Börsipäev 12 - 13. jaanuar
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Mõned teemad tänaseks päevaks:
- CSFB analüütikud tõstavad täna hommikul ravimitootja Bristol-Myersi (BMY) aktsiate reitingu Neutraalse peale varasema Underperform peale. Nende arvates on aktsiad olenemata geneeriliste ravimite pealetulekust odavalt hinnatud ning väärivad varasema $26 hinnasihi asemel $31 hinnasihti. Uus elavnemine firma tulemustes peaks toimuma 2006. aastal.
BMY on LHV Pro valik.
- Ka langetab CSFB USA ühe suurima ravimitootja Merck (MRK)-i aktsiate reitingu varasema Neutraalse pealt Underperform peale. Aktsiad on viimase kuuga põhjast 20% tõusnud ning analüütikute arvates on edasi ülesliikumine vägagi raskendatud. Probleemid nii geneerikute kui ka alles turule tulevate ravimitega lubavad hinnasihiks vaid $49.
- Tundub, et Euroopas on puhkemas uus skandaal. Nimelt maailma suurim tööotsingufirma Adecco SA (ADO) teatas, et ei saa 2003. aasta tulemusi investoritele näidata, kuna on tekkinud kahtlused nende õigsuses. Probleemid on seotud eelkõige firma USAs asuvate operatsioonidega.
See võib tekitada müügihuvi ka firma USA konkurentide hulgas nagu näiteks
RHT, MAN, KELYA, HEW, LRW, SFN, GVHR, HHGP, RECN ja MNST.- Sirius Satellite (SIRI) on täna hommikul Barronsi karudest kolmunistide käppade vahel.
Firma eesmärgiks on 2004. aasta lõpuks omada 860 000 klienti. Praeguse ligemale $4 miljardi suuruse turukapitalisatsiooni juures maksavad investorid ühe kliendi eest siis umbes $17 000. Kui arvestada, et klient maksab ühe kuu teenuse eest $12.95, siis kulub ühe kliendi "tasumiseks" 110 aastat. See on kaks korda enam kui konkurendi XMSR-i puhul. Tundub, et SIRI aktsiatest on veel rohkem õhku kui esmapilgul tundub. Samas tundub ka, et karud on lõksus.- Tänase hommiku suurimaks tõusjaks on Dendreon (DNDN), mis teatas, et nende eesnäärmevähki raviv ravimikandidaat näitas III faasi vahekatsetes suurepäraseid tulemusi. Olen varem proovinud aktsiat suurte tõusude peale lühikeseks müüa, kuid siiani on see lõppenud kaotustega.
- Gary B. Smith:
- ReVShark:We have started 2004 with quite a bang. Many market participants have some nice-sized gains to start the year. The most important thing for traders now is to hold on to those gains and find ways for continued success as the market becomes less accommodating.
The beginning of a new year is often helped by a burst of liquidity as folks put money into retirement plans and new investments. The inflow of new capital certainly helped propelled the market higher in the first six days of trading in 2004. However, the fast move left us quite extended and vulnerable to a pullback after the weak jobs data on Friday. The jobs report provided a convenient excuse for traders to lock in some of their recent profits. There are some very big gains to protect. If the markets stay under pressure for any amount of time, downward momentum is likely to build fairly fast as gains are locked in.
This week is going to be especially tricky because of the kickoff of earnings reports. The first major reports come Wednesday after the close when Intel (INTC:Nasdaq) and Yahoo! (YHOO:Nasdaq) report. The big question is whether this market will stay extended and invite a sell-the-news reaction. Already this morning Goldman Sachs has comments out that it expects the Intel report to be at least in line and possibly better than expected. It is raising the bar and that increases the chances of a disappointment. I certainly would not want to hold Intel into earnings after those comments.
Technically the major indices are still overbought. They aren't bearish but they need to digest recent gains. They can do this through a pullback, or consolidating and basing action. I certainly would not say that the rally that began back in March is doomed, but we need a rest, and the recent parabolic action is going to make it tough for continued upside.
One of the things that makes this market particularly difficult to time right now is the aggressive dip buyers. On Friday we saw a great example of what can happen when the dip buyers become active. The market sold off in the morning on the jobs numbers but the dip buyers stepped up and took the Nasdaq green by midday. The market rolled over again into the close but the shorts who jumped on the morning weakness found themselves being painfully squeezed for a while.
A lot of fund managers already find themselves lagging their benchmark indices and they are going to be inclined to jump on pullbacks and weakness in the hope of catching up. It is only after they are burned a couple times that the dip buyers lose their enthusiasm.
One of the most interesting aspects of this market right now is that although the indices look vulnerable to a pullback, there are quite a few individual stocks with attractive long-side setups. Many of the tech and momentum stocks that lagged the overall market in the final weeks of 2003 are now set up nicely for breakouts to new highs. The best-looking stocks are many of the old-time momentum favorites and sectors.
So we have a whole slew of crosscurrents to consider this week: earnings, extended indices, pockets of good momentum, performance anxiety among fund managers and high levels of liquidity. No one every said this was easy.
In the early going we have a slightly positive open shaping up. Overseas markets were a bit shaky overnight. There is another case of SARS in China. Gold and oil are trading up and the dollar continues its struggles.
Futuurid: Naz0.23% SP0.22%
sB -
Mõned teemad tänaseks päevaks:
- Lehman tõstab täna hommikul oma USA Wireless sektori reitingu varasema Neutraalse peale Positiivse peale. Uued ja kõrgemad hinnasihid saavad: NXTL, AWE, PCS, AT ja USM. Nende arvates on konsolideerumine sektoris väga tõenäoline. Olen kuulnud paljude turuosaliste poolt mainitavat just AWE-t kui võimalikku ülevõtmiskandidaati.
- SAP AG (SAP), Euroopa suurim tarkvaratootja teatas, et nende neljanda kvartali käive tuleb analüütikute ootustest veidi kõrgem. Siiski on aktsiad Euroopas -5%, kuna ootused olid suuremad. Aktsiad olid enne uudist kiiresti tõusnud, mida võib öelda praktiliselt kõigi tehnoloogiafirmade kohta. Ma usun, et kui täna tuleb languspäev, siis selle taga on just reaktsioon SAP-le.
- Thomas Weisel tõstab täna hommikul Apple Computeri (AAPL) reitingu Outperform peale varasema Peer Perform asemel. Nende arvates on valuatsioon soodne ning iPodi ära võib saada 2005. aastal juba $1 bln suuruseks.
Kas investorid tõesti tahavad maksta 8-9 miljardit firma eest, mille peamine kasum tuleb pangaarvetel olevatest rahakuhjadest ning mille peamiseks äriks on kujunemas online-muusika. Ma usun, et AAPL võib täna osutuda heaks lühikeseksmüügi kandidaadiks. Seda juhul kui pullid tulevad aktsiaid hommikul üles pushima.
- Smith Barney analüütikud kustutavad oma Fookusnimekirjast DoubleClicki (DCLK) aktsiad. Nende sõnul on nad aktsiate suhtes pikemas perspektiivis ikka veel positiivselt meelestatud, kuid 45% tõus alates Novembrist on veidi liiast. Asemele tuleb Westwood One (WON).
- E*trade (ET) kaupleb täna hommikul 4-5% plussis, kuna liiguvad kuuldused, et TD Waterhouse on firmat ostmas. Hinnaks $6.3 miljardit, mis on kõrgem praegusest $4.9 miljardilisest turuväärtusest.
- Gary B. Smith:
- RevShark:
Boldness has definitely been the way to go in the recent market. There have been good reasons to be cautious as the indices become increasingly overbought, but there also have been good reasons to be very aggressive as powerful momentum continues to run. The bold traders who have chased strength and not been unduly concerned about a pullback have been the big winners recently.
That doesn't mean that we can continue to act boldly without concern. Each day we have to consider whether the potential upside is great enough to justify taking the risk of being caught in a pullback or reversal. Generally it doesn't pay to be overly anticipatory. The big money is made by respecting the trend and not fighting the momentum. However, there are times when it becomes clear that we need to be increasingly cautious. That doesn't mean we sell everything and plan for the end of the world: It means we develop a heightened awareness for the dangers that lurk and are ready to amend our plans as needed.
The major issue we need to watch right now is the psychology that exists going into earnings reports. The chances of profit-taking kicking in as earnings reports hit is increasing as optimism grows and the indices continue to move parabolically. There is nothing particularly mysterious about the sell-the-news phenomenon. Highly anticipated positive news is priced in before it actually occurs so when the news hits there is no upside left and the prudent thing to do is take profits.
The first big earnings reports hit tomorrow night when Intel (INTC:Nasdaq) and Yahoo! (YHOO:Nasdaq) report. Those reports are likely to be the catalyst for the next major move in this market. Will in-line reports be sufficient to move these stocks higher? How about if they beat by a few cents? What expectations does the market have? Are there folks waiting on the sidelines to buy if the reports are solid?
For now we have to respect the momentum that is out there. There are lots of individual stocks making big, impressive moves. The new-highs list is still booming and as we saw yesterday the buyers were happy to chase things higher. The way to make big money right now is on the long side.
We have a difficult balancing act. We don't want to be too cautious and pass up high-potential long side opportunities, but we also need to be very aware of the dangers that lurk as earnings season unfolds. We are likely to see some wild action in the days ahead.
My game plan remains the same. I'm still aggressively trading on the long side while slowly averaging into some index shorts. I feel confident that a strong pullback is on the horizon but I'm not willing to pass up the good long-side opportunities that still exist.
Once again we have a fairly benign start to the day. The key lately has been the closing hour; the buyers have done a good job of stepping up and closing us at the highs.
Overseas markets were generally positive overnight. Oil is trading up, gold is down and the dollar is mixed.
Futuurid: Naz-0.1% SP-0.06%
sB -
Apple (AAPL) sulamine toimis päris hästi. Esimene toetus @ 24.
sB -
Need kes täna Looksmarti (LOOK) ostavad peaksid hoidma stopi $2 all.
sB -
LHV Pro klientidele - Bearingpoint (BE) on korralikus miinuses (-5%), kuna konkurent Accenture (ACN) avaldas oodatust viletsamad tulemused.
Raha on pärast sellist kiiret tõusu aktsiast välja tulemas, seega ennustaksin languse jätku.
