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VRSN

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  • VRSN fourth-quarter earnings (24.1) smashed forecasts.

    The company reported pro forma net earnings, excluding the costs of amortization of goodwill and other intangible assets, of $45.5 million, or 21 cents per diluted share, vs. pro forma net earnings of $38.4 million, or 18 cents per diluted share, in the third quarter 2000.

    The consensus analyst forecast for VeriSign was for earnings of 11 cents per share, according to First Call/Thomson Financial.

    Graafik näitab, et 120 peaks vähemalt tulema. Ega midagi poleks ka 140 vastu :)

  • Ma jään huviga 120 ootama.
    Järelturul langes 75 peale.
  • Järgnev jutt on küll ligi aasta vana aga firma positsioon turul pole halvenenud.

    Verisign is like the Passport Office of the New Economy. It has a hold on the digital certificate market and just purchased Network Solutions, giving it a huge hold on Internet registrations. So, if you want to secure your e-mail, set up a website or just do business on the Net, Verisign is a company you will probably do business with. Given the 120% rise in Internet registrations from fourth quarter 1999 to first quarter 2000, Internet growth will continue to be huge. And so will Verisign.

    Game over dominator: 85% market share in one of the key components of e-commerce—user ID service. Just like Microsoft is to the PC, VRSN is to the Net.

    Huge addressed market: 56,000 servers being added to the Net every month—every one needs a URL and a user ID service. 500 million Internet users all need to be individually identified.

    Obscene profit growth: 60% profit margins on revenues growing 257% over the next 24 months.

    Massive growth: Adding 250,000 new customers a month … and growing.

    Extending their lead: Buying the dominant URL registration service that adds $78 million in cash flow per quarter.

    Massive reach: 9 out of 10 online businesses will be buy at least one service from VRSN this year.

    No surprises: Growing its deferred revenues faster than its reportable revenues; great safety net and opportunity for earnings cushions.

    Great Partners: Dept. of Defense; 350,000 vendors just added, MSFT, CSCO, 14 states just adopted their digital ID or signature service—20 more on the way.
  • Tundub pikaajaline kena kasv. Samas EBAY ja YHOO masti market cap muudab ta shortijate lemmikuks.
    Ilmselt ka väga volatiilseks ja head närvi vajavaks.
  • Hea aeg 16 aasta vanune teema üles ärata.

    Ettevaatust!
    Tehnoloogias ostupaanika ja VRSN tahab kohe-kohe lendama hakata.
    VRSN täna 92,95 dollarit.
    VRSN eelmine 2015. aasta tipp 93,94 dollarit ehk oleme eelmisest tipust täpselt ühe dollari kaugusel. Sealt edasi kuni 2000. aastal tehtud kõigide aegade tipuni (219,52 $) vaba maa.
    Ohtlikuks teeb olukorra see, et VRSN volatiilsus viimase viie kuu jooksul olnud ekstreemselt madal ja aktsia on kaubelnud erakordselt kitsas koridoris - viitab väga headele eeldustele koridorist ülespoole välja murda.
    Lisaks. Kuna kõik 1999. ja 2000. aasta liikumised 100-200 dollari koridoris toimusid väga kiiresti, siis tõstab tõenäosust, et aktsia hakkab siit 200 dollari suunas väga kiiresti liikuma. See, et turul on laiapõhjaline ostupaanika lisab ainult õli tulle.

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