Börsipäev 2. -3. märts - dollar rallib
Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse
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- Peale eilset tugevat tõusu on USA aktsiaturud avanemas miinuses. Nasdaqi futuurid sisuliselt nullis ning S&P 500 futuurid 0.2% miinuses. Eilsed head uudised ostujuhtide optimismi osas vajavad kinnitamist tööjõuturu poolt, järgmine verstapost on seega reedene tööjõuraport.
- Täna avaldatakse veebruari autodemüügi näitajad. Lisaks on Alan Greenspan pidamas New Yorgis kõnet Economic Club`s, milles põhjendab jooksevkonto defitsiidi suurust.
- General Electric (GE) nõukogu esimees Jeff Immelt teatas eilsel aktionäride koosolekul, et ootab Ida Euroopa, Venemaa ja sõjajärgse Iraagi ülesehitustöödest saadavat käivet 2005 aastla 5 miljardi dollari suuruseks. See tähendab kolmekordset tõusu.
-Pooljuhtide sektorisse tuli üle pika aja taas rõõmustavaid sõnumeid. Kõrgemad reitingud said nii Texas Instruments (TXN), Micron Technology (MU), Fairchild Semiconductor (FCS).
-Dollar suutis ööga taas uusi tippe murda ning hetkel euro vastu 0.5% plussis tasemel 1.2384 usd/eur.
Gary B. Smith:
Rev Shark:
Due to its complexities, mood swings and arbitrary nature, the stock market begs for constant analysis and study. Professionals with MBA's and Average Joe's with six-packs are always ready to offer their opinions as to where things are headed. Predicting the market future is an intriguing and addictive activity that is not only an entertaining pastime but a giant industry.
The danger of constant market evaluation and analysis is that it can freeze us into inaction. While we wait for things to play out as envisioned, we sit back, focus on the big picture and ignore the opportunities that flit across our screens.
This phenomenon is sometimes referred to as "analysis paralysis." The inclination to evaluate constantly rather than act can make an investor feel safe and secure but it rarely is highly profitable. The only way we are going to make good money is to act. When opportunities arise, you must be willing to attack and take advantage of them. If you are wrong and are burned you lick your wounds and attack again.
Of course, effective attacks require good planning, but the market has a habit of moving before we feel ready. It happens to me constantly where I envision the market moving in a certain way and then it begins to play out before I am ready. As I make mental adjustments I miss out on the early opportunities that are often the best. Make sure you engage in planning and analysis, but maintain an offensive mindset. Those who are willing to pounce on opportunities are the ones who make money.
The paradox of the market is that success requires a balance between patience and action. Don't focus so much on preparation and strategy that you fail to move quickly and decisively. One of the most frustrating things about the market is that it never does exactly what we think it will.
So we have to be ready to modify our plans and be quick to attack when conditions are right. The best investors know when to be passive and when to be aggressive. Cultivate patience but also learn to attack quickly and relentlessly when the time is right, and you will profit.
Although I remain ambivalent about overall market direction I found myself attacking a number of positions yesterday. The broad strength on low volume wasn't what I envisioned but it would be foolish for me to forego the opportunities that were popping up. I could continue to analyze future market direction or jump in and make some trades. No matter how skeptical I may be about the health of this market I'm prepared to attack aggressively when good trades appear.
This market is sending a very mixed message. There are some signs of health, such as the very positive breadth and the potential triple top breakouts in the Russell 2000 and the S&P 500. However, there are some things to be concerned about as well, such as the meek volume, strength in heavy cyclicals such as steel, oils and homebuilders, and the poor relative strength of many technology stocks.
The Nasdaq managed to move over its 50-day moving average yesterday but it did so on a low-volume bounce off the 2000 support level. It certainly can keep on moving but it is very vulnerable to a quick reversal. If it spends some time consolidating above the 2050 mark it will be very healthy but the possibility of a pullback is high.
Market participants are focusing very heavily on the monthly employment numbers due out on Friday. The bulls are looking for job growth to finally kick in and break this market higher. The bears are expecting another lackluster report to keep the pressure on the market and if numbers are good they look for concerns about increasing interest rates to keep a lid on things.
In the meantime we have a pretty good trading environment. There has been quite a bit of action in certain areas and there definitely are some hot money traders willing to chase strength.
Early indications are close to flat. The dollar is rallying, which is helping Japanese exporters, but indices are mixed as financial stocks struggle. We have vehicle sales data out today but little else of interest on the agenda.
Chip stocks put in an impressive reversal yesterday on a downgrade. We'll have to watch them again for clues as to health in tech land. Breadth will be very important, of course. Strong breadth can make up for a multitude of other sins.
Be ready to attack if you see opportunities.
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Nagu ka eile (ja üldse päris tihti) tasub vaadata pooljuhtide liikumist, eile suudeti pärast Inteli downgrade'i plussis lõpetada ja sektori hea käitumine negatiivsete uudiste peale oli positiivne märk kogu turule. Vaatame kuidas täna heade uudiste peale reageeritakse.
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Dollar on viimase poole tunniga ülikiiresti tugevnenud, praeguseks on kurss juba 1.228 EUR/USD, krooni suhtes USD 12.75 koguni.
Veidi pikemat graafikut vaadates näen ma esimest tugevat alles 1.18 juures, see teeks USD/EEK kursiks 13.25. -
See teeks Eesti telekomi hinnaks kuskil 125 eeku.
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12:37 Hearing that "significant findings from Mars" will be announced in press briefing at 2ET at NASA headquarters
Kõik SPACEHAB (SPAB)-i ostma! :)
sB -
Kuuldavasti leiti Marsilt vett
sB -
Dollari nii kiirele tugevnemisele on raske midagi muud põhjenduseks leida kui tehniliste tasemete langemine. 1.235 usd/eur tasemest läbimurdmine tähendas uute toetustasemete otsimist. Varasemad tipud olid 1.19 usd/eur tasemel ehk õhku on vahel palju.
Dollari tõus andis löögi USA aktsiaturule ning eriti võlakirjaturule. Spekulatsioonid, et reedene tööjõuraport on hea ning lubab intresse tõstma asuda tõid võlakirjade hinnad alla. 10 aastase riigivõlakirja intress kerkis eilselt päeva põhjalt 3.939% tänaseks 4.054 protsendile. -
LOOK, mis vahepeal tekitas juba masendust, tõi täna päris meeldiva üllatuse :))
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One word - MAMA!
sB -
Pro idee GLBL, mis sai 5.02 pealt 2 nädalat tagasi pani täna turu avanedes 5.60 kinni, 11,5% tootlust tundus OK
Praegu maksab see juba 6.22, :(
Euro dollari vastu on DailyFX lehel mainitud vōimalikest päevasisestest olulistest tehnilistest toetustest iga väga palju kaugemale jōudnud, 1,2292 oli seal viimane, :) -
sB, väike korrektsioon. Mitte ei leitud vett, vaid tõendeid, et vesi oli kunagi seal. Allikas on siin - Opportunity Rover Finds Strong Evidence Meridiani Planum Was Wet
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Täna oli MAMA päev, homme ruulib BABY! :)
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Ei, enne vist ikka ISSI.
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Kusjuures nii ISSI kui BABY sümbolitega on võimalik ka reaalselt kaubelda :)
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Murzilka, bingo! :)
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MAMA rallies in pre-market
Appears that momentum players are going after the hedge fund shorts by taking advantage of the thin trading conditions that exist in pre-market to run the stock. MAMA shares currently trading up 18% from yesterday's close. -
Nagu üks turuosaline eile ütles "never mess with MAMA".
Ning veel üks kommentaar : "That's not to say the bulls are gonna be grasping air as there's still alotta speculative excess out there in the city of critters. Proof positive? Give your MAMA a call (Mammacom (MAMA:NASD) and check out the price action. I'm not commenting on the stock (I would never insult my MAMA), I'm simply noting that 100% price swings aren't necessarily healthy. It's not actionable, per say, just notable. Duly noted. " -
- 3. märtsi USA börsipäeva alguseks oli dollar veelgi jõudu kogunud ning eilsetes sulgemishinnast oldi taas 0.5% kõrgemal tasemel 1.215 usd/eur. Aktsiaturgudele paistab dollari tugevnemine negatiivselt mõjuvat ning futuuride põhjal võib oodata 0.5% miinuses avanemist.
- Turgudel väga suuri liikumisi oodata ei ole, Euroopas oodatakse neljapäevast Keskpanga intressideotsust (suur tõenäosus intresside alandamise osas) ning USA-s on pilgud reedesel tööjõuraportil.
- Disney teatas, et plaanib eraldada nõukogu esimehe ja firma juhi ( CEO ) tööpostid, mis hetkel mõlemad on Michael Eisneri käes. Firma kauaaegset juhti üritavad pikemalt ametist kõigutada kaks suuraktsionäri
-Eelturul on pea 17% plussis farmaatsiafirma Ligand Pharmaceuticals (LGND) aktsia. Firma neljanda kvartali kasum oli 5.9 miljonit dollarit võrrelduna aastataguse 6.7 miljoni dollarise kahjumiga. Firma suutis tulusid kahekordistada ning kõik tänu valuvaigistile Avinza.
Gary B. Smith:
Rev Shark:
Stock markets tend to go through cycles, reacting to various themes at various times. If you can grasp what the key concern is at any particular time, your chances of success are much greater. You can better understand how stocks will move if you know what is driving the emotions of investors.
It isn't always easy to determine the primary concern of the market because the focus can shift quite quickly. Within the past year we have seen the primary driver of the market shift from the war in Iraq to economic growth to earnings reports to the weak dollar to job growth and various other things at various times.
Right now the main concern of the market is interest rates. Everyone knows that they are bound to rise sooner or later; the issue is simply one of timing. Back on Feb. 6, Alan Greenspan spiked the market sharply with comments that interest rates were likely to stay accommodative for some time. Yesterday his typically vague comments were seen as a possible hint that rates might rise sooner rather than later.
A sharp rally in the dollar yesterday was also viewed by many as a sign that interest rates may be about to increase in the near future. When interest rates rise in the U.S., the dollar becomes more attractive for foreign investors. A lot of multinational corporations have been benefiting from the weak dollar, so the reversal in currencies creates pressures.
What investors are most worried about right now is a strong jobs report on Friday finally triggering interest rate increases. For the most part an increase in jobs is seen as inevitable. It has taken longer than many have expected, but with virtually every aspect of the economy showing improvement, most believe jobs growth to be a done deal.
An increase in jobs as viewed as so inevitable that the market is more concerned about the impact on interest rates rather than what it says about the health of the economy. The market is a cold-hearted beast that cares far more about growth in profits than growth in jobs. Unemployment is not viewed as such a terrible thing if there continues to be strong growth in other areas of the economy.
We will have to stay focused on how emerging events affect the perception of interest rates. That is the theme that matters most right now. Earnings, valuations and politics will all take a back seat.
In addition to interest rates, the technical picture of the market is a bit troubling. The Nasdaq found support at the 2000 level but then bounced on low volume right to key resistance at around 2053, which is the 50-day simple moving average. After spending a few hours at that level the index was unable to hold. It sold off broadly and on higher volume to conclude the day.
That leaves us in no man's land once again. The 2000 level beckons from below, and the 2050 area looks like a much higher hurdle than it did yesterday. The likelihood is that the jobs report on Friday and the Intel (INTC:Nasdaq) midquarter update Thursday evening will be the catalysts that move us out of this range.
We have some tough trading in front of us the next couple of days. I've been a bit more aggressive the last few days but am shifting to a more defensive posture while I wait for things to clarify further. I'm concerned about that 2000 level. If that is breached we will have the biggest technical breach since this market started rallying a year ago.
We have a weak open shaping up. Overseas market were weak as the dollar continues to rally. Are there buyers willing to take advantage of a soft open? We shall see but this looks like a market that is shifting to a sell-the-rally mindset from buy-the-dip thinking.
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MAMA pea juba 50% plussis.Mulliga tegu voi on midagi all ka?
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LHV Pro all kaks värsket ideed kauplemiseks.
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IRW BABY! Ma ei mõelnud seda tõsiselt. Eesti keele oskajaid on kahjuks vähe maailmas ja seega ISSI veel ei ralli. :)
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Alvari soovitus BABY suhtes läks kümnesse(eile sulgus 4,77-täna "high# 6,36).
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Homme võiks SONS liikumisi jälgida.
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ja põhjus võiks olla ???
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Alati ei peagi 1:1 põhjust olema. SONS puhul püüdsin lihtsalt jätkata liini MAMA-BABY-SONS...
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kristjan eilse avalöögi põhjal kas nas 2000 pealt tuleb jälle põrge siis üles ja see langev kolmnurk murtakse ikkagi ülespoole läbi
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Uh, õnneks müüsin eile MAMA lühikese possu ära....
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one word- Futuremedia (FMDAY)
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TISA-t ja BABY-t tasuks j2lgida.Ei usu ,et t2nase p2evaga veel mullid lohkevad.
