavad nende spekulatsioonide õigsuse kohta:
By Thom Calandra
www.CBS.MarketWatch.com
Wednesday, Feb. 6, 2002
...
Yet gold's optimists, having waited almost six years
for a sustained rally in bullion prices, are not about to
give up. Some see the price of the metal making $20
and $30 daily moves. As Franco-Nevada co-founder
Pierre Lassonde explained to me, each $10 rise in gold's
price magnifies an established mining company's pretax
cash flow.
"If gold goes to $350 an ounce, pre-tax cash flow (for
Newmont) would be about $1.6 billion, or $4 a share
on a pro-forma basis. So the stock would have to go
between $50 and $60, based on 12 times cash flow,"
Lassonde says. Cash flow in 2001 for Newmont was
$381 million, or $1.95 a share. Newmont shares sell for
$25 on the New York Stock Exchange.
...
Kullaputuk -
kired JP Morgani ümber ei vaibu. Kus suitsu sel tuld?
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_02/hamilton010702.html -
usa-st eestile kuldaktsia...
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Olete kuulnud sellisest varade klassifitseerimisest: paper assets(aktsiad ja võlakirjad) ja hard assets(nagu kinnisvara,nafta,kuld)
US dollari nõrgenemine viib investorite fookuse paper assetitelt hard assetitele väidavad mõned spetsialistid:
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/yhoo/story.asp?
source=blq/yhoo&siteid=yhoo&dist=yhoo
&guid=%7BFF41A48B%2D2717%2D4B2E%2D952F%2DD2CF31604781%7D
Eile lõpetas kuld 312usd tasemel, nii kallis oli kullaunts viimati 99 aasta oktoobris -
Kullaaktsiajte jälgijatele:
GOLD kaupleb t'nasest NYSEl GFI tähistuse all -
When Gold Works
By James J. Cramer
Gold's a loser. I have been saying that for 15 years. That has been right for 15 years. Until the threats on civilization. Because the one thing we know is that gold will still be worth something after any particular nation is destroyed, and people are now hedging their bets against that grim prospect.
I have been taught that you bought gold when inflation roared, and it is certainly not roaring.
I have been taught that you bought gold as a hedge against inflation in paper assets, and paper assets aren't inflating.
But I was also taught that gold works in the event of nuclear war. Sure enough, that's the new parameter and it can't be denied post 9/11, especially given the amount of scare warnings that we have been receiving since it came out that we may have known something about 9/11. Talk about a cruel diversion from that "when do we know" stuff.
I know that all I hear about when I am interviewed these days is gold. I also know that gold stocks were the best-performing stocks in the first quarter and if they don't come down here they will be the best in the second one, too.
I also know that the dollar's decline is fueling the gold rise.
What do you do? I am not buying gold shares. But if there were ever a time when I could at least understand why gold works, it would be now.
There is only one problem: If the main reason people are buying gold plays out, will you really give a %#$@ about your money?
I didn't think so. -
Gold spiking on short squeeze
Gold is now up $4.95 to $320.90/ounce; we're hearing that a short squeeze is boosting the metal today. The XAU is up 2.4% and gold stocks are moving higher once again: NEM +0.47, ABX +0.42, AU +0.91, GG +0.95, PDG +0.56. -
Uuendan vahepeal muudetud asukohaga linki 2001 a. kirjutatud kullakommentaarile. Tänane FT on artiklis Precious mettle üpris palju kulda puudutavaid teemasid käsitlenud, soovitan lugeda!
