Börsipäev 18. veebruar
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- Valuutaturgudel tehti päeva alguses rekord eur/dollari kursiga, üks euro maksis päeva alguses 1.293 dollarit. USA turgude avanemise eel on dollar tugevnenud 1.286 usd/eur juurde.
- Aktsiaturgude algne optimism eelturul sai löögi majademüügi statistika avaldamisel. Uute majade ehituste arv vähenes jaanuaris 8%, aasta peale viiduna 1.9 miljonit.
- Mäluseadmete tootja Rambus (RMBS) aktsiat kergitas teade, et trustide vastase seaduse põhjal esitatud süüdistus on tagasi lükatud. Aktsia on eelturul üle 40% plussis. -Ka Intel (INTC) on kauplejate huviorbiidis. Protsessorite tootja teatas 64 bitiste protsessorite tarnimist. AMD tuli vastava tehnoloogiaga välja juba eelmisel aastal.
- Üle 25% on eelturul plussis iiri farmaatsiafirma Elan (ELN), firma neljanda kvartali kahjum oli oodatust väiksem, lisaks teatati uue ravimi loa taotlemist.
RevShark:
Success in almost any field depends more on energy and drive than it does on intelligence. This explains why we have so many stupid leaders."
-- Sloan Wilson
There are a lot of folks who wonder about the intelligence of this market, but the more important question for us to contemplate is whether there is sufficient energy and drive to keep the rally running. We can ponder valuations, the economic picture and a wide variety of other factors, but the only thing that matters in the end is the intensity and conviction of market participants. If they want to be in this market badly enough, they are going to drive up prices.
So how do we go about gauging the energy and drive of buyers? The most obvious way is by price movement. If prices are going up, then there must be more demand than supply. However, to have a more complete picture of the level of demand we have to look at volume.
The ideal situation for the bulls is a market that rises on increasing volume. Strong volume not only is evidence of substantial demand, but when stock turnover is at a high level it usually means that stock has moved into the hands of new, stronger holders. That tends to create better support levels since someone who bought a stock yesterday is usually not inclined to sell it today on a slight pullback.
When stocks increase in price on good volume, the move tends to feed on itself. The higher the volume, the less inventory that is available and the more anxious folks on the sidelines are to join the party. That is what momentum is all about. It feeds on itself as it builds.
My major concern about recent market action is that we don't seem to have the drive and energy needed to really produce the sort of momentum that pushed us throughout this rally. We have had plenty of good news lately, including Alan Greenspan's soothing words about interest rates and the merger frenzy, but that has not produced the sort of jump in volume that would indicate a burning desire to be in this market.
The Nasdaq had a nice percent gain yesterday, but volume was the lightest so far this year. If the news was so positive yesterday, why wasn't there greater volume? Why weren't big funds putting money to work? Do they not have the cash or were they not inspired enough to invest it? It's one or the other.
We simply can not be as trusting of moves on light volume. The market may continue to run, but the odds of a sustained move are lower. That doesn't necessarily mean the market is going to roll over and go down, but we have to be skeptical about its ability to move higher.
We have a positive open shaping up once again. Rambus (RMBS:Nasdaq) and Intel (INTC:Nasdaq) are leading the charge in the chip group. Europe in strong and Asia is mixed. The dollar continues its decent as the euro hits record highs.
It is going to be very interesting to see if the market can produce a follow through, even though volume is questionable. I'm not going to fight it. I'm buying long positions, but I'm not going to be very trusting.
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Rodman & Renshaw upgrading RGEN to Mkt Perform from Underperform
üks kahest RGENi analüütikust usub, et halvim on möödas. -
GRAAFIK ON PALJULUBAV. VEEL 12 AASTAT KÜLGSUUNAS JA PENSIONI KOGUMIST JA ÜLEJÄÄNUD SUURE SUMMAGA üles, KUNI P.PÕLVENI VÄLJA.
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dollar on pärast 1.28 murdmist ikka eriti jõhkralt tugevnenud - praegu juba EUR suhtes 1.2680, ehk 12.36 krooni suhtes.
