MER näeb L-stsenaariumi, uusi reegleid
Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse
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MER avaldas 3. augustil investeerimisalase kirjatöö, mille järgi USA-turg liigub mitmekümneaastases aktiivsuse tsüklis. Viimane tipp saavutati 2000. aastal ja eelnev 1968. aastal. Hinnatasemete ja aktsiate populaarsuse põhi oli 1982. Samuti väideti, et arenevad turud ja Jaapan peaks lähiaastatel olema USA-turust tulusamad. Mõlemal turul on aktsiad fundamentaalselt odavad. Ajaloo kordumine peaks seal hindu kergitama.
Research'i aadress
...More importantly, the late stages of a secular bull trend are characterized by
intense speculation, historic excess valuations, record public participation,
deteriorating breadth, and economic weakness. Secular inflection points are
difficult to identify except by these characteristics and the contractions that follow
these extremes because it spreads out over time. Even though it is not easy to
recognize secular shifts as they are occurring, it is worth the effort because the
rules of engagement for investors shift dramatically. What worked in the long
ever rising bull markets such as the US in the 1920s, the 1950s and 1960s, and
Japan in the 1970s and 1980s is not likely to work in the subsequent long contraction phase. We know the 1980s and 1990s also had all these characteristics
and now a lot of signposts of significant change are appearing. We have seen the
biggest drop in stocks as a percentage of household assets since the early 1970s,
the first drop ever in the value of 401K accounts, one of the biggest declines ever
in margin debt, the first time since 1974 that venture funds had two losing quarters
in a row, the biggest decline in the number of investment clubs since the late
1960s; IPOs, merger activity and share repurchases, hallmarks of the 1980s and
1990s bull market, have fallen to the lowest levels in many years, etc. If these
indications of change are evidences that a secular shift is taking place, then we can
look at history to gain insight into what to expect. ... -
Samas nähakse kinnisvaramulli lõhkemise ohtu USA-s, kui aktsiaturud ei taastu ning uute liidersektorite väljakujunemist tehnoloogia asemel. Tundub, et prognoosid tuginevad intuitiivsetele korduste otsimisele sajandi kogemusest.
Põhilised prognoositavad muutused on veel: väärtusaktsiatesse investeerimise strateegia kerkimine kasvuaktsiatesse investeerimisele asemele ja väiksemate ettevõtete suuremat edu suurtega võrreldes. Muidugi on see vaid ühe analüütikute seltskonna nägemus.
1. Stock returns to go from well above average to below average.
2. Large cap growth to underperform and portfolios indexed to the S&P 500 to
give below average returns.
3. Value investing to give above average returns.
4. Small cap to outperform (growth and value).
5. Momentum investing to have limited success and buy on weakness value
strategies to outperform.
6. International markets to outperform the U.S. in the next few years.
7. Commodity related securities to have enhanced returns and debt securities to
have lower returns.
8. High volume and high volatility market peak characteristics to be superceded
by less active markets and lower volatility.
9. Average price earnings multiples to gradually decline and stock gains to be
greatest in companies showing operating profit improvement or growth.
10. New leadership to replace the dominance of the technology sector in recent years.
11. Maximizing stock returns to be replaced by preservation of capital.
12. Dividends to become a greater contributor to average stock returns. -
Lühidalt, stsenaarium prognoosib USA turul sarnast arengut, kui Eestis peale 97. aastat.
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Huvitav lugeda, ent siiski klassikaline näide not-moneymaking researchist. Kui stockpicking ikka totaalselt imeb, siis aetakse investoritele taolist iba...
Aktsiaturu minevikus on niipalju infot, et ainult endale meelepäraseid asju arvesse võttes saab ennustada mida iganes. -
Aktsiaturul kauplejad kalduvad sageli ignoreerima ebameeldivat infot. Langeb aga ei müü, tõuseb aga ei osta. Ise olen turust targem.
