Börsipäev 5.detsember
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Indeksid alustasid heade uudiste mõjul päeva selges plussis - Euroopa Keskpank alandas intresse, Merck tõstis 2003.a. prognoose, töötu abiraha taotlejate arv tuli oodatus madalam.
Kuid turg vajus üsna kiiresti allapoole, mis vihjab sellele, et pullid on väga ettevaatlikud. Nõrkus heade uudiste peale pole kindlasti hea märk turu edasisele tervisele.
Intel annab teada oma kvartalikeskse kokkuvõtte pärast börside sulgemist, sellel ilmselt üsna oluline kaal. -
Hea ajastus,
11:37 ET AMZN Amazon.com hit by research note (22.55 -0.81)
Stock has been under pressure; we're hearing that there is a negative note out from a research firm called Horizon Research that questions AMZN's free cash flow in the most recent quarter. We have no information about Horizon and no details on this note. Also hearing more recently that a brokerage firm might be out in defense of AMZN.
sB -
Intel's Valuation Has Little Value
12/05/02 11:42 AM ET
I don't put a lot of weight on fundamental analysis in my trading but I do study the analyst reports from time to time just to confirm my suspicions that it is largely a waste of time. Gerard Klauer has a report out today on Intel (INTC:Nasdaq) in which it raises its target price to 28 from 22. How do they come up with this new target price?
The analyst estimates that Intel will earn 67 cents in 2003. The S&P 500 has a multiple of 19 for 2003 so if that is applied it produces a target price of $12.73. That is fairly simple but now here is the interesting part. The analyst feels that Intel should be given a "market premium" of 2.2 times the S&P. So, 2.2 times 12.73 produces his target price of $28.
Where does this premium of 2.2 times the S&P PE ratio come from? The only comment in the report is that the assumed premium is "below that of the previous two years and we believe it is reasonable."
Perhaps it's just me but I find the idea that Intel should be assigned a premium of 2.2 times the S&P 500 PE ratio to be just a tad arbitrary. Is Intel growing 2.2 times faster than the average stock in the S&P 500? No. Is Intel producing an unusually steady and predictable stream of earnings? Nope. Does Intel have some new innovation on the horizon that is likely to ramp up future business substantially? I don't think so.
I think the 2.2 is simply a function of the fact that this stock is an institutional favorite and because so many clients already own it, the analyst has to come up with something to justify why they should continue to hold it.
A lot of folks make the mistake of assuming that fundamental research has greater predictive value than technical analysis. This sort of analysis should help dissuade you of that misconception.
We have a pretty good downtrend in this market. Technology couldn't hold a bounce, retail reports were gloomy and banks didn't react to the ECB cuts. It's interesting how quickly the good news in the unemployment report and from AMD was dismissed by this market. As I've said a number of times recently, the reaction to news is a sign that the character of the market has been changing. -
Intel t6stis guidance'it ja aktsia k2is j2relturul 19.50USD tasemel. Inteli uudis vastas turuootustele ja oktoobri keskpaigast alates 60%-lise t6usu teinud aktsia p66rdus kasumiv6tmise tulemusena langusse
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Intel
12/05/02 04:51 PM ET
Before you get excited about Intel (INTC:Nasdaq), my best chip source suggests caution on the question of whether the company might have been stuffing product into Asia, "where there's no shortage of motherboards waiting around to be shipped." Could take its toll on Intel in the first quarter and beyond if demand doesn't pick up. Herb Greenberg
