Börsipäev 5 -6. veebruar

Mõned teemad tänaseks päevaks:

- Mitmed jaemüüjad on täna oma eelmise kuu müügitulemusi avaldamas. Nende hulgas hakkab silma mitmete tegijate oodatust märksa paremad tulemused. Üheks selliseks on näiteks Kristjani LHV Pro valik American Eagle Outfitters (AEOS), mille sames-store müük (enam kui 52 nädalat lahti olnud poed) oli oodatud 5% languse asemel ligemale 1% plussis. Lisaks sellele tõstis firma jooksva kvartali kasumiprognoosi. AEOS on eelturul 8% plussis.

- Maailma suurima jaemüüja Wal-Marti (WMT) jaanuari same-store müük tõsusi 5.7% võrreldes 4% ootusega. Lisaks selle teatas firma, et jooksva kvartali kasum tuleb oodatud vahemiku ülemises servas.

- Superconductorid (ülijuhid) on viimase paari päeva jooksul tõsise müügisurve alla sattunud. Eile andis kasumi-ja käibehoiatuse Superconductor Tech (SCON) ning täna hommikul tuli sarnase uudisega välja ka American Superconductor (AMSC). Kolmas kõige lähem tegija on Intermagnetics (IMGC).

- 08:30 Initial Claims 356k vs 340k consensus; Productivity 2.7% vs 3.0% consensus

Turu reaktsioon leebelt positiivne.

- Ivanhoe Mines (IVAN) on täna jällegi 5-6% plussis, kuna firma teatas, et on leidnud Californiast veidike nafatat.

"We believe that the discovery may be significant and will support further drilling." The well is a new pool discovery and is pumping to a sales facility at a rate of 42 barrels of 34 degree API gravity oil per day, with 58 Mcf per day of associated gas"

Ivanhoe juhid püüavad ennast lühikeseks müünud karudel aeg-ajalt elu kibedaks teha, kuid pikemas perspektiivis on firma aktsiad ikkagi liikumas $1 suunas.

- Paficif Growth alustab China.com (CHINA) katmist Overweight reitinguga. Aktsia on selle peale eelturul 3-4% plussis.

- Gary B. Smith:

- RevShark:

The market mood has turned dark. The upbeat attitude of investors that has helped propelled this market higher for nearly a year is quickly turning negative. The Nasdaq is down six of the last seven days and three of those times has sold off on higher volume. Breadth was particularly poor yesterday. The dip buyers have been burned several times and are now reluctant to jump in. There is severe technical damage and the bears are starting to feel more confident about some sustained downside for the first time in many months.

Despite the gloominess, we haven't seen the intensity of selling that leads to a bottom and a sustainable bounce. The put/call ratio has not spiked up much, which means there are still plenty of optimistic call buyers out there. The DJIA held up relatively well yesterday, which indicates we may simply be seeing a rotational correction rather than a flight from equities over all.

The most worrisome problem for the bulls is that this pullback is viewed by so many as being a great buying opportunity rather than the start of a much bigger correction. The conservative bulls who don't like to chase momentum and have been frustrated by the parabolic action of the recent rally are still out there with cash in hand. They have wanted better prices and they are now finally getting them. The question is, do they have enough buying power and conviction to change the market tone, and if they do how long will it last?

One of the most interesting tendencies of the stock market is for the prevailing mood to build over time until it eventually reaches unsustainable levels. Then in a blink of an eye the tide turns and momentum begins to build in the other direction. It is easy to observe this after the fact but it is extremely hard to time in advance. Momentum has a tendency to last far longer than you think possible. Reasonableness is not the appropriate measuring stick when dealing with human emotion.

So the question we have to ponder this morning is whether the negative momentum will continue to build. We have now fallen so fast that we are oversold and the likelihood of a bounce is fairly high. But if and when we bounce, will the sellers rush in and push us down again? Has this market been sufficiently broken so that the bulls will be unable to regain upside traction? Are we shifting to a sell-the-rallies environment from a buy-the-dip approach?

The biggest problem for the bulls is that with earnings season winding down and seasonal cash inflows slowing, there are few major potential positive catalysts. The bulls have their fingers crossed that the monthly employment report that is due tomorrow morning will put things back on track. Last month's report was disappointing but the optimists are hoping that the new report will finally show that economic growth is translating into jobs.

We have the weekly unemployment report due this morning but the big one will be the monthly report tomorrow. Anticipation of that report is going to be our primary market driver today. We should se plenty of "positioning" action today, which will likely hold the market fairly steady.

In the early going we are gearing up for a bounce. Overseas markets are mixed to slightly positive. Retailers are posting their same-store sales reports this morning and so far look pretty good with WalMart (WMT:NYSE) leading the way with better-than-expected numbers.

Proceed with caution. This environment is the trickiest we've had so far this year. The best course of action while we wait for clarity is to protect your capital.

Good luck and go get 'em.

No positions in stock mentioned

Futuurid: Naz0.62% SP0.30%

sB

"..Teiste nimed libisesid Dysonil kõrvust mööda, ja ta ei saanud ka teada, millega nad tegelevad, peale kompanii dzinni joomise, milles nad ilmutasid usaldustäratavat vilumust. Dyson oletas, et nad on kompanii direktorid, pankurid ning finantstegelased; neil kõigil oli tagasihoidliku aususe ja inimväärikuse ilme, mida Dysoni kogemust mööda omandatakse ainult igapäevases kokkupuutes teistele inimestele kuuluvate ülisuurte rahasummadega.."

- Hommikupooliku lõpu poole
Michael Frayn

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