Börsipäev 5 - 6. jaanuar
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Mõned teemad tänaseks päevaks:
- Tänane hommik on väga aktiivne eriti suurte maaklerfirmade poolelt, kes annavad aktsiatele reitinguid.
- SG Cowen tõstab täna hommikul terve hulga tehnoloogiafirmade aktsiate reitinguid: MSFT; DELL; AMAT; KLAC; FDRY; EXTR; SNPS.
Microsofti (MSFT) puhul tõstetakse reiting Strong Buy peale varasema Outperform pealt. AG Coweni analüütikute arvates on MSFT aktsiad hetkel väga soodsalt hinnatud, kaubeldes vaid 21x nende 2005. aasta prognoositavat kasumit aktsia khta. Kuna 2003. aastal jäid firma aktsiad tehnoloogiarongist maha, siis 2004. peaks tulema märksa parem.
MSFT on ka LHV Pro valik.
- Veel kommenteerib SG Cowen ka Sirius Satellite (SIRI) aktsiate 77% tõusu viimase 10 kauplemispäeva jooksul. Nende arvates on tegemist liige optimismiga, mis pikas perspektiivis võib olla õigustatud, kuid lühemas kindlasti mitte. SIRI on selle peale 7-8% PLUSSIS eelturul..
- Morgan Stanley tõstab täna hommikul Pziferi (PFE) reitingu Overweight peale varasema Equal-Weight asemel. Nende arvates peaksid PFE aktsiad lähema aasta jooksul ülejäänud sektorist paremini käituma. Analüütikud toovad välja huvitava infokillukese: Nimelt nende arvutuste kohaselt peaksid järgmise lainena saabuvad (2004-06 ravimiametile hindamiseks esitatavad) ravimid omama kuni 16-17 miljardi dollari suurust müügipotentsiaali. See on märksa suurem number kui perioodil 2001-03 välja tulnud ravimite 4 miljardi dollari suurune potentsiaal. Hinnasihiks $42 varasema $37 asemel.
Firma aktsiad on uudise peale 2% eelturul plussis, mis on nii suure firma jaoks päris suur tõus. See räägib nõudlusest.
Pfizer (PFE) ON LHV Pro valik.
- Siebel Systems (SEBL) tõstis täna hommikul oma neljanda kvartali kasumi-ja käibeprognoose. Aktsiad on 8-9% eelturul plussis.
- Farmaatsiafirmade rohelust häirib vaid Eli-Lilly (LLY), mille aktsiad on paari protsenti miinuses peale seda, kui firma andis 2004. aastaks pisikese kasumihoiatuse.
- Tänase hommiku suurimaks kaotajaks on Repligen (RGEN), pisike ravimifirma, mille väikeste laste autismi raviv ravimikandidaat ei näidanud piisavald häid katsetulemusi. Aktsia on eelturul 45% miinuses. Siiski on antud ravimikandidaadil veel võimalus ennast tõestada skisofreenia ravimisel. Kuna firmal on $1 jagu raha aktsia kohta ning veel mitu ravimikandidaati, siis oleksin huvitatud firma aktsiate ostmisest $2 kandis.
- Gary B. Smith:
- RevShark:The long, hard grind now begins. I have no idea what position the market will be in a year from now but I do know, with absolute certainty, that there will be plenty of opportunities for profits in the days ahead if we work hard and stay disciplined.
It is quite easy to look back at the performance during the past year and to think that it won't be possible to duplicate such a good year. But we aren't dependent on the indices. We can do well in any market environment if we persevere and keep on slogging along, even when the going is extremely tough.
There are teams like the Tampa Bay Buccaneers who followed their Super Bowl victory with an abysmal year. There are lots of reasons that happens, but if we do our best and take the market one day at a time, we don't have to fall into that same trap.
Market pundits have been consistent in predicting that 2004 will be a slightly positive to a flat year. If there's one thing we've learned over the years about these sorts of predictions, it's that the consensus is almost always long. The market has a way of doing the unexpected. Let's let the future take care of itself and focus on what is in front of us.
The most notable thing right now about this market is how extended the DJIA and S&P 500 are. They have been going straight up for about a month now. The Nasdaq and small-caps have lagged the senior indices. Capital has rotated into cyclical and industrial stocks that have not had the same huge gains that many technology and small-caps enjoyed in 2003.
The big question is how this will play out in the days ahead. Do cyclicals and industrials continue to run, or will investors become more interested in the technology stocks that have pulled back and are digesting last year's big gains?A lot of folks have been anticipating a flurry of selling due to folks with big gains waiting for a new tax year taking profits. There may indeed be some pressure of this type, but it is a mistake to anticipate that it will kick in fully and completely and drive the market straight down. There are a number of seasonal factors right now, the most prominent of which is retirement play contributions, that favor the bulls. This is the time of year when cash inflows are strong, and that money usually doesn't sit around for long.
We face a rather classic dilemma. The indices are extended but the uptrend is clearly intact and momentum is positive. Should we anticipate the end of this long run of positive action? No, but we should be cautious. Don't forget the lesson of the bubble days: Extended markets can become far, far more extended. Markets are not logical beasts. They are emotional and can stay irrational for very long periods of time.
In many ways we have much the same conditions that existed at the start of 2000. We just racked up a big year and ended with a very strong run in December. The Nasdaq was very extended at the end of 1999 but it went another 25% before finally topping out.
I don't think we have the sort perfect storm of events for that to happen again but we should have learned from those events to have respect for strong momentum and uptrends. The easiest way to get in trouble is to try to be a fortune teller.
Regardless of how you feel about this market the bottom line is that there continues to be a good supply of long-side trading opportunities. Many of the stocks that performed well in 2003 have been correcting in recent weeks and offer low-risk entry points, unlike the DJIA.
Let's shake off the holiday lethargy and go to work. I'm ready to make this my best year ever and I hope you'll join me.
Futuurid: Naz0.61% SP0.41%
sB
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Rondam tegi ülevõtmispakkumise Estikole. 13,4eek.
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Nanogen (NGEN 12.78 +1.09, +9%) up sharply for second day in a row; hearing that some traders looking to short stock into this morning's gap higher have found that they have been beat to the punch, as many brokers have no shares to lend out; at last count.
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Kas keegi teab, mis juhtus RBAKQ -ga, et sellega täna ei kaubelda?
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RBAKD
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Mõned teemad tänaseks päevaks:
- Lehman Bros tõstab täna hommikul Brocade (BRCD) reitingu Overweight peale varasema Equal-Weight asemel. Hinnasihiks $7.50 varasema $6 juurest. Varem soovitas BRCD aktsiaid tugevalt osta vaid üks analüütik 28st firmat katvast firmast.
- Sony rääkis investoritele, et tech toodete, eriti DVD seadmete ning PS2 müük USAs läheb väga hästi.
- Gateway (GTW) teatas eile õhtul, et neljanda kvartali kasum tuleb oodatust väiksem. See on PC-tootja jaoks juba neljas aasta, mil firma neljanda kvartali jaoks kasumihoiatuse on andnud. Peamiseks põhjuseks tugevnev konkurents. Dell (DELL) tundub tegevat seal puhast tööd.
- Wal-Mart (WMT), maailma suurim jaemüüja teatas eile õhtul, et ostab tagasi $7 miljardi eest oma aktsiaid. Ilmselt tunduvad need firma enda juhtkonna jaoks piisavalt odavad.
Mäletan, et mõne kuu eest kurtis Barronsis ka Warren Buffett, et ei taibanud õigel ajal firma aktsiaid osta.- Sirius Satellite (SIRI) on eelturul 4-5% miinuses. Põhjuseks Bear Stearnsi nupuke, milles analüütikud kommenteerivad sat. raadio firma $5 miljardi dollari suuruseks paisunud turuväärtust. Ühtegi põhjendust nad sellele ei ole leidnud.
- Varian Semi (VSEA) on täna hommikul 6-7% plussis. Firma sai Lehmani käest uue ja kõrgema reitingu. Lisaks sellele teatas firma, et tõstab oma käibe ja kasumiprongoose neljandaks kvartaliks. Jälgige väiksemat konkurenti, milleks on Axcelis (ACLS).
- Gary B. Smith:
- RevShark:
Any way you measure it, yesterday was a wildly successful day for the markets. Over 1,000 stocks hit new 12-month highs, strength was broad and volume huge. The buyers wanted in and they were willing to pay up to be in.
When the buyers are this aggressive we have to assume that they will continue to stay that way until they have good reason not to. That means that buyers are likely to pounce on any pullbacks or dips. We have to be very careful about anticipating a sudden end to this rally. Momentum this strong doesn't usually end without some warning.
Market observers like to talk about the lessons we should have learned from the bubble days back in 1999 and 2000. Usually the focus is on how wild expectations don't last forever and how dangerous it can be to chase the market when it is flying. The lesson that they don't discuss is how much money can be made in the market when folks are irrational and the indices go parabolic.
You have to have a method to hold on to those gains but being too cautious too early can cost you big. Irrational markets cut both way. They can be very dangerous but they also offer some great opportunities for profit.
Lots of folks are arguing that the current market is just an echo bubble destined to burst and leave the late arriving bulls with some painful losses once again. The key is to not be one of the true believers who hold on even when warning signs appear. The folks who believe that the market has no reason not to continue to go straight up and are prepared to buy and hold will be the ones who eventually bear the brunt of Mr. Market's wrath.
Enjoy this market frenzy while it lasts but maintain some skepticism: It isn't different this time. At some point we will have a very nasty correction. I guarantee it. But that doesn't mean we should grumble about the current euphoria and sit on our hands and do nothing when there aren't any signs of an imminent breakdown. When the market cracks there will be warning signs and we have to be careful about not ignoring them when they appear.
The most difficult thing about this market right now is deciding to what extent you are willing to chase strong stocks. Despite the huge number of stocks breaking out and hitting new highs, so many of them moved so far so fast that low-risk entry points are difficult. I did some buying yesterday but I wasn't feeling as optimistic about it as I would have liked. Like many folks I've had a good run and I'm probably inclined to be a bit more defensive with my profits than I was a few weeks ago.
The healthiest thing the market could do at this point is rest or pull back a bit but to some degree that is simply wishful thinking. The market seldom does what is best for investors and I would not be surprised to see this rally continue this week. Clearly the indices are extended but we have Big Mo at work and he deserves plenty of respect.
In the early going we have a flat start to the day. Overseas market are mixed. The dollar is weak again and gold continues to ramp.
The big question on my mind right now is whether we are seeing a gush of liquidity generated by the start of the new year or whether we are in for this rally to go further than our wildest expectations. I don't know the answer so I'll keep my stops tight and respect the momentum until it disappears.
Futuurid: Naz-0.10% SP-0.18%sB
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10:57 Dollar rebounds intraday amid market chatter
Hearing a couple rumors in the market that would account for the intraday reversal in the Dollar. First is that George Soros is a heavy seller of Euros today. Second is chatter that the ECB is stepping in with Euro sells in attempt to suppress the strength of the Euro, and its negative competitive implications.
FWIW,
sB
