Börsipäev 20.01
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Stora Enso (STERV) andis kasumihoiatuse, neljanda kvartali kasum on poole väiksem oodatust.
Aktsia 4% miinuses.
Oodatust väiksema kasumi põhjustas dollari nõrkus, Euroopast väljaspool müüdava paberi marginaali langus, puhkuseperiood, streik detsembris, restruktureerimiskulud ja uute tehaste (investeeringute) käivitamise hilinemine. -
Mõned teemad tänaseks päevaks:
- JDS Uniphase (JDSU) aktsiad kauplevad täna hommikul eelturul 15-20% reedesest sulgemishinnast kõrgemal. Ühtegi põhjust ma sellele tõusule ei tea. Turul liiguvad jutud, et selle tagasi on ühe Kanada ajalehe positiivne artikkel, kuid siiani pole suutnud ma seda leida.
Teine võimalus on see, et tegemist on hiilastliku short-squeeziga, kus kasutati ära Kanada börsi väiksemat likviidsust. Aktsiad aeti seal üles lootuses, et tõus jätkub ka USAs. Teatavasti olid USA turud esmaspäeval ju suletud.
- Ameritrade (AMTD) kaupleb täna 50-60 senti sulgemishinnast kõrgemal, kuna tuli välja tulemustega, mis ületasid turuosaliste ootusi. Prognoosivahemik jäi ikka veel väga laiaks. Teise põhjusena tõusu taga on ilmselt uudis selle kohta, et TD ning E*trade (ET) ühinemine jääb ära. Ülevõtmiskandidaadiks tõuseb seega jällegi AMTD.
- SoundView analüütikud tõstavad täna hommikul AMD (AMD) aktsiate reitingu Neutraalse pealt Outperform peale. Ma ei ole analüüsi veel lugenud aga valuatsiooni peale ilmselt see upgreid ei tulnud.
- Wachovia tõstab nii Norteli (NT) kui ka Lucenti (LU) reitingu Underperform pealt Outperform peale. Sellise hüppe taga on analüütikute ootus, et aktsiate hinnad võiksid veel 25% tõusta. See kõlab juba päris naljakana ning väljendab jällegi mulliaegset mentaliteeti.
- Tenet Healthcare (THC) kaupleb täna 4-5% sulgemishinnast kõrgemal, kuna Lehman Brothers tõstab aktsiate reitingu varasema Underweight pealt Equal Weight peale. Uueks hinnasihiks $14 asemel $22. Nende arvates võiks THC 2005. aastal teenida 1.2 dollarit kasumit aktsia kohta.
Tegemist on LHV Pro valikuga.
- Gary B. Smith:
- RevShark:
The continuing strength of this market has created a particularly difficult decision for many investors. If you want to enjoy the immense power of momentum you have to step up and buy stocks that are extended, expensive or both. Playing it safe and looking for value or unextended stocks is not the way to make money when the bulls are snorting and pawing at the ground preparing for another run.
If you want to profit from the current market you have to play the momentum game. The potential profits are very big if things continue to run, but the danger of being caught in a quick and powerful reversal is also very high. It can make for a very rewarding trading environment but we have to stay more vigilant than ever for signs of reversals and potential cracks in this powerful momentum.
Going into earnings season I felt that the dangers of a sell-the-news reaction were particularly high. We had a brief taste of it when Intel (INTC:Nasdaq) and Yahoo! (YHOO:Nasdaq) reported but it didn't last for long. On Friday the optical and networking stocks, led by Juniper (JNPR:Nasdaq), beat even the already optimistic expectations. We are seeing few signs of a sell-the-news reaction. The folks looking for even brief weakness were caught off guard once again and many chased the market as it hit new highs.
The dangers of a sell-the-news reaction still exist but there is enough excitement about earnings and sufficient liquidity and momentum to delay it for now.
That brings us to the start of a new week and a flood of earnings reports. The market mood is extremely positive and the question to consider is whether earnings will be good enough to sustain steady buying.
The biggest difficulty for risk-adverse traders is that there are a huge number of extended charts with little nearby support. That doesn't mean they won't continue to go up if money continues to pour into the market; it just makes entry points much more risky. On the other hand, chasing a stock like Juniper that gapped up $5 on Friday was a profitable strategy.
I continue to be aggressive with individual trades and will give this powerful momentum great respect but I am increasingly concerned about how extended the major indices are. We badly need some sort of pause that will allow gains to be digested.
I have reduced my index hedges the last couple of days but will look at building them back up rather quickly into strength. I'm going to keep stops tight and am shortening my time horizon on my long-side trades. It is earnings season so that means we will have a lot of individual stocks moving without regard to the broader market. There will continue to be many pockets of opportunity, primarily on the long side. It is a very tricky environment but the rewards are particularly great if you can successfully navigate the cross-currents and catch momentum.
We have some solid optimism to kick off the week. Earnings reports continue to look good. Asian markets were strong and European markets mixed as the dollar rallied.
We have a very busy week in front of us. The opportunities are out there if you play the game. Good luck and go get 'em.
Futuurid: Naz0.48% SP0.37%
sB
It's just a job. Grass grows, birds fly, waves pound the sand. I just beat people up
--Muhammad Ali
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Rumorid on, et Alcatel võtab JDSU üle. they must be kidding, pärast sellist rallit :)
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CC rallib täna hästi, mulle meeldivad $ ...
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See JDSU on ikka imelik küll. mul lõppesid reedel (16.01) 1,5 aastat tagasi ostetud $5 callid väärtusetult, kui täna saaks juba nende eest korralikku raha. ma olin lossiga juba ammu arvestanud, kuid nüüd jääb ikka hinge kripeldama.
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EGHT: STM lowers stake to 2.08% from 6.41% -- Dow Jones
FWIW,
sB
