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Börsipäev 4. märts

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  • -USA turud on avanemas kerges plussis. Osaliselt mõjutajateks Euroopa ja Jaapani turgude tõus, teisalt jällegi USA jaemüüjate tugev müügikasv.

    - Hispaania telekomioperaator Telefonica (TEF) on läbi rääkimas BellSouth ´ga (BLS) ostmaks viimase Ladina Ameerika mobiiliüksuseid. Varade väärtuseks on 5.5 kuni 6 miljardit dollarit. Bell South on sunnitud varasid müüma, kuna AT&T Wireless ost vajab finantseerimist (BellSouth on Cingulari üks omanikest).

    -Töötu abiraha taotluste arv kahanes eelmisel nädalal 7000 võrra 345 000 peale, mis vastas ka prognoositule.

    - Inteli (INTC) aktsiale peaks täna oodatust rohkem tähelepanu koonduma, kuna peale turgude sulgemist avaldab firma oma kvartali vahearuande.

    - Wal Mart (WMT) on taas positiivse tähelepanu all, firma müük kasvas aastataguse veebruariga võrreldes 14% ehk 20.2 miljardi dollarini. Võrreldavate poodide müük kasvas 6.2%.

    Gary B. Smith:

    Rev Shark:

    The importance of planning is a clich?. We all know that we are likely to improve our investing and trading results if we engage in some preparation and planning. The cruel irony of the stock market is that it seldom does exactly what we anticipate. Even when we prepare for multiple scenarios, Mr. Market has a way of coming up with something creative that we hadn't thought about. 

    That doesn't mean we should forego strategic planning. The process of planning is extremely valuable even if you never actually use your plans. Imagining how events will play out and the markets' reaction to them makes it much easier to react when events unfold. Developing a mindset where you understand the dynamic nature of the market and are ready to amend your course of action as events unfold can pay off big. 

    Even if you never use the plans, you perfect the process of developing them, and having the mindset to implement them will make a huge difference in your trading results. You never know what will happen in the heat of battle but if are mentally prepared for anything you have a big advantage. 

    I bring up the issue of strategic planning this morning because we are heading into some news after the close that is likely to have some dramatic impact on the market. First is the Intel (INTC:Nasdaq) midquarter update after the close tonight. 

    Over the past year or so Intel has been offering up very strong guidance. However, this time there are analysts who aren't expecting things to be quite so upbeat. The market seems to agree and the stock has been struggling. The question now is whether the market has already priced in lowered expectations. Are the chip stocks ready to find some support or will Intel be the catalyst to accelerate them to the downside. The Philly Semiconductor Index (SOX) is in a very precarious position and a breach of the 490 level will be a major negative. 

    The second piece of news that we need to plan for is Friday's employment report. Expectations are fairly highly that the numbers will surprise to the upside. There are a number of factors to consider when trying to gauge the impact of this report: Will a strong number raise interest rate fears? Will a weak number create concerns about the economy? Will an in-line number disappoint the bulls, and will a not-too-hot and not-too-cold report attract buyers? 

    I don't know the answer to those questions but I do know that we should think about how we prepare. What do we want to buy and what do we want to sell if things start to move? Should we trust a rally on the news? Is there technical support for the market to rally big? 

    Prepare, but also be ready to react. I don't know how things will play out but I do know that it won't be exactly like we have planned. 

    We have a slightly positive open shaping up. Like yesterday we are mostly on hold as we wait for the big news events. Overseas markets were generally positive. The dollar mixed and oil and gold are up slightly. 

    Retail same-store sales reports are hitting and so far look very good. I see about 30 reports so far and only one, Bombay (BBA:NYSE), has missed consensus estimates. The consumer is obviously holding up very well. We'll have to watch this sector to see if it can build on the news.

  • Äraütlemata teravmeelne kommentaar ühelt turuosaliselt:

    Given his experience in Fantasyland, I think Elmer (Alan Greenspan) would have been a candidate to succeed Eisner at Disney (DIS:NYSE)
  • Inteli eelvaade:

    15:12 INTC Mid-Quarter Preview (29.57 +0.53)

    Intel is scheduled to hold its mid-qtr update after the close at 5:30 PM ET today. It seems the expectations regarding the co's guidance are relatively low, with a majority of analysts expecting the co to narrow its rev guidance of $7.9-$8.5 bln (down 3-10% QoQ) to $8.3 bln (consensus), instead of guiding up, and expecting the co to maintain gross margin guidance of 60% plus or minus few points. Over the past few weeks there have been concerns regarding excess laptop inventory resulting (which JP Morgan cited in their March 1 downgrade), yet BofA said the weakness in notebooks reflects a short-term inventory correction and they maintain a positive outlook on CY04 notebook growth. Prudential notes in their preview that both Dell and HP, which together account for over 30% of INTC's revs, saw notebook growth that was significantly higher than overall PC growth in their Jan qtrs. On a final note, Wedbush (who called the last INTC mid-qtr update spot-on in Dec) said this is a rare case when merely guiding to consensus of $8.3 bln in sales and $0.28 in EPS will rally the stock.
  • Raisio teatas, et müüb kemikaaliüksuse teises või kolmandas kvartalis. Ootan ära täpsemad numbrid ja otsustan, et kas aktsia väärib edasihoidmist.

    Rene

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