Elcoteq - väike ja paindlik
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25.04 avaldab eestlastele tuttav elektroonikaallhanketööde pakkuja Elcoteq oma kvartalitulemused.
Aktsia on eelmise aasta põhjast üle kahe korra tõusnud, kuid võrreldes suuremate konkurentidega nagu Flextronics on ta endiselt odav. Küsimusi tekitavad Nokia teised allhankijad, kelle käibed on ootusi ületanud, kuid kasumid allapoole prognoose, st Nokia on jõupositsioonilt oma allhankijaid pitsitamas. Kas sama ka Elcoteqiga? Antud juhul julgeks kahelda. Nokia tootis esimses kvartalis 36.5 miljoni telefoni asemel 38 miljonit ning tootmismahtude ületamine tähendab kokkupanijale lisatööd, st ka paremaid tootmisvõimaluste ärakasutamisi ning seega suuremaid tulusid/kasumit.
Suureks küsimärgiks Hiinasse ostetud tehas, mis mõeldud eelkõige Nokia telefonide kokkupanekuks, andmed Nokia müügi kohta Hiinas aga väga lünklikud. -
Elcoteq usub, et võrguturg läheb kasvule:
Network markets turning to growth
Practically all investment banks and research companies believe the worst of the downturn in network markets is over. In fact many forecast a slight recovery at some point in 2003. Analysts base their forecasts on a number of factors:
1) The number of mobile phone users is growing. At the end of 2002 there were over 1.1 billion users, and this figure is expected to rise to over 1.3 billion during 2003. This will create an unavoidable need to install new mobile phone networks or components for them. That need will be most pressing in developing regions.
2) Data traffic is accelerating. The world's largest mobile phone operator, Vodafone, already derives 16 % of its net sales from data transfer, for example.
3) Quality of service is declining. Operators have reduced their network investments in recent years despite the steadily increasing number of users. This has resulted in clear overloading of networks in many large cities. According to some claims, only two out of every three phone calls in London reach their destination during peak hours, and in some areas of the USA even half of all SMS messages are undelivered because of network overloads. Lehman Brothers, for instance, regards this as a driving force for higher network investment: "The declining quality levels of European wireless networks cannot continue indefinitely. This may become a key driver for improved network spending". (Lehman Brothers, December 17, 2002).
4) Timing of new technologies and future generations. New technologies are on the way; the only uncertainty is when they will be introduced. UMTS, although widely talked about, will probably not make a breakthrough this year, but different parts of the world should have 3G networks in place by 2004. Vigorous growth is expected in WLANs (Wi-Fi) during 2003 and over the next few years.
5) Operators' financial standing. A prime cause of low network investment has been the weak financial position of many operators. Many of the companies that fell heavily into debt after bidding for UMTS licenses have recovered, however, and others expect to return to profit within a few years. -
Ei ole tähele pannud, kas elcoteq mingit kasumihoiatust käesoleva kvartali kohta on teinud? Tulemused peaksid tulema 8.august. Kas ka selle aktsia osas võib suuri liikumisi tulla? Tehniline vastupanu on vist kusagil 11.80 kandis.
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Kliki siia
selle lingi all olevale jutule pole midagi hetkel lisada, kui siis ainult see, et Nokia andis 3Q käibe ja kasumihoiatuse, mis põhjustas ka Elcoteqi languse.
