Börsipäev 2. veebruar - Larry Ellison müüb aktsiaid
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Mõned teemas tänaseks päevaks:
- Tänase hommiku suurimaks liikujaks on ilmselt Take-Two (TTWO), mille aktsiad on 5-6% miinuses peale seda kui firma teatas täna hommikul kasumihoiatusest 2004. aastaks. Tegelikult algas lugu juba Reede hommikul, kui turuosalised märkasid, et firma pole väljastanud 10-K aruannet. Aktsiad kukkusid läbi kogu päeva ning õhtul teatas firma, et jääb aastaaruandega hiljaks. Põhjusena toodi regulatoorse laadiga probleemid. Kasumihoiatuse taga on siiski oodatust kehvem müük Xboxi-ga seotud mängude seas.
Minu enda jaoks on oluliseks õppetunniks see, kuidas osad turuosalised firmade 10-K aruannete plaane jälgivad. Nad teavad väga täpselt, millal ühel või teisel firmal aruanne välja tuleb, ning juba mõnetunnise hilinemise järel on kuulujutud kiired leima. Igaüks teeb omad järeldused.
- Red Hat (RHAT) on täna hommikul karudest Barronsi kolumnistide küüniste vahel. $20 juures kauplevad aktsiad 105x järgmise finantsaasta ning 19x 2005. finantsaasta kasumit aktsia kohta. Merrill Lynch analüütikute sõnul peaks 2007. aasta tasulise Linuxi turg olema $400-800 mln. See tähendab, et praegu kaupleb RHAT turuväärtuse taseme juures, mis on enam kui 4x suurem kõige optimistlikumast turu suurusest 2007. aastal. Lisaks sellele tungib turule ka Novell (NOVL), kellelt oodatakse RHAT-i turuosa murendamist juba järgmise 12 kuu jooksul.
- Personal Income 0.2% vs 0.2% consensus; Personal Spending 0.4% vs 0.4% consensus
Turu reaktsioon kergelt positiivne.
- Deutsche Bank alandab Fordi (F) reitingu Müü peale varasema Hoia pealt. Nende arvates on firma prognoosid selgelt liiga kõrged ning lisaks sellele märgivad nad, et seoses FED-i nüüdseks juba oodatava intressimäärade tõstmisega on autoaktsiate tõusupotentsiaal märkimisväärselt kahanenud. Viimase kolme intressimäärade tõstmistsükli jooksul näitasid autoaktsiad kahel korral turu keskmistest madalamaid tootlusi.
- Oracle (ORCL) juht Larry Ellison ning finantsjuht Jeff Henley teatasid, et müüvad järgmise aasta jooksul 123 mln firma aktsiat. Põhjendus? Varade diversifitseerimine. Pärast müüki on Ellisonil ikka veel 1.23 miljardit Oracle aktsiat.
- Gary. B. Smith:
- ReVShark:
The ancient Greeks knew it and the Super Bowl has proven it often: The hardest part of triumph is repeating it. Despite a nasty dip to conclude the month of January, there were some nice profits for many traders. Momentum was strong, small-caps were hot, many moves were big and there were some nice pockets of opportunity such as telecom and networking. It was a good environment for active traders and many had strong results.
The important thing now is to learn from those victories and successes. It is tremendously easy to squander your advantages in the stock market. There is a tendency to think that what has been working will keep on working, which is seldom the case when it comes to dealing with Mr. Market. Like football, continued success generally means some new approaches.
The indices went for a long stretch without a solid pullback before the dip at the end of the month. We finally succumbed to some profit-taking, which now makes the environment a bit trickier, but also supplies us with more opportunities. Regardless of which way the market goes we should have some choppier trading in the days ahead, and that is a positive for traders with a shorter time frame.
We have had earnings reports and the seasonal inflow of new capital to keep this market running in recent months. Those factors are now starting to wind down. In addition, the recent economic data has been a bit softer than expected. The bottom line is that upside catalysts are diminishing and it is going to be tough to sustain heavy upside momentum in the days ahead.
Technically we also have a more problematic situation. Let's take a look at the S&P 500. We were riding a wave of tremendous momentum since mid-December until the FOMC handed the market a reason to take profits. We cracked hard and gave back nearly half of the recent move. The million dollar question is do we find support here and move back up, or is more downward pressure likely?
Continued below
Viewing This Open With Skepticism, Part 2
2/02/04 08:15 AM ET
I've pointed out numerous times over the last six months or so how inclined this market has been to making V-shaped recoveries. In almost all recent cases, the initial sharp pullback quickly ended and after a few days of flat action we moved straight back up and made new highs. This occurred in May, June, August, October and December.What is particularly interesting about this recent tendency is that the technical analysis textbooks will tell you that V-shaped bounces are the exception, not the rule. Markets are more likely to have a couple failed bounce attempts before finding the strength to move on to new highs. The fact that this market has ignored the conventional wisdom is probably the best proof of the high level of demand there is for stocks. Investors have wanted in this market for some time, so they pounced on pullbacks and created V-shaped bounces.
Is it different this time? Is this pullback like all the others we have seen since March and likely to quickly be forgotten as the dip buyers jump in and drive us to new highs? Perhaps, but it is a dangerous bet. A couple things are different this time. First and foremost, the move that began in mid-December was much stronger then earlier moves during this rally and some would say looks like a "blow-off" top. Throw in the fact that seasonality is winding down and there is a pretty good case that the move in January was a final frenzy of buying that will lead to a more difficult trading environment.
The technical levels are very clear right now. Downside support is last week's lows, and the upside resistance is the trading range near the highs that existed for most of January. For the S&P 500, that is about 1515 to 1560. My feel is that this time overhead resistance is going to be fairly formidable and we won't cut through it easily.
In the early going we have a positive mood. Semiconductors are leading the way on news that the SIA expects semiconductor sales to grow at pace nearing 20%. That is helping European markets, but Asia is struggling as concerns about bird flu dominate.
We still have quite a few earnings reports on the wires. The most notable will be Cisco (CSCO:Nasdaq), which is due Tuesday after the close. Watch that for a catalyst for our next big market move.
Will the Monday morning optimism last? Are the Patriot fans helping to produce a little early exuberance, and will a night of partying catch up with them?
Don't be too quick to trust this open.
Futuurid: Naz0.23% SP0.20%sB
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