Börsipäev 10 -11. november
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LHV Pro all on sB sulest lugu USA turgude nägemusest lähiajal.
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Raadio2 "Võrgutaja"-st räägiti midagi iTune laulude allatõmbamise hinnast . Tuleb välja, et Apple ei saa selle pealt tuhkagi, kõik see 0,99 dollarit loo peale läheb maksudeks. Kas mitte kevadel Apple hind selle iTune peale ei tõusnud. Nüüd peaks hoopis kukkuma või kuidas?
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Mõned teemad tänaseks päevaks:
- JP Morgani analüütikud tõstavad täna hommikul Inteli (INTC) reitingu Neutraalse pealt Overweight peale. Analüütikute sõnul näitavad märgid, et neljas kvartal võib tulla oodatust parem ning sama käib ka järgmise aasta alguse kohta. Kui sinna otsa lisada täna hommikune pos. maiguga pooljuhtide sektori kommentaar Merrill Lynchilt, siis võib sektor vähemalt päeva alguses veidi jõudu näidata.
- Morgan Stanley alandab Sycamore Networksi (SCMR) reitingu Underweight peale varasema Equal-Weight pealt. Nende arvates võiksid need aktsiad maksta maksimaalselt $5 tükist. Samas tõstetakse Tellabs (TLAB) Equal-Weight peale varasema Underweight pealt. Võimalikuks hinnasihiks $9. Vaadates TLAB-i graafikut, tundub mulle, et aktsia võib lähemate nädalate jooksul vastupanusid rünnata.
- Barronsi esikaanel seisab täna IBM (IBM). Analüütikute arvates on IBM 2004. aasta oodatava IT-kulutuste kasvu üks peamisi kasusaajaid. Siiski pole firma aktsiad viimase aasta jooksul ülejäänud tehnoloogiaga kaasa tõusnud, pakkudes praegustele ostjatele hea võimaluse odavalt sisse saada. Hinnasihiks pakutakse $100.
- Lehman tõstab täna hommikul S&P 500 konsolideeritud kasumiprognoose:
2003 EPS $54.75 (enne $53.25)
2004 EPS $60.00 (enne $58.25)12 kuu hinnasihiks 1150 (enne 1100), mis annab 2004E P/E suhteks ca 19x.
- SG Coweni analüütikud alandavad täna hommikul sat-raadio play Sirius Satellite (SIRI) reitingu Market Perform peale varasema Outperform pealt. Põhjuseks firma võimetus konkurendi XM Satellite (XMSR)-ga konkureerida. Neljandas kvartalis peaks XMSR saama endale 360K lisaklienti ning SIRI vaid 60K.
- Adobe Systems (ADBE) on täna hommikul lühikeste positsioonide tule all. JP Morgani analüütikud alandasid firma reitingu Underweight peale varasema Overweight pealt (suur kukkumine). Põhjuseks loomulikult valuatsioon.
Lisaks sellele on täna Barronsis neg. maiguga artikkel, kus tuuakse välja firma suur optsioonikoormus. 2002 aastal oli firma tegevuskasum $0.95 aktsia kohta, kuid kui sealt maha arvestada optsioonikulu, siis jääks järgi vaid $0.19 aktsia kohta. Intervjueeritav Smith Barney analüütik kinnitab oma Müü reitingut ning $36 hinnasihti.
- Imax (IMAX) on täna hommikul 7-8% miinuses kuna firma tulemused ning prognoosid ei vastanud turu ootustele.
- Oleks oodanud tänaselt eelturult veidi suuremat positiivsust. Kas kõik ootavad turu avanemist, et siis ostma hakata? Ajuti oli näha üksikuid suuri müüjaid aktsiates, mis mingil põhjusel täna hommikul üles aetud. long this short that.
- Gary B. Smith
- ReVshark:
The reluctance of people to change their minds is one of the reasons markets tend to move up or down much further than seems reasonable. Once folks are emotionally and financially invested in a certain viewpoint their tendency is to focus only on those facts that support their thinking and dismiss the opposing arguments.
Momentum is a primary function of people sticking to their convictions and steadily wearing out the folks on the other side until they throw in the towel and join them. In order to keep climbing, either the entrenched bulls must have more buying power or there must be enough skeptics waiting to be converted. When the bulls run out of buying power or when the majority of skeptics have been converted, the market will tend to roll over because there is no buying power left to keep driving it higher.
Are we at that point now? Is everyone so confidently bullish and fully invested that there is insufficient cash out there to keep the market moving up? That is the million-dollar question and unfortunately it isn't something that can be readily measured. The bulls will tell you that there is $2 trillion of cash in money market accounts that can drive this market higher but the bulls will point to the Investors Intelligence survey, which has had better than 2-to-1 bulls to bears for months now.
We can go back and forth with various arguments but it always boils down to the unpredicatability of human emotions. Who would have guessed that the market would fly to such extreme highs back in the bubble days or hit such lows just last year? Until human emotions can be accurately quantified the market will always hold great uncertainty.
The best thing the savvy market participant can do is simply watch how investors act. Despite compelling arguments from the bears about how expensive this market is and how all of the good news has already been priced in, there are few signs we are rolling over. Last week we struggled to move higher on a steady stream of good news, but we didn't fall apart either. That may very well occur this week but for now the bulls are holding steady.The inertia on the good news last week has increased the chatter among the bears looking for this market to begin to stall. Their primary argument is that all possible positives are now being priced into this market: a growing economy, better job creation and a steady interest rate environment. The bulls are extremely confident and there simply is nowhere to go but down. The bulls have had psychology working for them. People have been making money in the market again and their friends and neighbors want to join in. As we saw back in 2000 that sort of momentum can't last forever but it can last longer than many people think possible.
Technically the indices are showing few signs of breakdown. The biggest problem is simply that they are extended. The market could pull back and do nothing for quite some time before it would result in any significant technical damage.
Unlike every Monday over the past six or so weeks we aren't seeing wild optimism. Futures are starting to turn positive now but early indications aren't showing any great vigor despite upgrades of Intel and Applied Materials. Overseas markets are fairly lackluster. Gold and oil are up and the dollar is down.
It looks like a pretty good battle is shaping up between profit-takers and committed bulls. The dip buyers have been the key to this levitating market and we will have to watch very closely for signs of their continued health. Careful stock picking is going to be even more important this week than it was last. The likelihood is that the bulls are going to be increasingly selective with their buying.
It certainly feels like Monday morning. Shake off the weekend and be ready to go to work.
Futuurid: Naz 0.10% SP 0.03%
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Mõned teemad tänaseks päevaks:
- Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX) tegi eilsel järelturul läbi päris suure kukkumise ($12.65 sulgumise pealt $9 peale) kui firma teatas oma tulemustejärgsel pressikonverentsil, et Pralnacasan (reumaatiline artriit), nende peamine ravimikandidaat ei näidanud piisavalt häid tulemusi II faasi katsetes. Nüüd on vaja teha uus katse, mis isegi õnnestumise puhul tähendab vähemalt 1-aastast liseviivitust.
Täna on mitmed analüütikud (Merrill, JP Morgan, Goldman) firma aktsiate reitinguid alandamas. Eilne kukkumine viis VRTX-i aktsiad viimase 3 aasta madalamate tasemete juurde, mis viimasel ajal on üpris harv nähtus. Lisaks sellele on firmal veel mitu huvitavat ravimikandidaati. Ma usun, et põhjapüüdjad on varsti kohal.
- Wall Street Journal kirjutab, et Oracle (ORCL) on valmis oma Peoplesofti (PSFT)
ülevõtmispakkumise tagasi tõmbama, kuna viimane pakub klientidele tehingu toimumise korral võimalust oma ostude eest mitmekordselt raha tagasi saada.- Bear Stearns tõstab täna hommikul Knight Trading Group (NITE)-i reitingu Peer Perform peale varasema Underperform pealt. Tegemist on firmaga, mis saab ilmselt kõige otsesemalt kasu kauplemisaktiivsuse tõusust. NITE on turutegija.
- RSA Security (RSAS) avaldas täna hommikul väga ulja pealkirjaga pressiteate kus seisis: "RSA Security Expects To Meet High End of its Fourth Quarter Financial Guidance". Pressiteatest tuleb aga välja, et firma loodab neljandas kvartalis teenida 4-7 senti puhaskasumit aktsia kohta, analüütikute konsensuse olles 7 sendi peal. Käibeks prognoosib firma $63-68 mln vs analüütikute $66.8 mln konsensust.
Kardan, et turuosalised firma juhtkonna optimismi ei jaga ning aktsia saab täna olema kukkujate nimistus. Netegrity (NETE) on peamine konkurent ning võib kaasa liikuda.
- Tenet Healthcare (THC) avaldas eile õhtul oma Q3 tulemused. Täna hommikul tuleb ka kauaoodatud pressikonverents.
- Jaapani Nikkei Stock Average kukkus täna öösel 2.8%. Ühtegi uudist selle kukkumise taga ei olnud.
- Millise ülemaailmse lõbustusasutuse üks suuromanikke on Bill Gates? (Microsofti mitte pakkuda)
- Eelturg peab päris hästi vastu. Oleks oodanud suuremat kukkumist peale öösel Jaapanis toimunut. Ilmselt ootab turg Applied Materialsi (AMAT) homseid tulemusi ning prognoose. Paljud turuosalised on veendunud, et AMAT-i tulemused ning prognoosid tulevad päris head.
- Gary B. Smith
- ReVShark:
The bulls suffered some pain yesterday but not enough to cause any great panic and convert them into bears. We sold off steadily and broadly but volume was light and the selling fairly orderly. There were few indications market participants were worried about anything more than a healthy consolidation of recent gains.
The question we confront this morning is how much further will this pullback run. The hallmark of this big rally that began back in March is how quickly, consistently and powerfully the market has bounced back from every pullback. Each time the uptrend line had been breached and it looked like we were in technical trouble, we bounced back in a V-shaped fashion and hit new highs. It has happened in May, July, August and October.
Is it different this time? Will this be the pullback that finally cracks the uptrend and leads to some sustained downside? It is too early to tell right now. One day of weak action on mediocre volume isn't sufficient evidence on which to declare the death of the bull market.
The biggest negative for the bulls right now is that there is a good distance to fall before we run into some technical support. For the Nasdaq, the 50-day moving average at around 1900 looks like the first line in the sand. The S&P 500 is much closer to its support level at around 1040. The DJIA has some minor support at 9700 and then more substantial support around its 50-day simple moving average of 9600-9619.
The key sector to keep an eye on right now is the semiconductors. The SOX was the downside leader yesterday on fairly heavy volume despite an upgrade of Intel (INTC:Nasdaq). There is some support at the 500 level and then the 475-485 area. This group has been a leader and if it struggles the momentum buyers will stay cautious. It is tough to be aggressively speculative when technology stocks are not acting well.
I've been somewhat casual about the downside potential of this market. There is no question that there was some pretty weak action yesterday. When combined with the fact that we are somewhat extended and have little nearby support, we definitely have to be cautious at this juncture. However, I continue to find interesting small-cap stocks to trade on the long side. The ones that are working best have good Canslim-type credentials. (Canslim is the stock picking methodology developed by William J. O'Neil, the publisher of Investors Business Daily that considers a number of fundamanetal factors in addition to technical patterns.) They have strong EPS and revenue growth and are just being discovered. Many of these are fairly thin but small companies that are able to capitalize on an economic turn will be the big winners in the net year or so.
The conventional wisdom is that small-cap stocks are the biggest beneficiaries of the early stages of an economic turn. Lots of folks will argue the point of whether we really are in the early stages of a sustained economic recovery and we know it until after the fact. However, there are some smaller stocks with the potential of stellar year-over-year increases that are attracting Canslim-inclined investors.
Early indications this morning are shaky and it looks like we will have some follow-through to yesterday's weak action. The economic calendar is quiet until later in the week and there are no major earnings reports until tomorrow when Applied Materials (AMAT:Nasdaq) reports.
It is Veterans Day, which means the bond market and banks are closed and that should slow trading. When volume is light the market is pushed around more easily and we can see some quick spikes and fast drops. Be careful out there. It is likely to be a tricky day for trading.
Futuurid; Naz -0.32% SP-0.22%
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six flags (pks)
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"Only few have made money betting against Gates"
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Kaabel maas?
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hmm?
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No lihtsalt portfellis olevate VP-de hinnad on väga "ajakohased" - eilne closing nimelt. Või on teil hinnad lihtsalt 3-tunnise viivitusega ;P?
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need on ju hoopis homsed hinnad:)
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USAs on panga püha, see tekitas LHV systeemis väikese segaduse :)
asjaga tegeletakse.
