Börsipäev 12. märts - põrge, aga kui tugev? - Investeerimine - Foorum

12.03.2004 16:26

-USA futuurid on plussis ning Euroopa turud on samuti USA turgude avanemise eel plussi pöördunud.

-MCI vaatas üle oma 2000 ja 2001 aasta finantsaruanded ning vähendas maksude eelset kasumit 74.4 miljardi dollari võrra (!). Firma endine nimi oli WorldCom (WCOEQ) ning tuntuks sai kaugsideoperaator 11 miljardi dollari suuruse raamatupidamisskandaaliga. 2003. aasta finantsaruandega alles tegeletakse ning pankrotikaitse alt loodab firma vabaneda aprillis.

-Oracle (ORCL) teatas oma eelmise kvartali kasumi 11% kasvust, kasum küündis 635 miljoni dollarini ehk 12 sendini aktsia kohta. Järgmise kvartali osas ollakse ettevaatlikud. Siiski loodetakse kasumit aktsia kohta 17-18 senti ehk 6-10% aastatagusest rohkem. Käibe kasvuks prognoositakse 5-10%.

-Ravimitootja Novartis (NVS) kinnitas oma huvi Aventise (AVE) ülevõtmiseks. Varem oli Aventis tagasi lükanud 60 miljardilise ülevõtmispakkumise, mille tegi väiksem konkurent Sanofi.

Gary B. Smith:

Rev Shark:

Being cautious and conservative certainly isn't as exciting as making big bold aggressive bets, but grand gestures tend to work better for French emperors than traders trying to earn a living. If failure destines you to a lonely death on a remote island, the torment of precaution may not be such an onerous thing after all.

I have preached this often and forcibly but in the current market environment it bears repeating. Your No. 1 goal as a trader is to stay in the game and you stay in the game by protecting your capital. The stock market is an endless fount of opportunity and all that is required to profit eventually is to persevere and have enough capital.

Nothing is more important than protecting your capital when times are tough. It doesn't matter how great your stock-picking skills are or how fantastic your trading methodology is. If you don't have sufficient trading capital it is all for naught.

You will find many politicians, entertainers, entrepreneurs and a variety of other successful people who have done well by making bold bets and taking big chances. It is the stuff of legends and holds great appeal to all of us who thirst for a little glory.

However, there are certain endeavors where the path to success is better climbed by slow and steady progress. Just like it's possible to win the lottery, it is possible to make a fortune through big, risky stock market bets. However, the risk of impairing your capital and being taken out of the trading game is such a high price to pay that we have to think very carefully about the odds of success.

This past week has been an extremely difficult one and the likelihood is that we will have more tough times in the weeks ahead. There is great temptation to take aggressive action in anticipation of a quick turn in the market and in certain situations it can make sense to do so. However, make sure that in the event you are wrong you do not lose so much capital that it inhibits your ability to be a successful trader in the future.

The ultimate goal of all market participants is to make money but the only way to do that is to have the capital to stay in the game. Keep that in mind as you consider your trading decisions.

Market tone has been steadily improving this morning. Overseas markets are off their worst levels. They are still negative but strength in technology stocks is dampening the pain.

Contrarian investors are eyeing the spikes in the put/call and ARMS indices as possible indications that a bounce is due. We have had big, broad selling for a few days now and the meltdown to finish the day yesterday smacked of a little panic. That is the sort of action that often leads to a bounce as bargain hunters start to accumulate their favorites. Once the buyers step up, it tends to attract more buyers and brings in short-covering. The end result is a strong bounce. We have the dynamics in place for such a move today and we will have to watch very carefully to see if it develops.

Dell (DELL:Nasdaq) is helping out a bit this morning. It has upgrades from JP Morgan and Morgan Stanley and is indicated up about 75 cents in the early going. We have had some very hard hits in the technology sector and it is going to be interesting to see if the bargain hunters are ready to start nibbling.

Keep in mind that we have some major technical damage out there. Even if we do see a big bounce we have to remain on guard. The likelihood that we will pull back again are very high.

Teata ebasobivast posititusest

12.03.2004 16:32

upser

kõik ootavad suurt põrget, äkki jääb ära

Teata ebasobivast posititusest

12.03.2004 16:44

kristjan.lepik

Ootavad tõesti, tuleb arvestada ka sellega, et praegusel ebakindlal ajal pannakse positsioonid ilmselt enne päeva lõppu kinni (ei hoita üle nädalavahetuse), see võib tähendada päeva lõpus taas müügisurvet.

Teata ebasobivast posititusest

12.03.2004 16:50

Alvar

Üks tänane suur tõusja on Sento (SNTO)!

Teata ebasobivast posititusest

12.03.2004 16:51

yanek

miks müügisurvet
äkki pannakse lühikesed positsioonid kinni

Teata ebasobivast posititusest

12.03.2004 16:54

kristjan.lepik

Praegusel turul pole kindlasti veel lühikesed positsioonid ülekaalus, seega pigem ikka müügisurve.