Börsipäev 18-19 detsember
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Mõned teemad tänaseks päevaks:
- 3Com (COMS) teatas eile õhtul tulemused, mis ületasid analüütikute ootusi. Käivet tuli viimases kvartalis üle $180 mln vs $160 mln analüütikute konsensust. Täna hommikul teatas Morgan Stanley, et tõstab COMS-i reitingu varasema Equal-Weight pealt Overweight peale. Hinnasihiks $11, mis jätab praegustelt tasemetelt päris tubli tõusuruumi.
- Wall Street Journal kirjutab täna hommikul biotehnoloogia IPOdest. Alates oktoobrist on turule tulnud 7 uut firmat ning vähemalt 13 on oma järgi ootamas. Siiski on investorite huvi IPOde vastu olnud üpris leige, mille tunnistuseks on fakt, et turule tulnud firmad kokku on avanemishinnast 16% allpool. Siiski märgitakse ära paar firmat, millede aktsiate vastu võib investoritel olla kõrgendatud huvi. Üheks selliseks on Eyetech, mis arendab ravimit silmahaiguse vastu, mille tulemusel jäävad inimesed reeglina pimedaks. Kui Eyetechi aktsiad IPOst lendu ei tõuse, tekitab see biotechi-pullide seas mitmeid küsimusi kogu sektori edasise suuna suhtes.
- Filmifirma Metro-Goldwyn-Mayer (MGM) on sattunud jällegi Time Warneri (TWX) huviorbiiti. TWX proovis MGM-i ära osta juba paari aasta eest, kuid siis ei jätkunud firmal raha. Kas seekord läheb libedamalt?
- CIBC-i analüütikud tõstavad Extreme Networksi (EXTR) reitingu tän ahommikul Sector Perform peale varasema Sector Underperform pealt. Põhjuseks jällegi madalam valuatsioon võrreldes konkurentidega (vt. eilset börsipäeva). Mäletatavasti kukkusid EXTR-i aktsiad nädala alguses ligemale neljandiku peale seda kui firma andis jooksvaks kvartaliks kasumi-ja käibehoiatuse. Kas tõesti analüütikud pakuvad karudele võimaluse neid aktsiad veel korra lühikeseks müüa?
- UBS-i analüütikud tõstavad täna hommikul maailma suurima jaemüüja Wal-Marti (WMT) reitingu Osta peale varasema Neutraalse pealt. Viimase aja kehvad müügitulemused peaksid investoritele pakkuma soodsa võimaluse aktsiate ostmiseks.
- JP Morgan tõstab apteegiketi Duane Reade (DRD) aktsiate reitingu Overweight peale varasema Neutraalse asemel. Ka lisatakse DRD aktsiad firma Fookusnimekirja $17.50 hinnasihiga. Ühed, kes tugevnevast konkurentsist ravimifirmade vahel võidavad on neid ravimeid müüvad firmad.
- Goldman Sachs tõstab Corningu (GLW) reitingu Outperform peale varasema In-Line asemel. Firma arvates on viimase aja langus hea võimalus ostmiseks. 3-6 kuu hinnasihiks $9-12 nign 12-18 sihiks $11-14.
- Therma-Wave (TWAV), mis ilutseb ka LHV enimkaubeldus aktsiate nimekirjas on täna hommikul ligemale 10% plussis, kuna sai Tokyo-Electronlt suurtellimuse.
- Initial Claims 353k vs 365k consensus
Turu reaktsioon veidi positiivne. Dollar naudib plussi euro vastu.
- Gary B. Smith:
- RevShark:The past ten days have presented some of the most unusual market action we've seen all year. The capture of Saddam turned into a nonevent, the Dow has worked steadily higher as cyclicals, industrials and energy stocks have attracted the momentum buyers, the Nasdaq has struggled as chips and retailers sold off, and there have been some massive pullbacks in stocks that have been this year's best performers.
Is this market undergoing some sort of major transition or rotation? Is leadership shifting from Dell (DELL:Nasdaq) and Intel (INTC:Nasdaq) to Deere (DE:NYSE) and 3M (MMM:NYSE)? Maybe in the short term, but we would be foolish to dump the feisty friends that brought us to this end-of-the-year party. Right now some of the older, more conservative stocks are looking very fetching, but it's more a function of being very late in the year, being tired out by the more energetic youthful techs and the inclination to finish out the year in the arms of a safer, more secure and more experienced companion.
The techs, momentum stocks, small-caps and highfliers will be back. End-of-the-year profit-taking and portfolio adjustments have pressured them, but they're setting up for a bounce as the holidays descend upon us and volume slows.
Now is the time to prepare for the market's year-end dance. Work now on identifying the stocks you want to share that midnight kiss with. Yes, they can be very irritating and uncooperative at times, but the momentum and small-cap favorites will be full of life during the holidays.
Now is the time to prepare. We saw some slowing in the selling of the highfliers yesterday, so there are some preliminary signs that they are building a base from which to finish the year. Remember, the key isn't to buy the bottom tick, but to buy when stocks offer the best chance of going up with the least amount of risk. The setups don't form in a day. It takes some time before the best patterns are ready.
Alan Farley wrote last night "I can't get over the feeling that in a few months the same tech and momentum stocks being dumped like hot potatoes right now will be leading the market again." I think he's right, but I think it's going to happen much sooner than a few months from now. Good preparation now will pay off big when we rotate back, so be ready.
We have a slightly positive open shaping up as European stocks recover from early weakness. The dollar continues to struggle against the euro, but this has been happening for so long now the market seems to be building up some tolerance for it.
We have some important economic reports due out this morning. The weekly unemployment claims, leading indicators and the Philly Fed Index should help establish the market tone.
Option expiry will help create some volatility in the bigger-caps and energy stocks should continue to garner attention, but watch for positioning in anticipation of a January effect/Santa Claus Rally.
It's going to stay tricky but preparation is of the utmost importance right now.
Futuurid: Naz0.18% SP0.09%
sB -
PKS, kui antud tasemeid suudetakse hoida, siis sulgub aktsia viie kuu kõrgeimate tasemete juures. Hea oleks sulgumine kõrgemal ka 7$ tasemest, mis oleks läbimurde maiguga ja peaks kohale meelitama muid tehnikuid ja nende vanaemasid :)
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To Rene Ilves: Ega suurim müüja juhuslikult Cascade Investments LLC pole? Bill Gatesi vastu ei pidanud keegi saama ;o)
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hehe :)
siiski cascade investment llc on aktsiate ostmist alustanud k6rgemalt ja nende keskmine peaks 7$ kandis olema. eks nad taha ikka kasumit kah saada :) -
UPM-Kymmene (UPM1V) teatas just, et on müünud 4Q jooksul 11,3M Nokia aktsiat ehk kõik omanduses olevad aktsiad. Teadupärast oli UPM üks Nokia suurimaid aktsionäre.
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Mõned teemad tänaseks päevaks:
- Kuigi SP500 ja Dow tegid eile uued tipud ei ole tehnoloogia esindatuna Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) indeksiga suutnud nendega sammu pidada. Kui tehnoloogia peaks vastupanu juurest uuesti tagasi tulema on see päris tõsine ohumärk.
- Teisejärguline RBC Capital tõstab täna hommikul Ariba (ARBA) reitingu Outperform peale varasema Sector Perform juurest. Põhjusteks madal valuatsioon ning tõusvad trendid firma toodete nõudluse osas. Aktsiad on novembri algusest 15% kukkunud, kuid selle ajaga on firma suutnud kinni lüüa 3 suurt tehingut, mis peaksid neljanda kvartali tulemusi päris tublisti aitama. Hinnasihiks $4.
- ATI Tech (ATYT) kaupleb täna hommikul 5-6% sulgemisest kõrgemal, kuna firma tulemused tulid oodatust veidi paremad. Samas tõstis firma järgmise kvartali käibeprognoosi kuni 10% kõrgemale analüütikute konsensustest.
- Banc of America tõstab täna hommikul linuxiarendaja Red Hati (RHAT) reitingu Osta peale varasema Neutraalse asemel. Eile õhtul avaldas firma oma kvartalitulemused, millest oli näha, et firma oli suutnud müüa oma linuxiversiooni 33000 kliendile ning prognoosis järgmiseks kvartaliks 40000 suurust numbrit. Analütikud oli oodanud vastavalt 27500 ning 29000. BofA paneb uueks hinnasihiks $19, mis on siiski 75-kordne 2005. aasta kasumiprognoos aktsia kohta.
- BusinessWeeki aktsiad on täna hommikul ESPR, TLCV ning TAP.A.
- Six Flags (PKS) on ilmselt lähipäevil üritamas $7 vastupanu murdmist. Kui see peaks õnnestuma, peaks sama suund jätkuma veel mõnda aega.
- RevShark:
The clear fact is that the S&P 500 and DJIA are hitting new annual highs. Obviously we must have a very strong market with the two senior indices at such dramatically high levels. The DJIA has gone practically straight up since hitting an interim low on Nov. 21.
If you look at the Nasdaq, the Nasdaq 100 and the small-cap indices, things aren't so obvious. It is quite surprising to see how many technology stocks, small-caps and momentum favorites remain well off their highs despite the impressive-looking action in the big indices. The huge move and solid breadth in the Nasdaq yesterday produced only 122 new 12-month highs. That certainly isn't what you'd expect to see when the news media is talking about new highs in the stock market.
On the other hand the NYSE had 349 new 12-month highs. Obviously there is a new crop of leadership in this market. The most notable group is the energy stocks but also banks, finance, transports, metals and steel are also helping to push up the senior indices.
Is this rotation out of technology and into other groups going to continue? If we are going to make good money in this market in the days ahead we are going to have to focus on how this sector rotation plays out. Are energy, financials and metals stocks going to continue to outperform technology and momentum stocks? That is the million dollar question right now.
Typically the sorts of stocks that are leading now do not have sustained momentum. These are generally more conservative stocks with many long-term holders who are inclined to take profits into strength. They don't chase things like the hot money players. With the DJIA and SP500 looking rather extended it may not be easy for this group to keep moving, especially if conservative fund managers move to lock in some of the recent gains.
Should we be anticipating a rotation back into the stocks that lead this rally for so long through the summer and fall? Wait for more solid clues but we are heading into a time of the year when the small stocks outperform, which creates almost perfect timing for a rotation back into technology and momentum stocks. However, let's look for some hard evidence and don't let wishful thinking drive your decision making.
I was quite surprised as I went through charts last night at how many Nasdaq stocks that have been beaten up badly struggled to bounce on yesterday's strength. Many charts improved but still need more work to offer good entries. My watch list of potential trade candidates this morning is much shorter than I thought it would be. There were some signs of bottoming action in some stocks but less than I expected.
My thesis for this market has been that we would set up for a rally into the end of the year and beginning January. For the vast majority of Nasdaq stocks I believe that is exactly what is happening. The overall picture is a bit confusing because of the unusual strength in the DJIA and S&P 500 industrial and energy stocks but there are a lot of technology and small-cap stocks that have suffered some brutal profit taking in recent weeks and are set to bounce as Santa comes to call.
Watch for signs of rotation back into the stocks that drove this market during the summer. If we are going to have a Santa Claus rally it is that group that will lead the way.
We have another tame open on tap today. Overseas markets were mixed with strength in Japan but flat action in Europe. The dollar continues to struggle. Oil and gold are down.
We have a rebalancing of the Nasdaq 100 Index at the close today which should help produce some artificial action as indexers make adjustments. New additions to the index are MRVL, GRMN, CECO, LRCX, LVLT, ISIL, ATYT, and RIMM. The stocks being deleted are: ADCT, BRCD, CIEN, ERICY, HGSI, ICOS, MNST, and RFMD. If you are in any of these expect some unusual volatility.
Futuurid: Naz-0.17% SP-0.10%
sB
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MSFT started with an Overweight at JP Morgan
JP Morgan initiates coverage of Microsoft with an Overweight rating; firm says the co is in the middle of several major product cycles, including Office 2003, Windows Server 2003, and an invigorated push into the small business mkt; in combination with accelerating PC and Server shipments, these factors should enable the co to grow rev at 9-10% in FY04 and earnings at 8-9%.
MSFT on sB uusim soovitus LHV Pros. -
PKS on murdnud 7$ taseme, lisaks juurde ettevõtte madal valuatsioon ja tegemist on hea ostumomendiga.
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NYC rünnakuohu all ja futuurid tegid kiire jõnksu allapoole.
11:45 More on ABC News terrorist report
ABC News reports that U.S. intelligence has received information about a credible and imminent threat to New York City. Sources say the threat involves a suicide bomber, possibly a female. The information was received through communication intercepts, and no specific target has been identified. Discussions between local and federal law enforcement officials are currently underway to develop a response. Officials around the nation were already actively engaged with the Dept of Homeland Security in serious discussions about whether events, chatter, and the time of year warrant elevating the threat level inside the US to Orange for the upcoming holiday season that starts tonight at sunset.
