Börsipäev 1- 3. oktoober
Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse
-
Mõned teemad tänaseks päevaks:
- Office Depot (ODP) ei vaja vist erilist tutvustamist LHV klientide jaoks. Aktsiad kukkusid päris rängalt peale seda kui firma teatas, et dollari nõrgenemine vähendab selle kvartali kasumit mõne sendi võrra. Lisaks sellele teatas mõne nädala eest merchandising juht, et lahkub. Tegemist oli päris olulise inimesega poodide uuendamise seisukohalt. Siiski, kaubeldes 11-12x järgmise aasta kasumit aktsia kohta (2003E eps $1.04, 2004E eps $1.20) tunduvad need aktsiad jällegi päris odavatena.
- Eile õhtul teatasid Roche, Genentech (DNA) ning OSI Pharma (OSIP), et nende Tarceva nimeline kopsuvähki raviv ravimikandidaat ei näidanud piisavalt häid tulemusi 3 faasi katsetes. Tegemist oli üpris oodatud uudisega, kuid täna hommikul on kõik mainitud aktsiad eelturul miinuses. Neid aktsiaid võib täna vaadelda kui head indikaatorit turu tervise kohta. Vähemalt hommikul leidus ka juba ostjaid, kes 5-7% kukkumist ostma tulid.- Cirrus Logic (CRUS) teatas, et selle kvartali käive tuleb $50 kandis vs. varasema $45-50 mln prognoosid. CRUS on eelturul uudise peale üle 10% plussis. Sellest hoolimata avaneb aktsia ilmselt trendijoone alla. Ma usun, et oleme praegu faasis, kus häid uudiseid kasutatakse kasumivõtmiseks. Sama võib juhtuda ka CRUS-i puhul.
- Schering-Plough (SGP) teatas, et juurdlus seoses firm Puerto Rico tootmisüksusega on läbi. Tegemist on päris hea uudisega ning aktsiad on selle peale eelturul isegi korra $16 alla hüpanud. Minu vaated farmaatsiale üldiselt pole muutunud. Seda olenemata viimase nädala kukkumisest.
- Gary B. Smith
- RevShark:
After a brief bounce on Monday, the sellers returned and pushed the market back down below key technical levels on increased volume. The Wall Street terminology for such action is "distribution." When the market sells off on an increase in volume, it is a sign that bigger investors are "distributing" their positions to the broader market.
Profit-taking can be very healthy when it occurs on light volume. When that happens, it usually means that institutions are standing firm as stocks move from weak and marginal investors into the hands of stronger and more bullish investors. When profit-taking occurs on increased volume, it is a sign that institutions are locking in profits and becoming more skeptical about the overall market.
When there is a series of distribution days like we have seen lately, it demonstrates a change in character of the market. Throughout the rally since March, we had very few days of distribution. We pulled back on lighter volume and rallied on increased volume. That is textbook bullish action. During the month of September, we have seen that tendency reverse. Volume is picking up on pullbacks and decreasing on rallies.
The bottom line is that the dominant trend is now down, and we can't expect to be quickly and easily bailed out by the dip-buyers who were so quick to show up as we rallied during the summer.
End-of-the-quarter portfolio adjustment by big funds probably distorted market action over the last couple days. Now that we have concluded those games, we will be able to see more clearly now how much pressure there is to protect some of the big profits many folks have on the books. This is the first time since this rally began back in March that market participants have seen their profits erode to a great degree.
The quandary now is whether investors are confident enough about this market to let this weakness play out, or will they lock in profits by selling if the market continues to struggle?
The bullish optimists shrug off this action as simple seasonal weakness that will set us up very nicely for an end-of-the-year rally. We had a big rally since March, and after a healthy correction in September and October, we will be in perfect position for a strong finish. That sounds very nice and neat as well as logical, but can it really be that simple?
If you do believe that scenario is likely, then you have to ask yourself whether you sell now and try to buy back at lower prices, or do you hang on and stay confident that the end-of-the-year rally will play out as hoped?
My methodology is to not worry too much about what may or may not happen a month or two from now but to respect the current action. The market is under some substantial pressure, and my No. 1 priority is to protect my capital. If you keep that capital safe and stay prepared, you'll be able to profit nicely if and when the market turns back up again. If the market continues to stay weak, the losses can be quite big and will require much effort to recover. It is easier to stay ahead of the market if you don't have to make up big losses.
We have a bit of a bounce shaping up in the early going. There are positive comments about the health of semiconductors once again. Overseas markets are attempting to stabilize, and currency markets are doing little.
The poor economic reports yesterday helped embolden the bears. We have more reports due out at 10 a.m. EDT, most notably the ISM data. Expectations have declined a bit after yesterday, but the bulls badly need a reversal of the trend of poor economic reports.
sB -
NB! Kaks uut Kiiret Ideed just avaldatud LHV Pro all.
-
Mõned teemad tänaseks päevaks:
- Banc of America alustab Wireless Eq. sektori katmist järgmiste reitingutega: Nokia (NOK), OSTA $20 hinnasiht; Qualcomm (QCOM), OSTA $50 hinnasiht; Motorola (MOT), Neutraalne $11 hinnasiht; UTStarcom (UTSI), OSTA $45 hinnasiht.
Nokia kohta kommentaariks ütlesin analüütikud et firma peaks suutma turuosa veelgi võita ning ka marginaalid peaksid paranema. $20 hinnasiht eeldab, et aktsiad kauplevad 22 PE juures 2004. aasta kasumiprognoosile toetudes.
- Lisaks sellele langetab BofA nii Office Depot (ODP) kui ka konkurendi Staplesi (SPLS) reitingut Osta pealt Neutraalse peale. SPLS-i puhul puhtalt valuatsiooni pärast. ODP puhul aga probleemide pärast seoses operatsioonidega. Kuigi ODP aktsiad on analüütikute sõnul päris odavad, teeb ettevaatlikuks ees olevate ülesannete mitmekesisus: a) turuosa vs SPLS b) Euroopa operatsioonid c) Integreerida Viking ülejäänud firmaga.
Ise usun, et $13 kandist ODP ostmine võib paari aasta perspektiivis vägagi arukas otsusolla.
- Vitesse (VTSS) on vaikselt allapoole liikunud ning sama trend võib veelgi jätkuda. See $1.35 mld turuväärtusega ettevõtmine toodab prognooside kohaselt ca $4 mln kasumit järgmisel aastal! PE 325. Sellel aastal kaotatakse veel $40 mln. Väga tihedad stopid.
- Thomas Weisel alandab Nvidia (NVDA) 2004/2005 aasta prognoose allapoole üldist konsensust. Põhjustena tuuakse välja: a) äri pole paranenud alates sellest ajast kui firma reitingut alandati Augustis. b) konkurents ATI-ga (ATYT) c) Xbox hakkab vaikselt hääbuma d) kasvavad varud (srt NVDA)
- BLUD Immucor cut to Neutral from Outperform at Baird -- valuation .
- Gary B. Smith
- RevShark
Yesterday's big, broad jump on light volume has traders scratching their heads and wondering if they can trust this market to follow through. The action yesterday differed quite a bit from much of the rally we saw this summer. The biggest movers were things such as housing, which had been lagging for some time.
There was a lot of speculation that the action yesterday was simply portfolio adjustments, program trading and macro shuffling rather than aggressive buying by underinvested bulls. The lighter volume lends some support to that argument, but the real test will be whether the market can follow through to the upside.
The market has suffered some nasty technical hits over the last week or so, and we need to respect that until we have a series of positive days. The action yesterday was a start, but it isn't sufficient enough for us to have confidence that the correction is over.
Overseas markets are reacting favorably to yesterday's strength in the U.S. Futures are mixed, with technology stocks acting best this morning. We have the weekly unemployment data coming up shortly. Expectations are for a reading of 395,000 new claims.
The market has had a pattern of down, up, down, up over the last four sessions, which is pretty much the definition of a trading range. The likelihood is that this pattern continues and that we stay choppy.
I did not chase the strength yesterday and am sitting in a lot of cash. I would have been happy to do some buying, but I simply could not find the sort of action that I prefer. I'm not too concerned about being undereinvested at this point. I feel comfortable there will be better buying opportunities in the days and weeks ahead.
Futuurid; Naz 0.41% Dow 0.05%sB
-
Venemaa RTS indeks ületas 600 punkti taseme!
-
Mõned teemad tänaseks päevaks:
- Schering-Plough (SGP) on ennast viimastel päevadel päris tugevast küljest näidanud. Üheks põhjuseks kindlasti kolmapäeva hommikul tulnud uudis selle kohta, et firma Puerto Ricos asuvate tootmisüksuste uurimine lõpetatakse. Analütikud kommenteerisid Reutersi vahendusel asja nii:"Any good news for Schering-Plough is major news at this point," said analyst Robert Hazlett of SunTrust Robinson Humphrey. "But there are certainly a number of things for
senior management to work on."Tundub, et firma uus juht Fred Hassan on regulatoorseid keerdsõlmi lahti harutamas.
- Suurim CRM (Customer Relation Management) arendaja Siebel (SEBL) andis eile teada oma kolmanda kvartali prognoosid. Kasumit tuleb 3 senti aktsia kohta, mis oli prognoosidega kooskõlas. Käibeprognoos jäi aga ootustest allapoole olles $320-322 mln vs $330 mln konsensust. Reaktsioon? Hetkeks alla ning siis 5% ülespoole. Tundub, et oodati halvemat. Põhjenduseks toodi ka litsentside parem müük, kuid mulle tundub et ka seal jäädiu tegelikult ametlikule konsensusnumbrile alla. Konkurent Euroopas, SAP AG (SAP) oli täna hommikul 4.5% pulssis.
First Albany tõstab SEBL-i reitingu täna hommikul OSTA peale varasema Neutraalse pealt. Sama teeb ka Smith Barney. Räägib vist nii mõndagi turust.
- Business Weeki aktsiad on täna SONTC, L ning BER. Lähemalt juba esmaspäeval.
- Hommikul oli märgata keskmisest suuremat ostuhuvi. Seda eriti tehnoloogias.
- Tellabs (TLAB) teatas, et koondab veel 370 inimest oma ridadest. Aktsia hind ei reageeri antud uudisele praktiliselt üldse.
- Lehman prognoosib, et Nasdaq 100 indeksi koosseisu arvatakse sellel aastal järgmised aktsiad: SNDK, MRVL, GRMN, CECO, LVLT, ATYT, ja CELG. Lahkujad: ERICY, ICOS, ADCT, HGSI, RFMD, BRCD, and BGEN.
- Nintendo kavatseb oma GameCube'i hinda Euroopas olulisem määral alandada. See peaks konkurentsi lisama Xboxile (MSFT/NVDA/FLEX jt).
- unemployment rate 6.1% vs 6.2% consensus
- nonfarm payrolls +57k vs -25k consensus- average hourly earnings -0.1 vs +0.2% consensus
- Tulemus: QQQ +1.9-2% eelturul.
- Ma usun, et tänane statistika lõi mänguplaani sassi paljudel karudel. Oodati suhteliselt halvemaid numbreid, et need alustaksid korrektsiooni järgmist faasi.
- Bernstein väljas neg. maiguga analüüsiga Inteli (INTC) marginaalide teemal. Nimelt ei usu analüütikud, et INTC võiks saavutada eelmise tsükli "kõrguseid" numbreid.
- Gary B. Smith
- RevShark
After two days of rallying on decreasing volume, all eyes are focused on the unemployment data due out at 8:30 a.m. EDT. Nonfarm payrolls are expected to fall by 40,000, the unemployment rate is expected to tick up to 6.2% and the average work week is expected to be 33.7 hours.
This report seems to be attracting an usually high level of interest this morning. As we saw yesterday, market participants were acting a little lost and are probably anxious to focus on something to help them establish some direction. The employment report is a good proxy for all the angst that investors have over the glacial-like economic recovery. Lagging job growth has reinforced the notion that the economic recovery isn't what it should be. In any event the employment numbers are likely to establish market direction this morning.
The action of the market the past two days has been rather unusual. On Wednesday we rallied big on hugely positive breadth but volume declined over the prior day. Yesterday volume slowed even further and the market simply sat there most of the day before upticking a bit into the close.
To summarize the technical picture, we had a nasty breakdown below key support levels last week. There was a failed bounce on Monday and then lighter-volume bounces the last couple of days. Putting aside your biases and being purely objective, which way should we expect this market to move?
On a purely technical basis we should roll back over to the downside and retest the recent lows. The key problem for the bulls is that the bounce simply has not had enough intensity to re-establish good upside momentum. If the bounce had come on bigger volume we could feel much more secure about the prospect of buyers returning with vigor to keep the bounce going and restore the technical picture.
Of course, as we have seen several times since the rally began back in March it is possible for the market to turn back on lower volume and drive the technicians nuts but that isn't the way to bet.
In the early going we have some optimism about the jobs data. Overseas markets are acting well, analysts are offering up some positives on individual stocks and the bulls are anxious to keep this bounce going.
The trading the last couple of days has been difficult and we continue to have a rather thin edge. The jobs report is likely to keep things volatile so proceed with caution.
Futuurid: Naz 1.91% SP 1.31% -
Nokia pullid!
Müüsin maha, iga kord on ta tõusnud peale seda. -
ma ka müüsin enne NOK maha, nii et nüüd peaks tõusu takistanud asjaolud likvideeritud olema:)
-
Master.
Motorola blokeeris NOK korrektsiooni ja veab teda ülesse!
