Börsipäev 3. okt
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Tere hommikut ka minu poolt:
AMD hoiatusel polnud piisavalt suurt jõudu, et Intelit (INTC) pikalt all hoida. Samas on ülejäänud SMH komponendid sügavas punases. Kas Intel näitab teed põrkele? Shortijaid hoiab praegu varvastel võimalik FOMC otsus kärpida intressimäärasid. See uudis viiks praegu turu kiirele tõusule.
Arko Kadajane tegi teile paar graafikut:
Head kauplemist,
sB -
10:04 ET ISM, Orders slightly better than expected : The ISM services index rose to 53.9% in Sep from 50.9% in August - this was better than the 51.4% consensus, though this release has a short track record and the implications of this small increase are difficult to determine. Factory Orders were a bit better than expected as well, remaining unchanged in August vs a consensus of -0.6%, though this was not a significant upside surprise for this report. The market has moved on the ISM services number - there has been a tendency to overreact to this report in both directions in recent months
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Oodatust parem ISM-services näitaja pani korraks turu paikima,
nüüd tuli piik allapoole: turul kuulukas, et homsed tööjõuturunumbrid, mis on väga nörgad on välja lekkinud:
Rumors of Unemployment nubmer leaked out..very weak. thats this sudden weakness -
Veritas Software CFO juhtum on vägagi kahetsusväärne ning ei imestaks, kui tulevikus sarnaseid olukordi veel tuleb, kus suure firma juht oma CV's midagi kokku valetab. Arvatakse, et 40% juhtudest ei ole CV'd päris tõesed.
Kas sellest võib saada järgmine komistuskivi USA'le? Usaldust see igatahes tagasi ei aita võita.
Loodame, et Eestis sarnaseid juhtumeid ei ole... -
Õhtu hilja hoiatas EMC
EMC 5.01>4.51
ELX 10.03>9.40
MCDT 5.58>4.40
BRCD 6.52>6.01
QLGC 24.60>22.48
NTAP 6.65>6.07 -
It was another good week for us bears, as it has been of late. The Dow Industrials closed at 7528, and has now taken back everything gained since October 1997. The blue-chip indexes have closed down six straight weeks and six straight months. How bad has it been? Over the past 3 years, on an annualized total return basis, the S&P 500 is down 12.89%, its lowest level since October 1933 (data from www.BiancoResearch.com). No one can deny that the market is oversold. But history shows that some of the steepest declines emanate from very oversold conditions. The worst thing that can beset us at this juncture is to become cavalier about the near-term downtrend. If you are not prudent with your positions you can wind up giving everything back in a bear market rally, one of which appears not too far off.
The main thesis that I glean listening to talking heads and reading the financial media is that the stock market is in the process of "testing" its July lows and after a bit more backing and filling near current levels, stocks should rally strongly into the new year. Anyone with an objective eye toward the market can certainly see why this scenario is attractive. After all, the major stock indexes are oversold in a month (Oct.) that often sees a significant low. Seasonal trends are about to turn positive and it's been all over the press that the third year of a president's term is never a down year (the last one occurred in 1939). So things should start looking up for beaten-down equity investors, right? Well, maybe, but I would not jump on the bullish bandwagon so fast.
Steven Hochberg, Elliott Wave International
