Börsipäev 4 - 5. detsember
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Mõned teemad tänaseks päevaks:
- Merrill Lynch tõstab täna hommikul Cisco Systemsi (CSCO) reitingu Osta peale varasema Neutraalse pealt. Analüütikute arvates peaks nõudlus IT-toodete järele tõusma 2004/2005 aastal. Hinnasihiks $29.
- Pisike Allos Therapeutics (ALTH) teatas täna oodatult, et nende vähiravimikandidaat RSR13, mis peaks aitama neid naisi, kelle rinnavähk on hakanud siirdeid ajama juba ajju näitas III katsefaasis suurepäraseid tulemusi. Müügiluba võib tulla juba 2004. aasta teises pooles ning müügipotentsiaaliks võib olla $250-300 mln aastas. Seda on päris palju $70 mln turuväärtusega pisikese biotechi jaoks. Usun, et ALTH on üks nendest firmadest, millel on päris head võimalused eduks.
- JP Morgan on täna hommikul väljas analüüsiga, kus soovitab investoritel tungivalt osta Pfizeri (PFE) aktsiaid. Põhjendused praktiliselt kõik need, mille tõi eilsel investeerimisseminaril välja ka Rain Lõhmus. Firma aktsiad on allahinnatud nii ajalooliselt kui ka võrreldes kogu turuga. Rain pakkus eile välja, et PFE hind peaks kahekordistuma järgmise nelja aastaga.
- Qualcomm (QCOM) tõstis täna hommikul päris märkimisväärselt jooksva kvartali prognoose. Aktsiad on eelturul 6-7% plussis, mis on nii suure firma kohta päris tubli tõus.
- Circuit City (CC) same-store müük tõsusis sellel kuul 4%. See on päris hea number võrreldes eelmiste kuude kukkumisega. Muidugi ei anna seda võrrelda konkurendi Best Buy (BBY) 8.6% numbriga kolmandas kvartalis. Vastukaaluks müüginumbrile on Barrons täna hommikul kirjutanu neg. maigua loo CC teemal. Siiski midagi uut sealt välja lugeda ei ole võimalik.
- Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) teatas, et hakkab oma suurarvutites kasutama Transmeta (TMTA) Efficeon-tyypi protsessoreid. Tegemist on päris olulise uudisega pisikese protsessoritootja jaoks.
- Corning (GLW) teatas, et kinnitab oma jooksva kvartali käibeprognoosi.
- Täna õhtul on Inteli (INTC) kvartali vahearuanne. Viimase nädala jooksul on praktiliselt kõik firma aktsiaid katvad analüütikud oma jooksva kvartali prognoose tõstnud. Ootused on päris kõrged, mis tähendab, et kui INTC peaks tegema ühe valesammu, siis on kukkumina päris kõva.
- Gary B. Smith:
- RevShark:A nasty pullback after the Nasdaq briefly breached the 2000 level produced a hefty dose of fear yesterday, particularly amongst momentum traders. Volume on the Nasdaq picked up sharply as it sold off, an indication that there was a little panic in the air.
The downward spiral was led by some of the recent highfliers, primarily in the technology sector. A good example of a momentum favorite that took a hit is Sandisk (SNDK:Nasdaq), which is up over 500% since the start of this rally. Quite a few other recent leaders took some big hits as well.
Is this the beginning of the end of the massive rally? Will the brief dalliance with Nasdaq 2000 mark the end of the huge run? Should we sell everything and move into cash? Maybe. We do need to be more cautious, but this rally has made quick work of the bears who have dared to assume that it is ready to roll over and play dead.
Technically the sharp reversal yesterday was clearly a negative. When a stock or index makes a new high and then reverses to close at its low, it is a sign that the bulls have exhausted their buying power. The inability to sustain the move demonstrates a lack of buying potency. The TA textbooks will tell you that such action is a sign that we need to use increased caution. The odds are that there will be some sort of downside follow-through.
However, one key characteristic of this massive rally is how often it has ignored the TA playbook. We have a whole series of V-shaped bounces over the past nine months, which is not the action technicians normally expect.
Howard Simon noted in Columnist Conversation yesterday that during the course of this rally we have had 10 prior "key reversal" days where we made a new high before reversing and finishing below the prior day's close. Obviously since we have continued to rally for so long, those reversals weren't so "key" after all.
If you look at the reversal days on Oct. 15 and then on Nov. 7 we did have some downside follow-through that lasted for a few days. However, each was followed by a V-type reversal that took us straight back up to new highs.
So what do we do now? We respect the technical action and become more cautious. Tighten stops, don't let losers run too far and be more selective with new buys. Play good defense so that your offense will be well positioned when their time comes.
The watchful eye of caution will allow us to strike with the firm and strong hand of courage once the profit taking has run its course. The idea is to be properly positioned when a tradable bounce comes along.
In the early going we have a bit of a bounce shaping up. Merrill Lynch upgraded Cisco (CSCO:Nasdaq), Intel (INTC:Nasdaq) is expected to say optimistic things at its midquarter update later today and the analysts are coming to the rescue of a number of stocks that were trashed in yesterday's selloff. Overseas markets are mixed, gold is down a couple of bucks and oil is up. We have the weekly unemployment data coming up at 8:30 a.m. EST, which will attract some attention.
The big-cap technology stocks will be of particular interest today. They have underperformed their small-cap cousins for a while. We may be seeing a shift of cash into that group as big fund managers who can't buy small-caps look for places to try to make up some performance before the end of the year.
Stay cautious today and respect yesterday's sharp reversal. We may indeed bounce back quickly but now is the time to err on the side of caution rather than aggressiveness.
Futuurid: Naz0.49% SP0.13%
sB -
Väike kommentaar - turg rallis üsna võimsalt viimasel tunnil, kuna viimasel tunnil on enamasti suur raha ostmas, siis on see väga tugev märk - keskpäeval paistsid asjad juba halba pööret võtvat.
Vaatame mis pärast sulgemist Intel (INTC) toob. -
Teab keegi BMY eilse miinuse põhjust?
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Mõned teemad tänaseks päevaks:
- Kristjan on pannud avalöögi alla täna ka ühe kiire idee, milleks on Sothebys Holdings (BID). Tegemist on ilmselt maailma kuulsaima oksjonikorraldajaga, mis ei tohiks olla võõras ka nendele LHV klientidele kes aasta alguses investeerimisseminaridel käisid. Tol hetkel maksid aktsiad siiski $7-8.
- Eile toimus maailma ühe suurima IT firma IBM-i (IBM) analüütikute päev, kus juhtkond andis mõista, et firmad üldiselt on valmis jällegi tehnoloogiasse investeerima. Firma finantsjuhi kommentaar oli selline: "..customers are looking at various economic data and starting to feel like maybe it's time. How quickly it will pick up I'm not going to
predict..."
Veel lisas juhtkond, et nad on järjest enam viimas oma IT-teenuseid Ameerikast välja, kuna tööjõukulud seal on liiga kõrged võrreldes muuda riikidega. Indiast on saamas IT-outsourcingu meka ning see on paljuski kaasa aidanud selliste tegijate nagu INFY, WIP jt. aktsia hindade tõusule.
- Warnaco (WRNC) kukkus eile päevasiseselt terve punkti vähem kui 30 minuti jooksul. Ühtegi uudist selle taga ei olnud. Kui vaatate kogu turu käitumist (ning ka konkurentide LIZ, TOM, RL, JNY oma), siis leiate ka põhjuse. Tasub märkimist, et kukkumise põhjustas ca 15K aktsiate müügisoov, mille täitjaks imho oli vägagi oskamatu diiler. Suurepärane ostuvõimalus, mida paljud ka kasutasid. Selle tulemusel hüppas hind enam kui pool punkti tagasi.
Warnaco (WRNC) pakub väga huvitavat investeerimisvõimalust. Lähemalt LHV Pro all.
- Intel (INTC)-i eilsed prognoosid olid päris OK, kuid täna hommikul on mitmed analüütikud välja üpris skeptiliste avaldustega. Nende arvates ei ole suutnud INTC oma tegevust piisavalt diversifitseerida. Kui 1997. aastal moodustas PC protsessorite pealt tulev müük 77% käibest, siis sellel aastal on see number 10% võrra kõrgem. See tähendab seda, et kuigi firma on viimase 5-6 aasta jooksul püüdnud tungida nii mitmelegi uuele turule (eelkõige wireless), siis erilist edu seal pole saavutatud. Viimased paar aastat on Intelast räägitud kui eelkõige tulevasest "wireless-playst."
Teiselt poolt tuli eileõhtune langus loomulikult ka sellepärast, et aktsiad on lihtsalt nii kõrgele juba aetud. Arutasime veel Kristjaniga eile õhtul, et INTC puhul on tegemist lose-lose olukorraga, kus aktsiad peaksid kukkuma nii siis kui firmal on pos kommentaare kui ka siis kui ei ole. Kumbki meist sellele panustada ei julgenud siiski..
- 08:30 Nonfarm Payrolls +57k vs +150k consensus; Unemployment rate 5.9% vs 6.0% consensus
Turu reaktsioon valdavalt negatiivne. Dollar kukub.
- Gary B. Smith:
- ReVshark:
is a tale of two markets. While the DJIA heads for the 10,000 level, the Nasdaq is struggling. After outperforming for months, the small-caps and momentum favorites are suddenly lagging the big-caps and cyclical stocks. The economic recovery appears to be humming along but the stock market advance has slowed as investors worry that all of the good news has already been priced in. While the bears envision a bull market still in its early stages, the bears predict an end to an unjustified bounce that is merely an echo of bad old bubble days.
The primary news this morning is the earnings update from Intel (INTC:Nasdaq), which is both good and bad. The good news was that revenue is predicted to be at the top end of the range and EPS is slightly increased by some analysts. The bad news is that the stock is down because the revenue range was not increased, a large one-time charge is being taken, and investors wanted more.
The indices put together a nice late-day recovery yesterday in part because of optimism about the Intel report, but disappointed investors sold the news after-hours and we are setting up for a weak open this morning.
The technical picture is also mixed and depends on what index you happen to be looking at. The S&P 500 has traded in a tight range for four days and has a nice base in place from which to move higher. A nice, healthy pattern is in place. The DJIA made a new closing high yesterday and has pretty good support at the 9900 level. On the other hand, although the Nasdaq and the small-cap indices redeemed themselves somewhat with a late-day recovery, they are not as picturesque as the senior indices. They need some sort of follow-through to the upside for a healthier technical picture.
My primary concern about this market is that many of the recent momentum favorites have been struggling. We need a healthy dose of speculative action to keep this market running. When the momentum boys stop making money the pullbacks can be quite painful.
I like to monitor the stocks in the IBD 100 to help determine the state of speculative action. There have been quite a few major breakdowns on the list lately. The most glaring are the education stocks, which are subject to news reports about the possibility of fraud at one of the companies. Retailers on the list look particularly poor and some of the technology issues have also pulled back sharply. The buyers need to be shopping this list if we are going to do anything major to the upside.
There is definitely an increase in worry and concern lately. The bulls will tell you that is a good thing because buyers will marshal their buying power and eventually set us up for another leg up. The bears will argue that we've already had too many legs up and the increase in worry is merely a return to rationality.
We have a weak open shaping up at the moment but we have a key employment report due out at 8:30 a.m. EST that is likely to shake things up a bit. The market has done a very poor job of rallying on good news so this will be a good test. The consensus is for an unemployment rate of 6.0% and an increase in nonfarm payrolls of 150,000. After the slightly weak weekly unemployment report yesterday expectations may be reined in a bit and may be the cause of some jitters in the early action.
It's going to be tricky out there, especially if the speculative favorites continue to struggle
Futuurid: Naz-1.26% SP-0.55%
sB -
Mõned teemad tänaseks päevaks:
- Kristjan on pannud avalöögi alla täna ka ühe kiire idee, milleks on Sothebys Holdings (BID). Tegemist on ilmselt maailma kuulsaima oksjonikorraldajaga, mis ei tohiks olla võõras ka nendele LHV klientidele kes aasta alguses investeerimisseminaridel käisid. Tol hetkel maksid aktsiad siiski $7-8.
- Eile toimus maailma ühe suurima IT firma IBM-i (IBM) analüütikute päev, kus juhtkond andis mõista, et firmad üldiselt on valmis jällegi tehnoloogiasse investeerima. Firma finantsjuhi kommentaar oli selline: "..customers are looking at various economic data and starting to feel like maybe it's time. How quickly it will pick up I'm not going to
predict..."Veel lisas juhtkond, et nad on järjest enam viimas oma IT-teenuseid Ameerikast välja, kuna tööjõukulud seal on liiga kõrged võrreldes muuda riikidega. Indiast on saamas IT-outsourcingu meka ning see on paljuski kaasa aidanud selliste tegijate nagu INFY, WIP jt. aktsia hindade tõusule.
- Warnaco (WRNC) kukkus eile päevasiseselt terve punkti vähem kui 30 minuti jooksul. Ühtegi uudist selle taga ei olnud. Kui vaatate kogu turu käitumist (ning ka konkurentide LIZ, TOM, RL, JNY oma), siis leiate ka põhjuse. Tasub märkimist, et kukkumise põhjustas ca 15K aktsiate müügisoov, mille täitjaks imho oli vägagi oskamatu diiler. Suurepärane ostuvõimalus, mida paljud ka kasutasid. Selle tulemusel hüppas hind enam kui pool punkti tagasi.
Warnaco (WRNC) pakub väga huvitavat investeerimisvõimalust. Lähemalt LHV Pro all.
- Intel (INTC)-i eilsed prognoosid olid päris OK, kuid täna hommikul on mitmed analüütikud välja üpris skeptiliste avaldustega. Nende arvates ei ole suutnud INTC oma tegevust piisavalt diversifitseerida. Kui 1997. aastal moodustas PC protsessorite pealt tulev müük 77% käibest, siis sellel aastal on see number 10% võrra kõrgem. See tähendab seda, et kuigi firma on viimase 5-6 aasta jooksul püüdnud tungida nii mitmelegi uuele turule (eelkõige wireless), siis erilist edu seal pole saavutatud. Viimased paar aastat on Intelast räägitud kui eelkõige tulevasest "wireless-playst."
Teiselt poolt tuli eileõhtune langus loomulikult ka sellepärast, et aktsiad on lihtsalt nii kõrgele juba aetud. Arutasime veel Kristjaniga eile õhtul, et INTC puhul on tegemist lose-lose olukorraga, kus aktsiad peaksid kukkuma nii siis kui firmal on pos kommentaare kui ka siis kui ei ole. Kumbki meist sellele panustada ei julgenud siiski..
Täna hommikul rääkisin ühe elukutselise kauplejaga, kes oli INTC tulemuste suhtes jällegi väga positiivselt meelestatud. Kui see $600 mln tulemustest välja arvata, siis olid need päris head. Arvamusi mitmeid.- 08:30 Nonfarm Payrolls +57k vs +150k consensus; Unemployment rate 5.9% vs 6.0% consensus
Turu reaktsioon valdavalt negatiivne. Dollar kukub.
- Gary B. Smith:
- ReVshark:is a tale of two markets. While the DJIA heads for the 10,000 level, the Nasdaq is struggling. After outperforming for months, the small-caps and momentum favorites are suddenly lagging the big-caps and cyclical stocks. The economic recovery appears to be humming along but the stock market advance has slowed as investors worry that all of the good news has already been priced in. While the bears envision a bull market still in its early stages, the bears predict an end to an unjustified bounce that is merely an echo of bad old bubble days.
The primary news this morning is the earnings update from Intel (INTC:Nasdaq), which is both good and bad. The good news was that revenue is predicted to be at the top end of the range and EPS is slightly increased by some analysts. The bad news is that the stock is down because the revenue range was not increased, a large one-time charge is being taken, and investors wanted more.
The indices put together a nice late-day recovery yesterday in part because of optimism about the Intel report, but disappointed investors sold the news after-hours and we are setting up for a weak open this morning.
The technical picture is also mixed and depends on what index you happen to be looking at. The S&P 500 has traded in a tight range for four days and has a nice base in place from which to move higher. A nice, healthy pattern is in place. The DJIA made a new closing high yesterday and has pretty good support at the 9900 level. On the other hand, although the Nasdaq and the small-cap indices redeemed themselves somewhat with a late-day recovery, they are not as picturesque as the senior indices. They need some sort of follow-through to the upside for a healthier technical picture.
My primary concern about this market is that many of the recent momentum favorites have been struggling. We need a healthy dose of speculative action to keep this market running. When the momentum boys stop making money the pullbacks can be quite painful.
I like to monitor the stocks in the IBD 100 to help determine the state of speculative action. There have been quite a few major breakdowns on the list lately. The most glaring are the education stocks, which are subject to news reports about the possibility of fraud at one of the companies. Retailers on the list look particularly poor and some of the technology issues have also pulled back sharply. The buyers need to be shopping this list if we are going to do anything major to the upside.
There is definitely an increase in worry and concern lately. The bulls will tell you that is a good thing because buyers will marshal their buying power and eventually set us up for another leg up. The bears will argue that we've already had too many legs up and the increase in worry is merely a return to rationality.
We have a weak open shaping up at the moment but we have a key employment report due out at 8:30 a.m. EST that is likely to shake things up a bit. The market has done a very poor job of rallying on good news so this will be a good test. The consensus is for an unemployment rate of 6.0% and an increase in nonfarm payrolls of 150,000. After the slightly weak weekly unemployment report yesterday expectations may be reined in a bit and may be the cause of some jitters in the early action.
It's going to be tricky out there, especially if the speculative favorites continue to struggle
Futuurid: Naz-1.26% SP-0.55%sB
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Intel oli hea, kuid mitte piisavalt hea, sama ka tänase tööjõuturu raportiga - hea, aga mitte piisavalt hea.
Mõlemad uudised kukutasid Nasdaqi futuure umbes 0.5% võrra, seega Nasdaq enne avanemist -1%.
Tänane päev täitsa tähtis, kui hästi turg neid kesiseid uudiseid seedib, on väga oluline. -
Stockmannis pommiähvardus...
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Eesti jalgpallikoondis sattus 3. alagruppi koos Portugali, Venemaa, Slovakkia, Läti, Liechtensteini ja Luksemburgiga.
Seega meil on päris hea võimalus kuhugi jõuda.......... -
Luik, kes neist peale Liechtensteini ja Luksemburgi veel kergem vastane olema peaks?
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Peale Portugali on kõik võidetavad, kuid sama hästi võib neile lihtsalt kaotada.
