Börsipäev 24. dets - Hullud lehmad
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Mõned teemad tänaseks päevaks:
- Hullu lehma tõbi on Ameerikas pead tõstmas. Eile õhtul tuli uudis, et ühel lehmal on see tõbi leitud ning kahtlustatakse, et asi võib levida. Tavaliselt läheb 6-8 aastat enne kui see nö. välja lööb, mis tähendab, et Ameerikat võib ees oodata suured probleemid.
SG Cowen on siiski veidi positiivsem. Nende analüüs täna hommikul väidab, et kui Kanadas avastati selle aasta Mais tõvejuhtum, siis esimese päeva jooksul tegid suurima kukkumise läbi McDonalds (MCD) ning Wendy's (WEN) (6-8% kukkumised). Siiski järgmise 10 päeva jooksul aktsiad toibusid täielikult. Teised restoraniketid kukkusid 3-5% ning tõusid tagasi.
Täna hommikul on ostusurve all ka sellised firmad nagu Bio-Rad (BIO), Orchid Bio (ORCH) ning Paradigm Genetics (PDGM). Esimene on üks vähestest firmadest maailmas, mis toodab ja arendab hullu lehma tõve teste. Teised kaks on alles arendusfaasis.
Nii Jaapan kui Venemaa on teatanud, et USA loomaliha import on peatatud. TSN, HRL, SFD
Dollar on uudise peale -0.25% Euro vastu miinuses, mis on tegelikult päris pisike langus. Oleks oodanud tõsisemat neg. reaktsiooni. FWIW!- Six Flags (PKS) liikus eile päris tublisti, jõudes täpselt $7.50 juures asuva vastupanu alla. Futuurid on täna hommikul miinuses ning üldise negatiivse sentimenti juures ootaks nüüd väikest korrektsiooni. Üldpilt PKS-i puhul siiski väga positiivne.
- Initial Claims 353K vs 355K consensus
- Durable Orders -3.1% vs 1.0% consensus
- RevShark:Will the bullish single-mindedness of market participants carry us higher through the holiday season? Can a mad cow stop a charging bull? Will the rotation back into technology stocks triggered by the blow-out quarter of Research in Motion (RIMM:Nasdaq) continue? Those are the issues we face on this half day of Christmas Eve trading.
The DJIA and S&P 500 were able to pull off yet another positive day and strong close on Tuesday. The two senior indices are in overbought territory, but have not shown any major signs of cracking. Yesterday we finally saw some movement back into the technology and small-cap stocks that have been lagging for the last couple weeks. The big question for the next few days of trading is whether that rotation will continue and put some pressure on the industrials and cyclicals that have been driving the DJIA. The other issue on the radar this morning is a single case of mad-cow disease in Washington. There are some restaurant and food companies that will be impacted, but there doesn't appear to be any impact on the broader market.
For some time I've been talking about a small-cap, technology and momentum stock rally to end the year. The last couple of days have provided some signs that we are indeed starting to see that unfold. The RIMM action yesterday helped embolden technology and small-cap traders, and it helped the Nasdaq to its best relative strength versus the senior indices in a while.
Technically we are set up perfectly for this rotation to continue. The DJIA in particular is quite extended, while the Nasdaq 100 and Russell 2000 are on the verge of breaking to new highs. It doesn't take any great leap in imagination to envision money flowing out of extended oils, cyclicals and industrial stocks and back into technology and small-caps as their indices break to new highs.
The key factor today is that it is going to be extremely thin trading and plenty of traders will be distracted by holiday merriment. We saw some program trading late yesterday, which helped push the indices to a strong finish. It won't be a big surprise to see that sort of action occur once again. The days surrounding Christmas have a historic positive bias, so the odds are with the bulls.
In the early going, the indices are looking lackluster, but the Nasdaq is looking a bit more buoyant than the big indices. Overseas markets are slightly higher, the dollar continues its struggles and gold and oil are trading up.
We have a number of economic reports due out today, including weekly unemployment data, new home sales and durable goods. We should see some market jiggles as that data is digested by the market.
Thin trading on a day like today can keep things very tricky, but it can also offer some great rewards if you catch the right stocks at the right time. Good luck and go get 'em.
Futuurid: Naz-0.17% SP-0.26%
sB
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