Börsipäev 29. jaanuar - E-Loani (EELN) juht lahkub - Investeerimine - Foorum

Mõned teemad tänaseks päevaks:

- E-Loan (EELN) avaldas oma kauaoodatud kvartalitulemused, mis jäid turuosaliste ootustele alla. Null senti kasumit aktsia kohta oli küll oodatud, kuid käive jäi ligemale 20% firma enda prognoosidele alla. 2004. aastaks prognoosis firma 18 senti puhaskasumit aktsia kohta (maksueelne), mis on madalam number võrreldes ühe analüütiku prognoosist koosnevast $0.21 konsensustest.

Ilmselt on siiski kõige suuremaks uudiseks see, et firma praegune tegevjuht (CEO) lahkub firmast. Tegemist on firma ühe peamise asutajaga. Ühelt poolt investorite jaoks selgelt negatiivne otsus, teiselt poolt valab ilmselt õli ülevõtmisjuttude tulle. Mäletatavasti liikusid mõne päeva eest turul kuulujutud, et Wells Fargo on firmat ostmas.

Mäletatavasti andis nädala eest kasumihoiatuse ka E-Loani (EELN) kõige lähem noteeritud konkurent NetBank (NTBK). Hetkel kauplevad EELN-i aktsiad veidi allpool $3 taset.

Lootsin kuulda firmalt mingisuguseid julgustavaid sõnu tuleviku kohta, kuid tänasest pressiteatatest on neid küll üpris raske välja lugeda. Tõe huvides peab allakirjutanu märkima, et oli antud aktsias eelturul lühiajaliselt ka lühikeses positsioonis.

- Black & Decker (BDK) avaldas oma neljanda kvartali tulemused, mis ootuspäraselt ületasid konsensusootusi. Lisaks sellele tõstis firma oma 2004. aasta kasumiprognoosi kõrgemale analüütikute keskmisest. Aktsiad on eelturul 1.5 pt plussis. LHV Pro valik.

- Viad Corporation (VVI) avaldas oma kvartalitulemused, mis ületasid analüütikute ootusi päris märkimisväärselt. Siiski ei pruugi firma täna ostjajid leida, kuna 2004. aasta prognoosid jäid analüütikute konsensusele veidi alla. LHV Pro valik.

- Bristol Myers (BMY) avaldas oma neljanda kvartali tulemused, mis kasumi osas jäid ootustele veidi alla, kuid käive osas ületasid neid. Firma 2004. aasta kasumiprognoos on $1.50-1.55 aktsia kohta, mis on veidi madalam $1.63 konsensusest. Aktsia on eelturul paar protsenti miinuses. LHV Pro valik.

- Initial Claims 342K vs 340K consensus; Employment cost index 0.7% vs 0.9% consensus. Turu reaktsioon kergelt negatiivne.

- JDS Uniphase (JDSU) avaldas eile õhtul tulemused, mis vastasid turuosaliste ootustele. Ka järgmise kvartali kahjumiprognoos oli konsensuse piires. Aktsiad kukkusid järelturul selle reaktsioonina 5%, kuid on täna hommikul veidi plussis, kuna Merrill Lynch analüütikud tõstsid firma aktsiate reitingu Hoia peale varasema Müü pealt.

Need kes firma peale tulemusi toimunud konverentsi kuulasid, teadsid rääkida, et firma juhtkond tõi ühe peamise murena välja selle, et kas suudetakse klientide tellimusi täita. See erineb varasemate aastate jutust päris märkimisväärselt.

- Six Flags (PKS) on paljudele viimasel ajal muret tekitanud. Eilse kukkumise taga ei ole minu andmetel ühtegi uudist ega isegi mitte kuulujuttu. Hetkel aktsiad toetuste peal. LHV Pro valik:

- Gary B. Smith:

- RevShark:

With the booming economy everyone knew that higher interest rates where just a matter of time. Yesterday the FOMC forced us to more fully contemplate the possibility by rewriting their strategy statement. They are obviously paving the way for making interest rates happen at some future date, and are providing some sort of notice that the time is closer than what it had been.

The close-minded perma-bulls who think the market has to go up every day are sputtering this morning about how foolish it is for the market to react to something that was certain to occur anyway. They complain that everyone knew rates would rise, so why should the market sell off?

What they fail to realize is that being aware that something will occur at some future time and pricing it in are two very different matters. The possibility of rate hikes at some vague future time has not caused investors to adjust their valuation perception of the current market. It was something they would consider only when the threat became more real. Yesterday it became more real, and that is why the market reacted the way it did.

Furthermore, with the market technically extended we were particularly vulnerable to a sharp selloff if an appropriate excuse materialized. The prospect of interest rate hikes was an ideal catalyst for investors to lock in recent profits and raise cash. There are some big gains to protect, and with earnings season winding down the FOMC made a very convenient excuse for some defensive moves.

The question is wither we goest now? Do interest rate concerns continue to weigh on the market? Does profit-taking lead to further downward momentum? Does the market shrug off the interest rate matters and focus on the FOMC's statement that it is staying "patient"? Do the dip buyers and new cash inflows quickly drive this market back up?

There are lots of possibilities and that will make for an interesting trading environment. I have to admit I was pleased to see yesterday's action simply because the market is more interesting to trade and provides more opportunities if it's shaken up now and then.

A quick spike down like yesterday's almost always leads to some sort of bounce back up. The issue of concern for us is how far does it go and how long does it last? Throughout this rally the market has had a tendency to make V-shaped recoveries. We have consistently bounced quickly back up and made new highs in very short order. That certainly could occur again, but it isn't the way to bet. V-shaped bounces are the exception, not the rule. Now with the catalyst of earnings season over and a very extended market, the odds of such a bounce are even less.

Continued below

Watch for a Bounce, but Don't Be Too Trusting, Part 2
1/29/04 08:32 AM ET

One thing that these sorts of downward spikes do is make overhead resistance very clear. Take a look at the chart of the Nasdaq. You'll see that the area around 2120 was support for the index over the past week or so. That support level now becomes resistance. A move back through 2120 would be bullish, but you can bet the bears will be eyeing that area to put on new shorts.

The bad news for the Nasdaq is that there really is no nearby support on the chart. We went straight up starting in mid-December, and the first area of any significant support is the 2000 level, which coincidentally is also almost exactly where the 50-day simple moving average is.

So look for some sort of bounce, but don't be too trusting. We did some damage yesterday and the bulls may not be able to recover as quickly as they have so often over the last 10 months.

In the early going we have a positive bias. As you might expect, the bulls are finding lots of good reasons to dismiss the FOMC's actions. They may be right in doing so, but for now we need to respect the technical patterns and proceed with extreme caution.

Overseas markets were down across the board in sympathy with the action in the U.S. yesterday. The dollar initially reacted well to the interest rate news, but that didn't last for long. Gold took a thumping on the rate news as well and is back below the $410 mark. That group needs to find support quickly to prevent technical selling.

I moved heavily to cash yesterday and am not inclined to quickly load back up. Stock selection is going to be much more important now as the market environment becomes more mixed.

Futuurid: Naz0.33% SP0.15%

sB

Börsipäev 29. jaanuar - E-Loani (EELN) juht lahkub

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