Börsipäev 30. jaanuar - Nortel vs karud
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Mõned teemad tänaseks päevaks:
- Nortel (NT) tuli välja tulemustega, mis ületasid isegi pullidest analüütikute ootusi. Pihuks ja põrmuks tehti loomulikult karud, kes viimaste päevade kukkumisega julgemaks olid muuutunud. Vaadates graafikut, asub esimene tõsine vastupanu alles $9 juures, kuhu nägin ka osade analüütikute hinnasihid kerkimas.
- Lexar Media (LEXR) oli eile õhtu suurimaks kukkujaks. 2004. aasta kasumiprognoos jäi 10% võrra prognoosidele alla. Tulemuseks -20%. Konkurendid SNDK ning FLSH kukkusid kaasa. Julged võivad seda kukkuvat nuga püüdma minna. Mina täna teiega ei liitu.
- Biotech võib täna sattuda surve alla. New York Times kirjutab, et Medicare soovib kärpida nende poolt eraldatavaid summasid vähiravimite eest tasumisel. Biogen Idec (BIIB) ning Corixa (CRXA) ravimid olid mainitud esimestena. (disclaimer: short BIIB)
- JP Morgan tõstab Yahoo (YHOO) reitingu Overweight peale varasema Neutraalse asemel. Analüütikud peavad viimase aja nõrkust ostuvõimaluseks. Hinnasihiks $56.
- First Albany alustab Warnaco (WRNC) katmist Osta reitingu ning $22 hinnasihiga. Tuttav aktsia ka LHV Pro klientidele. Nende arvates on tegemist huvitava investeerimisvõimalusega, millel leidub mitmeid hinda tõstvaid katalüsaatoreid järgmise 6-9 kuu jooksul.
- New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) uus juht kaalub WSJ artikli järgi üleminemist elektroonilisele kauplemisele. NITE; INGP võimalikud kasusaajad.
- First Albany langetab Bristol Myersi (BMY) reitingu Underperform peale varasema Neutraalse pealt. Põhjus pole ilmselt kellelegi üllatuseks: geneerikud. Ilmselt ei oma see reitingumuutus erilist mõju aktsiate liikumisele, sest kõik turuosalised on probleemidest enam kui teadlikud.
- GDP adv 4.0% vs 5.0% consensus. Turu reaktsioon kergelt negatiivne.
- Tenet Healthcare (THC) sai üle kahe päeva kestnud reitingualanduste järel ka oma esimese reitingu tõstmise. Deutche Bank tõstis reitingu Müü peale Hoia peale. Hinnasihiks siiski vaid $12.
- Gary B. Smith:
- Cody Willard:
Two weeks ago yesterday, Juniper Networks (JNPR:Nasdaq) reported a very strong quarter that shocked most analysts and investors. I happened to sub in for Rev Shark the next day and wrote that "telecom plays will be all the rage this morning." That Friday, telecom stocks put in their single best day in four years.
Last night, Nortel (NT:NYSE) reported a very strong quarter that shocked most analysts and investors. And I think once again that telecom plays will be all the rage this morning! As I've written before, I think we're in the early phases of a major upswing in the teleconomic cycle, and most telecom equipment and component stocks will be much higher this time next year. Although the pessimism and cynicism on most of Wall Street about that rebound are thick, that's a good thing, as it keeps the shorts in and builds a great wall of worry for these stocks to climb. (Nortel still has 50 million shares short -- why, I ask you, why?)
On that day two weeks ago, aggressive momentum chasers were rewarded by buying the strong open in most telecom equipment and component stocks. I'd think a similar scenario will play out today, and I'm likely to nibble further on some names in the premarket. (I'll post some names when and if I do.) But as I noted yesterday in the Trading Ideas forum, I did a pretty good bit of buying yesterday when the market was hating these names again, so I won't be terribly aggressive.
It's important in that regard to note that the market is obviously in a very different place than it was two weeks ago. I don't do any technical analysis at all, but common sense keeps me attuned to much of what charts are telling the technicians about the broader markets. From mid-December, momentum and beta were hot, and the tech indices were on a major tear. That made the charts quite extended with little resistance below them (according to my sources who follow that sort of thing). I simply knew that we'd seen tons of money reaching for exposure to telecom and other tech, and there just wasn't enough supply to meet all that demand.
Regardless, the markets and these stocks needed a healthy pullback to shake out some of the nervous momentum holders. We got that in spades, as most of the biggest telecom movers have pulled back some 20% to 30% in just the past week and a half. That's likely a great setup for most of these stocks to get their legs under them with a strong second wind to take them higher. It's a very different dynamic than the blow-off-top type of setup we had after Juniper's strong quarter. But I think the results will likely be similar.
I was so excited about the Nortel results and subbing in for Rev Shark that I didn't sleep more than a few hours last night, so I'm going to go get a second cup of coffee (maybe a latte, but don't tell my cowboy friends in New Mexico that)! I'll be back in just a bit with more.
Long JNPR common and puts
Futuurid: Naz0.20% SP0.14%sB
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Nt-d kaubeldakse praegu 8.05 juures +22%
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Bettie, PKS-i kaubeldakse 7.23 peal. Ehk saad anda hinnangu PKS-i kohta.
Tänud! -
Tundub, et vähemalt praegu põrkab koos ülejäänud turuga. Teist korda läbi 50 päeva toetuse mõtet pole lasta.
sB -
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Päeva parim call:
10:06 WIN tgt cut $1 from $8 in Prudential (7.29 -1.80)
sB -
Päris hea tõus päeva kohta:
EYET EyeTech Pharmaceuticals $ 2000 1979 9,423.81% 300,
poleks paha osta 21$ ja müüa 2000$ -
EYET -- IPO opens for trading at $30.00 (31.35 +10.35)
sellist uudist näen mina ja ka graafik näitab sinnakanti. -
nasdaq.com näitab midagi muud
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mitmed teised allikad annavad siiski 32 kanti hinna (briefing, datek, jne)
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Genaera (GENR) arendab ka EyeTechi (EYET) laadset AMD ravimit ning low-level jutt liigub, et kuna EYET läheb nii hästi investoritele peale, siis GENR-i valuatsioon peaks ka sellest mingi boosti saama.
FWIW, mitte mingi soovitus,
sB
