Börsipäev 2-3. detsember
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Mõned teemad tänaseks päevaks:
- JP Morgan alustab Apple Computeri (AAPL) aktsiate katmist Neutraalse reitinguga. Nupukese pealkirjaks "Innovation Has No Bounds, But Valuation Does." JP analüütikud nendivad, et kuidi firma on suutnud turule tuua uusi vägevaid tooteid (iPod jne), siis praegused aktsia hinna tasemed diskonteerivad seda juba sisse. Firmal 12 dollarit raha aktsia kohta ning see on ka firma kõige suuremaks tuluallikaks.
- Tehnoloogiatoodete distribuutor Ingram Micro (IM) kinnitab täna hommikul oma Q4 prognoose. Mäletatavasti kinnitas oma prognoose ka eelmise nädala keskel suurem konkurent Tech Data (TECD). Need firmad on tehnoloogia pakkumise/nõudluse üheks parimaks indikaatoriks.
- Võrguseadmete tootja 3Com (COMS) on täna hommikul 5% plussis, kuna maailma teiseks suurim IT-teenuste firma EDS (EDS) teatas, et hakkab COMS-i seadmete edasimüüjaks. See on üpris märkimisväärne võit 3Com-i jaoks.
- Euroopa suurim pooljuhtide tootmiseks vajaminevate seadmete valmistaja ASML Holding (ASML) teatas, et 31. detsembri seisuga on tellimuste hulk tõenäoliselt prognoositust suurem. Kui juba ASML, mis on viimaste aastate üks kroonilisemaid kasumihoiatuste andjaid, räägib et asjad on paranemas, siis asjad on tõepoolest paranemas. Aga ASML on ka aktsia, mida tuleb osta kasumihoiatuste peale ning müüa kui firma räägib sellest kui hästi äri läheb.
- Tänahommikused kõrgelennulised biotech aktsiad on:
Thermagenesis (KOOL) - SunTrust tuli välja analüüsiga, milles kutsub pisikest tüvirakkudega seotud uurimistööd tegevat firmat turu poolt veel vähetuntuks. Nende arvates tuleb firma järgmise 18 kuu jooksul välja 4 uue tootega, mis peaksid ka investorite tähelepanu köitma.
Pharmacyclics (PCYC) - sai USA ravimiameti käest oma peamisele vähiravimile fast-track staatuse, mis tähedab, et ravim vaadatakse üle kiirkorras. Turule peaks see jõudma siiski alles 2006/2007 aastal.
- Vähemalt kolm 1. järgu maaklerfirmat on täna hommikul Inteli (INTC) neljanda kvartali käibe-ja kasumiprognoose tõstnud. Mäletatavasti on firmal neljapäeva õhtul kvartali vahearuanne plaanis.
- Warnaco (WRNC) on põhjast päris toreda põrke teinud, kuid tundub, et eile leiti ka esimene vastupanutase. Käive oli päris suur, kuid liikumist praktiliselt ei olnud. See näitab müügihuvi. Ma usun, et väike korrektsioon on varsti toimumas. See on siiski väga tervitatavaks nähtuseks, kuna lubab seda huvitavat firmat veel odavalt osta. Kindlasti olen oma positsioonile lisamas $14-15 vahel. Aasta-poolteise pärast olen nõus need loovutama ostjatele hinnaga $20-22 tükist:
- FAO Inc (FAOO) halted. news pending. uhoh.
- Karu või Pull? Pigem karu täna.
- Gary B. Smith:
- ReVshark:
The well-prepared bull who had been ready, willing and able to act has been presented with some outstanding opportunities to make money recently. The key has been to not sit by idly while the indices break to new highs, but to seize the opportunities and take advantage when they exist.
After hearing all of the arguments from the intellectual bears about why this market is doomed, it can be extremely easy to temper your aggressiveness and be cautious. The bears are probably right about the market being expensive and extended. However, when opportunities to make money are appearing like they are now, the best course of action is to act boldly and decisively and not fight the trend.
There are times when it pays to proceed tentatively and with extreme caution, but there are other times when you need to be aggressive and to take advantage of the opportunities. For a small-cap momentum trader like myself, the recent action has offered some of the best trading since the bubble days of 2000. I know it will not last forever; it will end badly at some point and many folks will be burned when it does. The bears will say, "I told you so," and their fears and worries will prove correct.
But for now the bears are wrong.
The anticipation of doom will rob you of opportunities. Yes, all good things come to an end, but that doesn't mean that you should handcuff yourself in anticipation of that inevitability. If you see an opportunity on your screen, take advantage of it. The little bear that is sitting on your left shoulder whispering in your ear about the foolhardy risks you are taking should be ignored until he can show you some solid proof that his concerns are actually producing poor technical action in the market.
The biggest mistake most investors make is to obsess over what might happen. We worry about a sudden market crash or a terrorist act or the possibility that the guy who has been bearish for the last five years may suddenly prove to be correct, and we ignore the good charts that are right in front of us.
Focus on what is happening right now and if things start to turn bad, then act. But for now, seize the day. Take advantage of the opportunities that are on your screen as the market breaks to new highs in this seasonally strongest time of the year. There will be plenty of time to worry about the negatives when they are reflected in the market action. Right now the bulls have the ball and are racking up points.
In the early going we have fairly flat to slightly negative action. Overseas markets are mixed. The dollar is stable and gold is down slightly. The economic calendar is fairly quiet with just auto and truck sales on the agenda.
Reuters is reporting that the No. 2 wanted man in Iraq has been either killed or captured. We have not had any "Saddam is captured" rumors for a while but this may serve as an impetus. Don't be surprised if talk about Saddam's fate pops up during a market pullback.
One favorable development yesterday for speculative traders was that the biotech HOLDR (BBH:AMEX) moved back up over its 50-day moving average for the first time since mid-October. I'll be watching this group carefully for follow through. If the biotechs attract some buying, that will bode well for continued momentum in the smaller-cap plays.
Futuurid: Naz-0.24% SP-0.23%sB
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TOKYO, Dec 2 - Bridgestone Corp Japan's biggest tyre maker, said on Tuesday it would enter the semiconductor wafer business and start rolling out sample products in the second half of 2004.
Varsti hakkab vist Coca Cola ka pooljuhtide sektoris tegusid tegema. Näitab nii mõndagi asja olemuse kohta.
sB -
Mis HLYW-ga lahti on et -9% ?
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ootused ei vastanud kõrgetele lootustele...
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soodsalt saab praegu HLYW
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ise panin ka hetkel WRNC kinni, norm tootlus nädala kohta: ost 13.55 müük 15.65. kadedatele rahustuseks: tegu oli päris tagasihoidliku kogusega
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minuarust on selle WRNC-ga veel aega küll. :)
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võimalik, aga viimasel ajal olen mitu korda liig ahne olnud... usun, et saan selle peagi 14-14.2-ga tagasi osta:)
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Mõned teemad tänaseks päevaks:
- UBS Warburg tõstab täna hommikul maailma suurima kummitootja Goodyear Tire (GT) reitingu Reduce (Vähenda) pealt Neutraalse peale. Analüütikute arvates on praegused kapitaliturud väga abivalmis ning see peaks lubama GT-l veel selle aasta jooksul emiteerida kuni $1 miljardi väärtuses võlakirju. See peaks analüütikute sõnul firma eluiga pikendama vähemalt 3 aasta võrra, mis omakorda lisab aktsiatele $3-5 eest tõusupotentsiaali. Hinnasihiks saab varasema $3.50 asemel $7.50.
- Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) teatas, et avab 2004. aasta esimeses kvartalis oma online-muusikapoe. Konkurents selles vallas kasvab väga kiiresti. Huvitavaks on firma soov leida endale partner olemasolevate sektori tegijate seast. Roxio (ROXI), mis viimasel ajal konkurentsi tugevnemise tõttu tugeva surve all on olnud võib tõusta radarile võimaliku kandidaadina.
- Motorola (MOT) kinnitab täna hommikul oma Q4 käibe-ja kasumiprognoose.
- Fairchild Semi (FCS) tõstab täna hommikul Q4 käibeprognoose. Varasema 6-8% kasvu (q/q) asemel prognoosib firma 8-10% käibekasvu. Raske öelda, kui suurt kaalu see uudis omab, kuid igaks juhuks tasub silmas pidada ka konkurentide ONNN ning IRF käitumist.
- USA üks suurimaid ravimitootjaid Merck (MRK) prognoosib täna hommikul oma 2004. aasta kasumiks aktsia kohta $3.11 - $3.17. Analüütikute konsensus seisab $3.18 juures. MRK on viimasel ajal tugeva müügisurve all olnud ning praegused uudised võivad tekitada põrke.
- UBS Warburg tõstab täna hommikul ka Oracle (ORCL) ning Peoplesofti (PSFT) reitinguid varasema Neutraalse peale Osta peale. Firmade tulemused peaksid analüütikute arvates tulema paremad, kui konsensus ning on võimalik, et ORCL peab tõstma oma ostupakkumist PSFT-i jaoks.
Mõlema firma aktsiad võtavad uudise vastu üpris leigelt.- Pisike Nanogen (NGEN) on täna hommikul 45% plussis, kuna sai uue patendi omanikuks. Reeglina sellised uudised firmasid nii ei mõjuta, kuid viimastel päevadel on nanotehnoloogia sektoris tegutsevad firmad investorite lemmikuks olnud ning sellest tulenevalt ei ole ükski hind liiga kõrge. NGEN võib karudele päris huvipakkuvaks kandidaadiks olla. Iga haip saab mingil hetkel läbi.
- Teine pisike firma, mis täna hommikul ligemale 10% plussis on ADC Telecom (ADCT). Deutsche Bank-i analüütikud tõstsid firma reitingu Osta peale varasema Hoia asemel, kuna firma kasumipotentsiaal on märksa kõrgem kui turg hinnata oskab. Piisab vaid rahakaotavate osakondade mahamüümisest.
- Productivity 9.4% vs 9.2% consensus
Turu reaktsioon kergelt positiivne.
- Vaadake kindlasti täna Tenet Healthcare (THC) liikumist. Kas seekord suudetakse vastupanu murda?
- Gary B. Smith:
- ReVShark:Stock market participants can always find something to worry about. We worry that when things look bad it will continue that way forever, and we worry that when things are good that they will come to a screeching halt at any moment. If there isn't something tangible to worry about, our imagination can always provide something. We worry about waking up in the morning and being greeted with a stock market crash or a terrorist attack or a major disaster.
A little worry is a good thing. After all, it really is a dangerous world and bad things do happen. Caution is often warranted but if we let our worries go too far we'll end up doing nothing as we wait for the sky to fall.
One of the consequences of the bubble days and the subsequent bear market is that it is very easy to worry about being caught in the same situation. After all, the market is up huge and we keep hearing from the fundamental folks about how expensive stocks are on a historic basis. Isn't it sensible and reasonable to worry about another huge meltdown like we saw in 2000?
A repeat of that scenario is certainly a possibility. So do we give into our worries, move into cash and wait to see if the prophecies of doom are proved correct? You could do that but you are likely to miss out on some very good opportunities to make money.
The way we handle our worries is to develop ways to control our risk. We don't stop trading because we are worried about an uncertain future. The future will always be unknown. What we do is develop an approach that keeps us in the game but takes us out when there are real tangible signs of trouble and not just our imaginations at work.
For technicians, that means you pay very close attention to the charts that are in front of you and react to the pattern as it exists at this moment. You don't worry about surprise events that you can't control. You stay focused on the technical picture and react as it unfolds.
The bears can provide you a very long list of the things you can worry about but they are going to have some difficulty finding major problems with the technical picture now. Yes, we are somewhat extended, but the uptrend is intact, there is momentum in place and we continue to drive to new highs. Sure, that picture can change quickly but for now there isn't any compelling reason to dump your long positions and go hide in the basement.
One of the reasons I've maintained a rather bullish stance for a while now is that I continue to find individual stocks with promising chart formations. There are good setups out there and I can't justify letting vague macro concerns keep me from a trade when the odds look like they are in my favor.
Monitor your positions and work those charts. Those are the things that will tell you when the market is becoming dangerous. If you spend time looking at what is in front of you, the inclination to act on vague worries and concerns about the future will fade away.
Early indications are close to flat. The dollar continues to struggle against the euro and remains an important topic of conversation. There is talk that the Fed will need to start signaling the possibility of interest rate hikes in order to help support the dollar. European markets are slightly higher, while Asia is mixed. Spot gold is down slightly but continues to hold about the $400 level.
The analysts are saying nice things about Comcast (CMCSK:Nasdaq), Intel (INTC:Nasdaq) and the pharmacy benefit managers. The economic calendar is light, with only the ISM Services number of any major consequence.
The market was acting fairly well yesterday until it was hit by a big option trade that brought in some selling. Will the bulls regroup and make another try today or will the bears try to build on yesterday's reversal?
Futuurid: Naz0.45% SP0.32%
sB -
Nasdaq on jagu saanud (vähemalt päevasiseselt) 2000 piirist. Vaatame mis edasi saab
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Järgmisel (2004) aastal harjume sellega ära,et NASDAQ indeksi esimene number ongi pidevalt 2 .
