Börsipäev 21. jaanuar
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Mõned teemad tänaseks päevaks:
- Kõvakettatootjad Seagate (STX), Maxtor (MXO) ning Western Digital (WDC) kauplevad täna hommikul 10-20% sulgumishinnast allpool. Põhjuseks esimese tegija kasumihoiatus. Tundub, et tegemist on liiga tugeva konkurentsiga sektoris, mis ei luba ASP (average selling price)-l eriti tõusta.
Seagate kasumihoiatusega said pihta ka komponentide tootjad nagu MRVL, HTCH ning KOMG.
- RF Mirco Devices (RFMD) kukkus pea 15% peale seda, kui firma prognoosid ei vastanud turuosaliste ootustele. Ilmselt tuginesid ootused Nokia (NOK) positiivsele kasumihoiatusele paari nädala eest.
- Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) tuli välja tulemustega, mis ületasid paljude turuosaliste ootusi. Käive kasvas 26% võrreldes eelmise aastaga ning ületas ootusi 200 miljoni dollari võrra. Prognoosid olid turuosaliste arvates veidi lahjemad, kuna firma ennustas 2004. aasta esimeseks kvartaliks pisikest sesoonset käibelangust. Tulemuseks 3% suurune miinus langus.
- Pisike VoIP-aktsia 8X8 (EGHT) teatas, et kaebab Ericssoni (ERICY) kohtusse, kuna viimane rikub EGHT-i kahte tehnoloogiapatenti.
- Six Flags (PKS) valmistub järmgist vastupanu vallutama. Kui $8 tase murdub, peaks jällegi 1 pt. jagu tõusuruumi olema. Pikem hinnasiht LHV Pro all $10-12.
- E*trade (ET) esineb täna hommikul üllatavalt lahjade tulemustega. Neljanda kvartali käive oli $382 mln, mis on mõnevõrra madalam $400 mln konsensusest. Samas kinnitas dirma 2004. aasta käibe-ja kasumiprognoose. Eile avaldas oma tulemused konkurent Ameritrade (AMTD).
- Gary B. Smith:
- RevShark:
There are times when the market can be remarkably deceptive. A cursory glance at the major indices would lead one to think that it was a rather dark and dreary day on Wall Street, when the truth was that there was plenty of strong action and many shining stars.
The DJIA was down over 70 points and the S&P 500 was in negative territory but stocks that were up on the day exceeded those that were down by nearly 2 to 1. There were over a 1,000 stocks hitting new 12-month highs and many momentum stocks made big moves. The IBD 100 Index of momentum stocks was up 3.2%, which is equivalent to about 330 points in the DJIA.
The lesson to be learned is that momentum is not always reflected in the major indices. It still is running hot and heavy but not in the big-name stocks that dominate the indices. If you want to make some money in this environment you need to be selective with your stock picking, focus on smaller-caps and play the momentum game. This is not a market where "value" strategies are paying off. This is a time where there is too much cash chasing too few stocks. The end result is that there is a good supply of big movers but you can't be shy about chasing strength or too hung up on valuation.
Earnings reports further add to the stealth action in the market. There are pockets of disappointments as well as some positive surprises. Those stocks are not influenced much by the overall market trends. In situations where the expectations were too high, the stocks sell off badly; in the situations where expectations were low, the stocks will act well. We haven't seen any strong tendency one way or the other yet but it is still early in the earnings season. The possibility of a sell-the-news tendency is still very high.
The dilemma of this market is quite obvious. We have extended stocks and indices but very powerful momentum. How much further can this market run given the big move we have already made? Are the buyers creating an echo of the bubble that we saw back in 2000? Should we anticipate a sudden end to this extremely strong action? We have been hearing about how expensive and extended this market is for months now but all those warnings have done is cost us money.
Investors who are too quick to anticipate reversals often end up losing far more money than they would have lost if they actually were caught in a reversal. If you are overly anticipatory it is quite easy to forego many weeks of big gains, while actually being caught in a reversal would only cost you several days of gains if you have a disciplined exit strategy. It is human nature to want to try to catch the top in this market but that thinking causes you to constantly err on the side of being way too early.
That doesn't mean we shouldn't be cautious. Plenty of danger is lurking about. Earnings season can easily provide a catalyst for some sharp pullbacks. It is particularly important to have a solid stop-loss strategy in place. You will be taken out of some good stocks if you are too quick to dump them on a pullback, but downside momentum can build very fast when a recent winner begins to crack. Don't be shy about locking in profits when things look shaky. You can always re-buy if you are wrong.
To be successful in the current market you need to play the momentum game but you have to be increasingly selective with your stock picks and follow some strict money management rules. The lesson from the bubble days of 2000 is that some big money can be made when the market is in a frenzy but you have to play good defense to hold on to those gains when things start to slip. And slip they will at some point.
In the early going this morning we have very mixed action as earnings reports continue to roll in. Asian market were weak in Japan and strong in Hong Kong. They are closed for the rest of the week for the new year celebration. Europe was mixed with strength in oils and weakness in technology stocks. The dollar is weak and gold is pulling back after a spike up yesterday.
Careful stock selection will be the key today. The indices are in a vulnerable place but there still is plenty of hot money looking for a place to go. Be careful out there.
Futuurid: Naz-0.52% SP-0.09%
sB
I did not have sex with that woman
--William J. Clinton
