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Börsipäev 17. märts

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  • Eile peale börsipäeva lõppu teatas Goodyear (GT) et ei jõua õigeaegselt esitada 10-K aruannet, põhjuseks raamatupidamise uurimine ettevõtte Euroopa ja teistes väljaspool Ameerikat paiknevates allüksustes, aktsia eelturul -5,78%.

    Täna hommikul on Smith Barney ja First Albany kergitanud Yahoo! (YHOO) reitingut, aktsia eelturul +4,21%.

    Täna homikul avaldatud tarbijahinnaindeksi kasv veebruaris on 0.3%, mis vastab ootustele. 

    Gary B. Smith:

    RevShark:

    Man's unhappiness, as I construe, comes of his greatness; it is because there is an Infinite in him, which with all his cunning he cannot quite bury under the Finite."

    -- Thomas Carlyle 

    Despite some positive action in the market yesterday the mood has become increasingly unhappy. I've been hearing more and more grumbling and complaining from traders lately. 

    For the first time in about a year the Nasdaq has gone over two months without making a new high. Even worse, we are still locked in a stairstep pattern downward and are showing few technical signs that a major turn is imminent. 

    Market participants have discovered once again that the indices do not have infinite upside no matter how good conditions may be -- and conditions are not that promising at the moment. 

    There is a major increase in macro concerns. The FOMC's comments yesterday about economic conditions contained more caution than the prior statements. That was good for bonds but may not be so great for equities. The bombing and election results in Spain has made terrorism a much more real concern for the market. That issue has been set aside for quite a while as the news focused on the war in Iraq. The political campaign is kicking off and it looks like a real battle may loom. 

    All of those things cause uncertainty and as we all know the market tends to struggle when there are too many unknowns lurking about. 

    The indices managed a bit of a bounce yesterday but weakness in biotechnology stocks and small-caps are graphic illustrations of how little momentum there is now. If you have been trying to catch an upside move lately it has been extremely difficult. There is very little upside follow-through and if you jump in a stock in the hopes it will attract additional buying, you have likely been disappointed. Strength in individual stocks has been inviting profit-taking rather than more buying. 

    However all the doom and gloom out there does have a silver lining. Throughout this yearlong rally the bears have been complaining about the high level of bullish sentiment. They kept reminding us that we shouldn't expect the market to keep going higher if everyone is already bullish and has used up their buying power. They apparently underestimated the amount of unused buying power out there and that was why they have been wrong for so long. 

    Things have now changed a bit, and the recent action has gone a long way toward tempering the ebullient mood. Concerns about valuations and a lack of positive catalysts are on the minds of many as the market struggles to find its footing. A more cautious mood coupled with some buying power would be a major positive for the bulls. 

    The bulls have been spoiled over the past year with a series of quick recoveries after pullbacks. It isn't happening this time and as a result frustration has grown very quickly. That helps create a particularly dangerous environment right now. We saw a good example Friday when the indices bounced sharply but then gave it all back, and then some, on Monday. 

    The technical support right now is minor and the mood, although negative, is not so poor that we can feel comfortable that we have washed out all the weak and scared holders. On the other hand, after the carnage of the past week we are oversold and with option expiry upon us the chances that we see a lift of some sort appears fairly high. 

    It is very dangerous out there. Be careful about rushing in to deploy your capital. The temptation to try to catch the bottom of this pullback is high but the likelihood of yet another failed bounce is extremely high. 

    In the early going we have a positive mood. The dollar is weak against the yen and that has helped Asian markets. Rising DRAM prices are helping technology stocks a bit. The economic and earnings calendars are quiet. 

    Buyers are showing some inclination to step up this morning but an aggressive posture carries substantial risks right now. Don't be so quick to jump on questionable opportunities that impair your ability to be aggressive when the odds are better.

    Futuurid: S&P500 +0,38% , Nasdaq +0,68%

  • Lucent (LU) teatas tarnelepingute sõlmimisest väärtusega üle $300 mln, aktsia vahetult enne avanemist eelturul +2,60%

  • Mõtteid:

    *** Nasdaq 2000 on endiselt üsna ähvardav lagi turu kohal.

    *** Päeva lõpp on väga oluline - indeksid on praegu väga tugevad, kui praeguseid tasemeid suudetakse hoida, on see hea märk edasiseks.

    *** Müügisurve päeva lõpuks tähendaks koleduste jätkumist.

    *** Reedel on optsioonireede ja seega tuleb arvestada lähipäevil kõrgema volatiilsusega. Ühtlasi on ka kvartali viimane optsioonireede, seega lõppevad ka futuurid. See tähendab kolmekordset optsioonireedet ja veelgi suuremat volatiilsust.

    *** Kui reeglina viimase tunni alguseks on indeksid liikunud terve päeva ühes suunas, siis läheb ka viimane tund samma auku.

    *** Liiguvad jutud, et homme enne börsipäeva avaldatakse lõpuks PPI (tootjahinnaindeks). USA administratsioon ei suutnud seda mitmeid nädalaid välja anda ja tekkis juba kahtlus, et varjatakse andmeid. Üsna suur korralagedus maailma suurima majandusega riigis.
  • Ja veel:

    *** Suur plahvatus Bagdadi kesklinnas hävitas hotelli Mount Lebanon, 41 vigastatut, 27 surnut. Huvitaval kombel turg ei reageerinud sellele üldse.

    *** Käive oli päeva alguses väga tugev, nüüd on lahjemaks jäänud. Kui tõusupäeval taas käive nõrk on, pole see hea märk.
  • Käive jäigi lahjaks, suur raha ilmselt ei ostnud kuigivõrd.
  • Kas tugev lopp loob aluse nasdaq2000 rynnakuks?
    Voi oli sobiv aeg lyhikeste positsioonide lisamiseks?
  • Ärge spekuleerige, turg teeb mis tahab, kedagi ei koti mingid plahvatused riigis, kus toimus sõda. Arvestage trend on üles, firmade näitajad head ja lähevad aina paremaks, OSTKE
  • kuidas sellega nüüd oligi - kui foorumites karjutakse OSTA, siis on aeg müüma hakata? :)
  • Varsti on uudis see, kui Iraagis ühtegi plahvatust ei toimunud :-)
  • varsti nii: Iraagis toimus viimasel kuul 6 plahvatust, konsensuse ootused olid 9 ja seetōttu tegu positiivse uudisega, :)
  • Keegi üleeile mainis, et
    "asi paistab ikka päris nutune olevat
    isegi mul hakkavad sarved peast maha kukkuma"
    ei viitsind sellest üleeile kirjutada, aga eks see sobi siia ka
  • Nii, eila oli Põrge-Cuanto, mis edasi...? Suund jälle alla, nagu õhukeset käibest võiks järeldada!?
  • Päev koosnes üsna vastuolulistest signaalidest - ühest küljest oli tõus laiapõhjaline ja põrge üsna korralik, kuid lahja käive (eriti tehnoloogiasektoris) näitab, et väga ikka ei juleta veel osta.

    Seega enne optsioonireedet oodata üsna närvilist suunaotsimist.
  • 12:28 Several explosions heard in Baghdad - nagu eespool juttu oli ei loeta seda enam uudiseks ega midagi

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