Sonera+Telia
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Mida rahvas Sonerast arvab? Tundub, et Sonera puhul võib tekkida sama efekt nagu juhtus Amazoniga, kus Amazoni kasumisse jõudmine põhjustas loogilise jätkuna ka aktsiahinna suure ralli. Sonera aktsia kiiret tõusu on seni pidurdanud suur võlakoorem, sest finantskulud söövad ära kogu teenitud ärikasumi. Edukalt läbi viidud aktsiaemissioon lisas aga tunduvalt usaldusväärsust Sonera võlgade teenindamisvõime osas, mistõttu ise spekuleerin, et varsti tuleb Soneralt rida meeldivaid üllatusi. Kas on antud väite toetajaid?
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Sonera on mingis mõttes poliitiline nähtus. Ei ole usutav, et Soome riik lubaks temaga midagi katastroofilist juhtuda.
Kui tuleb ebameeldivaid yllatusi, kalduksin arvama, et riik tuleb appi, nagu seda juba juhtunud on.
PS. See on isiklik ja subjektiivne arvamus, mis ei põhine faktidel ning võib olla ekslik. -
100% luuseriga n6us
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Soneraga on veel see asi, et erinevates regioonides ja erinevatel aegadel saavutatud tulemused on kardinaalselt erinevad ja kui kõik need tulemused kokku liidetakse, saadakse mingi hirmus segane kompott, millest on raske midagi mõistlikku järeldada, kui just täpsemat tausta ei tea.
Yhelausega tundub, et seal on koledal moel hobuseid ja lambaid omavahel kokku liidetud. -
soneral 2001.a. l6pus 2,4 mio klienti ja markkinaosuus GSM-liitymistä yli 60%. sonera on V6IMSALT turul.
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ALL ABOUT PRICE AND FORM OF PAYMENT
Neither operator has given any detail about the talks. The price and cash
components are unknown and the talks could well be at an early stage. By
market capitalization, Telia is about twice the size of Sonera so control
would rest with Telia. The top executive spot might, however, go to
Koponen. This possibility arises because of the CEO succession issue at
Telia and the good (if short) track record of Sonera's CEO.
In our view, the talks are likely to be very much centered on price and
payment form:
1 We think Sonera is worth standalone $6/EUR6.4 on conservative
sum-of-the-parts and DCF valuations. We have sales growth well under 5%.
2 The higher the cash component, the better an offer would be for
Sonera shareholders. We see no great advantages for a Sonera shareholder
to swap into Telia shares unless the offer occurs at a very advantageous
ratio. This ratio would have to be beyond the circa 1:2 ratio that
current market capitalization suggests. We would expect implied valuation
of Sonera above $6.20/EUR7.
3 A large cash component may push the Swedish Government's stake in the
combined entity over 50%. (In an all-share deal the stake would likely be
below 50%.) A Telia stake over 50% may be a difficult scenario for the
Finnish Government to accept because the Swedish government controls
Telia. The Finnish Government may insist that the Swedish Government hold
less than 50% of a merged entity.
FUNDAMENTAL VALUE IN SONERA
To us it is not a foregone conclusion that a merger will occur. The
synergies available are not strongly compelling to us. That puts a limit
on the potential bid price. A bid from Telia is also complicated by the
Swedish Government's potential controlling stake.
We do, however, see fundamental value. Sonera is executing on its
turnaround, but that is not fully in the share price, in our view. We
maintain our 2H (Outperform, High Risk) rating and $6/EUR6.4 target price
on Sonera. -
Telia AB (S.TLA) and Sonera Corp. (SNRA) have agreed
most of the issues surrounding a proposed merger, and a deal between the two
Nordic telecom operators is expected to be presented Tuesday afternoon, Swedish
radio reported at midday Tuesday, citing unnamed sources.
The two sides haven't yet agreed on a chief executive for the combined
company, although the CEO isn't expected to come from Sonera, Swedish radio
Dagens Ekot said.
Swedish newspapers have speculated that Sonera Chief Executive Harri Koponen
might lead the combined group.
The two companies have yet to agree on a final price, Swedish radio said.
As reported by The Wall Street Journal Europe, Sweden's government met Tuesday
morning to consider the merger. The Swedish government has a 70% stake in Telia,
while the Finnish government has a 53% stake in Sonera.
The Swedish government is expected to dramatically reduce its stake as part of
the deal, Ekot said.
Both Telia and Sonera are the largest telecom operators in their countries.
Telia is also holding talks with Danish mobile operator TDC A/S (TLD), Ekot
said. -
Sonera Hldrs To Get 1.51440 Telia Shares For Each Shr
Sonera Hldrs To Get 15.8% Premium In Telia Merger Offer -
Positives
* We think that this is a strategically sound deal, adding scale with
little geographic overlap.
* The deal is friendly, with key decisions already taken, boding well for
rapid completion and successful integration.
* For Telia the premium appears small, though in part reflecting limited
scope for synergy.
* The deal improves the competitive position of both companies, principally
in Finland.
* The deal creates a stronger entity with an attractive growth profile and
robust balance sheet.
Negatives
* The deal creates a significant overhang. Both Finnish (19%) and Swedish
(45%) governments are committed to selling down their stakes within the five
years after closure. Note, though this was an issue prior to the deal, so is
not a substantial change.
* Synergies appear small (at around 3% of combined 2005 revenue),
reflecting limited overlap.
* We see some acqusition risk, centred around the lack of a significant
presence in Denmark. TDC, Telenor potential partners. -
Kas Teie olete juba lugenud sonera raamatut?
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Päris huvitav asi...
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Kas keegi võiks tiba seletada, mis nipiga siis aksiavahetuse soovist teatama peab?
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ilmselt polegi eriti valikuvõimalust
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Ikka ei saa pihta?
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nii
sa saad yhe sonera aktsia eest 1.5144 telia aktsiat, vahetuse tegemiseks helista näiteks oma maaklerile.
hetkeseisuga on vähemalt 88% aktsionäridest pakkumisega n6ustunud.
sonera aktsia maksab hetkel 5.32 eurot (+2.31%)
kui sa ei vaheta omi aktsiaid ja telia saab 15 novembriks 90% aktsiatest kokku, siis tehakse sundv66randamine ja saad 5eurot per aktsia (ÄPO). -
Veidi täpsustaks: LHV kliendid, kes omasid Sonera aktsiaid, said selle pakkumise kohta meili, mis sisaldas pakkumise tingimusi, LHV-ga peaksid ühendust võtma ainult need kliendid, kes soovivad rahalist arveldust. Kui vastavat soovi ei esitata, siis vahetatakse Sonera aktsia 1.5144 Telia aktsia vastu.
Kuna Telia pakkus iga Sonerra aktsia eest 5 eurot, siis praegusel hetkel on kasulikum nõustuda aktsiavahetusega, mille puhul saaks iga investor umbes 5.32 euro väärtuses Telia aktsiaid.
