Black & Decker (BDK)
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Ilmselt on iga mees hoidnud käes 1910. aastal loodud Black and Deckeri (BDK) tööriistu. Nüüseks enam kui 100 riigis esindust omav firma on oma turu vaieldamatu liider, kasvades küll veidi aeglasemalt kui näiteks tehnoloogiasektori ettevõtted, kuid see-eest teenides stabiilselt kasvavas trendis kasumit.
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Leidsin sellise vana teema üles. Aktsiahind võrreldes tolle ajaga on tunduvalt kõrgemal, aga Barrons on peale arvestatavat võimsa käibega kukkumist viimastel kuudel asjale tähelepanu pööramas:
Barron's Onlne reports with its P/E multiple bouncing off five-year lows, new products, and strong cash flow funding a mammoth stock repurchase, Black & Decker (BDK) has room to move. "The valuation looks cheap and the free cash flow is strong," says John Hintz, manager of the Thrivent Mid-Cap Core Fund. "It looks like a decent risk reward." Higher prices and plans to launch a dozen new products should drive sales and strengthen margins hurt by rising commodity prices. A string of acquisitions since 2002 has boosted Black & Decker's cash flow, allowing the co to triple its dividend over the last three years and pay down debt. And in July, the board approved the repurchase of eight million shares of stock.Meanwhile, overseas sales, which make up one-third of Black & Decker's revenue, and rising commercial and industrial construction, should provide some insulation from falling housing sales. "Our tie to the U.S. housing market is not as great as investors might think," says Roger Young, a co spokesman. Profit margins should begin to rebound in Q4, the co says. Meanwhile, FCF could climb to $640 mln by next year, says Nishu Sood, an analyst with Deutsche Bank. "Essentially, the company has transformed itself into a low-cost competitor," wrote Deutsche Bank's Sood. "Considering its improved operating position and its continuing focus on brand development and product innovation, we think Black & Decker's outlook is brighter than some investors fear."
Hiljuti võtsid nad oma haardesse ka samas sektoris tegutseva Danaheri (DHR), tuues välja nii mõnegi hea mõttetera. Usun samuti, et ettevõtte kasv on aeglustumas ning marginaalid surve all:
Barron's reports Danaher (DHR) shares are afforded a premium to the broad market and to other well-run industrial conglomerates as the co has been successful at driving mid-teens annual earnings growth. However, a small but growing camp of doubters is beginning to circle the stock. A combination of valuation and a slowing industrial economy, the co's need for ever-bigger deals and a recent push outside its core areas to expensive medical-supply deals has prompted concern. 16 of the 20 analysts covering the co rate it a Buy, with one Sell. Christopher Laudani, of the research boutique Short Ideas, last week proposed betting against Danaher outright, based on a variety of concerns, with a downside target in the mid-$50s. He points out that operating margins have been pressured lately, and that management's guidance for 2006 earnings of $3.15 to $3.22 a share seems to imply a big improvement in its operating margin to 18.4% from around 16% last quarter. There's no seasonal pattern of large late-year margin gains. Laudani also flags a decline in the ratio of operating FCF to net income this year, while accounts receivable-to-inventory (adjusted for acquisitions) has risen briskly. This can indicate a co is stretching to make its earnings targets. The $2.2 bln acquisition this year of Sybron Dental also is worth some scrutiny. While the dental market is attractive, the deal was pricey -- it won't add to earnings until next year -- and Sybron wasn't a laggard with lots of room for quick operating improvement. More broadly, cash-rich competitors and private-equity buyers are likely to bid up the value of future deals for Danaher and everyone else. An annual increase in insider selling in April and May at prices in the mid-$60s -- including 257,000 shares sold by chief executive Lawrence Culp -- is also a modest net negative.
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Toon siinkohal välja huvitava seaduspära, mis ilmnes Black & Decker'i aktsialiikumise kõrvutamisel Ameerika Ühendriikide SKP-ga - aktsiahinna kasv/langus on ajalooliselt üldjoontes matkinud päris hästi Ameerika Ühendriikide SKP kasvu kiirenemist/aeglustumist. Kusjuures aktsiahind on reeglina SKP liikumist isegi veidi ennetanud. Siiski, päris üks-ühele järeldusi siit teha ei tohiks... -
Täna tõmbab Citigroup alla DHR reitingu, jättes hinnasihi muutmata.
➤ We are downgrading Danaher to Hold from Buy on price. Our 2006-2008
estimates and $75 target are unchanged.
➤ The stock is up over 40% since 4/05, while our 2007 estimate is only 10%
higher over the same time frame. YTD DHR is up 31% versus our group up
15% and the S&P 500 up 12%. DHR is trading at an 18% premium to the S&P
500 on operating earnings versus a 10 year average premium of 4%.
➤ Outlook for 2007 should be solid and DHR could prove a good place to be in a
choppy economic environment. However, strong stock performance likely
reflects investor discounting of that phenomenon. Long-term investors should
continue holding the stock, but new money should wait for a better entry point.
➤ One concern is intensifying strategic and private equity competition for deals.
We expect DHR to remain disciplined, but the margin of error is narrowing
given richer valuations. -
Danaher (DHR) kinnitab oma teise kvartali prognoosi kasumi osas, milleks on $0.88-0.93 versus $0.93 konsensus. 2007. aasta kasumiprognoos on $3.70-3.80 versus $3.77 Reutersi konsensus. Kuid orgaaniline kasv kõigest 3.5% - aktsia on viimasel ajal vastavalt ka käitunud, eriti kui kõrvutada siia ka GE 8-protsendiline orgaaniline kasv.
