Börsipäev 12. detsember
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Mõned teemad tänaseks päevaks:
- Wall Street Journal kirjutab täna hommikul China.com (CHINA)st positiivse tooniga artikli, kus räägitakse firma edusammudest peale suure internetimulli lõhkemist. CHINA on kasutanud oma suuri rahavarusid, et osta kokku probleemseid tarkvarafirmasid nii USAs kui Euroopas. Nende abil loodab firma tungida Hiina kiirestikasvavale takvaraturule (artikli järgi kasutavad ettevõtted seal valdavas osas ikka veel paberit ja pliiatsit info haldamisel). Paljude firmade puhul viiakse arendus üle Hiinasse, et kulusid veelgi langetada.
Kõik kõlab väga lootustandvalt, kuid käivet pole sellest siiani tekkinud.
- JP Morgan on täna hommikul jällegi välja positiivse nupukesega pooljuhtide tootmiseks vajaminevate seadmete tootjate suhtes. Nende arvates on semi equiment aktsiad jällegi liiga ülemüüdud.Samasuguse nupuga olid nad väljas ka 29. septembril ning kui vaatada Semiconducor Holdrs (SMH) graafikut, siis olin neil tol korral ka tuline õigus. AMAT, KLAC, LRCX, NVLS jt.
- UBS Warburg teatas, et alandab Ciena (CIEN) reitingut Neutraalse pealt Vähenda peale. Aktsiad kukkusid juba eile päris tublisti peale firma tulemuste avaldamist. Lisaks
- Ameritrade (AMTD) teatas, et tõstab oma jooksva kvartali EPS-i prognoosi varasema $0.14 pealt $0.14-0.17 peale. Lisaks sellele peaks jooksva finantsaasta EPS tulema vahemikus $0.37-0.59. Analüütikud ootavad kasumiks $0.55 aktsia kohta. AMTD tõusis eelturul uudise peale 4-5%.
Jooksva aasta EPS-i vahemik on jätkuvalt suur.
- Trade Balance -$41.8 vs -$41.8 bln consensus
- PPI -0.3% vs 0.1% consensus; core PPI -0.1% vs 0.0% consensus
Turu reaktsioon neutraalne või kergelt positiivne.
- Gary B. Smith:
- RevShark:Now that the DJIA has closed above the 10,000 barrier, does this market have the ability to move even higher? Many folks will tell you it's downright ridiculous to make such a big deal about hitting a round number. Obviously it doesn't make an appreciable difference to valuation levels or the technical picture than a close slightly lower. The market is just as expensive at 9999 as it is at 10,001. However, there obviously is a psychological shift when the market hits a major round number.
We saw great examples of this recently when both the Nasdaq and DJIA hit milestones and then immediately reversed. It was obvious that there was an emotion reaction the very moment those numbers were hit. The more pragmatic folks out there will try to tell you that it really doesn't make sense that the market reacted in that way but what they are forgetting is that the market is made up of millions of individuals who don't necessarily pay attention to the spreadsheets and profound logic of more sophisticated market mavens.
There are many folks who have been using the 10,000 mark as a point where they are going to make some moves. Even Jim Cramer has talked about that. He had a target of 10,000 and now that it is reached he is inclined to do some selling. He is still bullish but hitting that 10,000 target obviously has him contemplating what to do. 10,000 simply is a convenient trigger to make some portfolio adjustments.
Does that mean we are heading back down? I do think we will see some selling pressure. We had a taste of this the first time the DJIA hit 10,000 and the Nasdaq hit 2000. The second time we hit an important barrier the reaction is unlikely to be as severe but the folks who missed the opportunity to lock in profits the first time will be thinking about taking some profits off the table, especially if we don't see another quick burst to the upside.
We certainly had a nice bounce yesterday. Breadth was good, the Nasdaq and small-cap indices regained the 50-day moving average and the senior indices made new closing highs. Yes volume on the Nasdaq left something to be desired but overall it is not a bad technical picture.
However, as we have discussed numerous times lately this has been a tale of two markets. The major indices have not been a very good reflection of the action under the surface. For example on Wednesday the IBD 100 group of momentum stocks was hit very hard while the major indices did very little. Breadth was good yesterday but that was the first time in quite a while. We will have to watch it very carefully in the next few days.I spent some time last night looking at hundreds of charts of recent momentum favorites in search of good trading setups for today. Unlike a few weeks ago, I had a very difficult time finding much of interest. So many of these stocks were brutally taken down over the past week that yesterday's low-volume bounce does not inspire confidence that a solid follow-through is likely.
A couple days ago I outlined my view of how this market will play out over the next year or so. In the short term I am looking for one more fairly severe pullback before a strong rally around Christmas and into the beginning of January. We had the bounce I was looking for yesterday and it may continue into today, but then I will be watching for some fairly aggressive selling.
My logic is that the attainment of DJIA 10,000 and the recent breakdowns in many momentum and small-cap stocks will cause another flurry of selling as folks worry about protecting some pretty hefty gains for the year. There are many money managers who have had good years but are still lagging their benchmarks. I look for them to make one final charge near the end of the year. To get the most bang for their bucks they will be inclined to chase the high-beta momentum and small-cap stocks that can help them the most.
We have a flat open shaping up. Overseas markets were up across the board overnight. Gold is trading up again as is oil. However, the dollar is stable. We have the PPI index and the Michigan Sentiment Report on the economic calendar this morning.
My game plan is to stay very selective with any new long buys and to look for an opportunity to increase my QQQ short hedge. I want to have plenty of capital ready for buying opportunities in the next 10 days or so.
Futuurid: Naz0.04% SP0.18%
sB -
08:53 SGP Schering-Plough target raised to $25 at Thomas Weisel (16.81 )
Thomas Weisel reiterates their Outperform and raises their target to $25 from $23, saying results from their survey of cardiologists indicate Zetia use should increase from 11% currently to 15% of patients receiving a lipid-lowering drug. Surveyed cardiologists predict the usage of the Zetia/Zocor combination product to reach 24% one-year post-market launch, with gains coming not only from Zocor conversions but also from patients switching over from other statin treatments.
sB
