Börsipäev 23.-24. märts - põrkame?
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Täna hommikul Naz, SP futuurid 0.5% plussis, ühtegi konkreetset uudist selle taga ei ole.
07:20 CSCO Cisco Systems upgraded at Janney (22.35 )
Janney upgrades CSCO to Buy from Hold, saying the recent selloff in the stock creates a buying opportunity; as the share price has declined, firm says the co's core biz continues to show signs of improvement; firm also believes the co will continue to gain mkt share in several of its previously announced growth initiatives including home networking, wireless, security, and storage. Target is $26.
- Kui CSCO selle pisikese maja upgreidi peale ka turu avanedes tugevust suudab näidata, räägib see turu üldisest ostusoovist. Ja eks sellele aitab kaasa ka Pisipehme (MSFT) eilne comeback. Microsofti graafik on allapoole väga "väljavenitatud".
- Kuigi ise ei ole lugenud intervjuud, siis AMD juht andis positiivseid prognoose 2004. aasta teiseks pooleks. See on hoidnud täna hommikul pooljuhtide sektorit rohelises. Jällegi suhteliselt tühine uudis, kuid reaktsioon räägib enda eest.
- Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) sulgus eile ikkagi 200MA peal. Asi seegi.
fwiw,
sB -
Microsoft (MSFT) oli juba eile vedur mis turgu üritas üksi tõsta (Hercules), aktsia on lühiajaliselt tublisti ülemüüdud (soodustab põrget), kuid $25 tase praeguseks juba paras vastupanu.
Ilmselt võib täna ka MSFT suunda anda (eelturul + 0.8%) - hoidke radaril. -
Lisaks siis ka Realmoney arvamus.
Mr. Market has been dishing out some major pain to the bulls lately. Yesterday's action was particularly ugly, with a broad selloff on solid volume. The major indices are all struggling to find support. Unfortunately there isn't much to be found. There are good technical arguments to be made for this market to move much lower and there is even talk about how the bear market is reemerging.
The biggest problem for the bulls is that there is no positive news to be found. The international political situation, domestic politics, economic news and individual company news offer nothing positive to focus on. The bears are using this void to raise their concerns about valuations and how higher interest rates will eventually kill real estate, consumers and the market.
The bulls are left with little choice but to sit, wait and stay patient while these negative sentiment play out. Many bulls have strong convictions and are inclined to fight the tide. They are confident that things will improve and they want to take advantage of the current "irrationality." That approach can work very well if their timing is good, but if they are off they are sure to undergo some major pain and suffering.
Nasty downtrends like now create a great dilemma for bulls. The choices are clear: Do I take the pain of losses now and stop the suffering or do I endure and risk even greater pain and more suffering? The answers are far less clear.
The dilemma is such a difficult one that many are frozen into inaction and end up making their decision by default. They stay locked into positions and end up relying on hope that the downtrend will come to an end before their positions go to zero. The longer they stay frozen into inaction, the deeper they are buried and the more difficult it becomes to take any action.
At what point do you throw in the towel and stop the suffering? Is capitulation an acknowledgment and guarantee of failure? If you sell out and lock in your losses after weeks of suffering, have you lost the war?
No, you haven't. You may have lost a battle but the great thing about the stock market is that once you free up your capital, you have the ability to dive right back in and make up those losses. There is nothing to stop you from rebuying a stock that you just sold. There is nothing to prevent you from reinvesting your cash in new positions. Selling a stock and evaluating your choices with fresh eyes can be tremendously liberating.
Realizing that you don't have to sit and suffer while you watch your portfolio slowly crumble restores your sense of power over the market. Selling is a very powerful emotional tool that we have at our disposal and we should not hesitate to use it.
The key is to be prepared to do battle with the cash you raise. Selling in order to sit passively without a plan to make up losses will guarantee poor performance.
The sellers have stepped aside in the early going and we have a bit of a bounce shaping up to start the day. Overseas markets saw a little relief and are mixed. Chip stocks are seeing a boost on positive comments about future demand from Advanced Micro Devices (AMD:NYSE). The dollar is mixed and gold is trading down.
The action yesterday left the market oversold so a bounce shouldn't come as a big surprise. The real issue now is to what degree market sentiment has shifted to a sell-the-bounce approach. We shall see soon enough.
Gary B. Smith:
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PalmOne (PLMO) on tänane staar - eelturul +20% eilsete üsna võimsate majandustulemuste peale. Kahtlane muidugi kas siit enam osta tasub.
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Praegu põrge veel püsib ja väga oluline on, et püsiks edasi, sest kui ära vajutakse võib langus tulla kiire. Olulised toetustasemed sellisel juhul eilsed põhjad.
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Kristjan, äkki viitsid paari sõnaga seletada, mille järgi sa WFII välja valisid? Aitäh!
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Valitud sai tehnilise screenimise tulemusena, otsisin aktsiad mis oleks uue põhja teinud. $12 tase oli üsna tugev ja selle murdmine tõi hea võimaluse shortida. Selliste aktsiate puhul peab ka vaatama, et kukkumine poleks väga järsk olnud (poleks veel ülemüüdud), sest see võib tuua kiireid põrkeid.
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Ei põrka vist eriti??
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Põrge oleneb põrgatavast materjalist ja kuhu põrgatada. Olulisim- kui põrgatatav on veel poolel teel, ei saa põrgata.
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arvan, et täna pole materjal põrkeks veel küps, komme on kolmapäev ja siis põrkab! miks kolmapäev, sest eelmine kolmapäev oli viimane tõusu päev, seega homme täpselt nädal möödas, lisaks meenub et umbes 2 aastat tagasi olid kolmapäevad ka pidevalt rohelised sest muud päevad kukkusid nii ilusasti, et kolmapäev lausa pidi põrkama :)
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ja veel, et miks just kolmapäev on põrke päev.
sest: neljapäev juba mõeldakse, et nädalavahetuseks ei tohiks positsioone kätte jätta ja müüakse, reedel vaadatakse et nädalavahetuseks ei tohi kindlalt midagi kätte jätta, sest kes teab-
esmaspäev seeditakse grillipeo jutte suurtest hävingutest ja müüakse, et rahu saada. aga suts jäetakse ikka igaks petteks kätte kah, kes teab. teisipäev siis selgub, et kurat ei põrkagi ja müüakse se viimane.
kolmapäev siis saab juba madalalt osta, et siis nädalavahetuseks müüma hakata -
KML veerandfinaali otsustav kohtumine A le Coq-Kalev 73:71.
Coq võitis Rauno Pehka viimase sekundi viskega ja kui hooaja sees on mängud parajad jalutamised, siis täna anti küll kõik. Mäng nagu NBA-s!
Seega ilmselt suurima eelarvega meeskond (Kalev) juba veerandfinaalis väljas. -
algul üles ja siis päeva sees alla, oi see on mõnus!!!
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QQQ veidi põrkas eilsete põhjade pealt, eks ole näha kui kaua see kestab. Praegu on kaks võimalust:
1) üles-alla-üles päev, mis oleks kindlasti ka järgmisteks päevadeks positiivne;
2) eilsed põhjad võetakse välja ja karude tants algab.
Praegu on võimalused vast 50:50. -
Pehka sajandi vise
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Loodan n2ha nasdaqi 1800 peal.Praegu turg selgelt suur mull mis vajab lohkemist.
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Täitsa halb - kuigi paistis juba täiesti ilus päevalõpp, müüdi viimase 20 minutiga turg ikkagi võimsalt alla, pidama saadi alles päeva põhjade juures. Saved by the bell, ma ütleks.
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15:39 German president Johannes Rau cancels Djibouti visit after assassination plot warning - Reuters
mõned targemad turuosalised räägivad, et see oli selloffi põhjuseks. -
Ma kuulsin jälle, et suur 0.5 mlrd USD suurune müügiorder ja see lõi lumepalli veerema, kuid mis iganes oli põhjuseks, näitas see ostuhuvi jõuetust.
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Dollar euro vastu ka päris palju tugevnenud täna. 1.2200
US maj uudiseid ka kohe tulemas Mar 24: Durable Orders for Feb. (8:30 am), New Home Sales for Feb. (10:00 am) -
- Turud on neli päeva järjest langenud ning oleks juba viimane aeg põrgata, kui ei, siis on oodata kukkumist psühholoogiliselt olulistelt tasemetelt allapoole (Dow 10 000 ja Nasdaq 1900). Eelinfo on soodne.
-Veebruaris kasvasid kestvuskaupade tellimused 2.5% ehk rohkem kui oodatud 1.7% kasv.
-Microsoft (MSFT) sai Euroopa Komisjonilt lõpuks 612 miljoni dollarilise trahvi ning ta on kohustatud 120 päeva jooksul jagama teavet oma operatsioonisüsteemi kohta konkureerivatele serveritootjatele. Tulemused olid ootustele vastavad ning aktsia on praeguselt hinnatasemelt atraktiivne.
-Microsofti konkurent Linuxi arendaja Red Hat (RHAT) on eelturul 12% plussis, eile avaldatud neljanda kvartali tulemused olid positiivsed - kasum 5 miljonit dollarit ja käive 37 miljonit dollarit, aasta tagasi oli kasum 26 miljonit ning firma oli just nulli jõudnud.
-Valuutaturul tugevnes dollar euro vastu 1.2% 1.218 usd/eur tasemeni, samas kui jeeni vastu dollar veidi nõrgenes. Jeeni tugevuse taga on Standard & Poors otsus tõsta maa reitinguväljavaadet "negatiivselt" "stabiilse" peale.
Rev Shark:
Mr. Emerson's succulent guide to financial success is also a very good summary of ingredients needed for success in the stock market. Cool, calm logic, timely action and patience are the keys. Many traders possess great reasoning skills and are very adept at moving aggressively but have a difficult time when it comes to patience, especially in the current market environment.
To many market participants, patience seems contrary to what successful traders do. The perception is that successful traders are in constant motion: They are actively buying and selling and if they aren't it means they have failed. Good traders should be finding a constant supply of opportunities and making big bold moves on a regular basis.
Maybe to some extent, but it depends a great deal on your particular style. An intraday trader with a very short time frame obviously shouldn't cultivate the same level of patience as someone with a time frame of days or weeks. Those with a short bias need to wait out market rallies while those with a long bias need to wait out market pullbacks.
What makes the market particularly difficult is that effective trading requires both quick, decisive action as well as patience. We have to be prepared to sit and wait for long stretches and then act quickly and aggressively when the time is right. It can be a very hard transition to make. Those who are adept at staying patient often have a hard time acting boldly, and vice versa.
In this market, many of us have a hard time resisting the itch for action. We anxiously anticipate what will happen in the future and find ourselves implementing our battle plans before the time is right. We use up our ammunition and then when Mr. Market is most vulnerable we are incapable of taking advantage.
Even if you consider yourself an active trader, patience is a virtue you need to cultivate. That doesn't mean you do nothing; it means you make plans, plot strategy, stay vigilant and prepare to attack when the time is right. You might test the trading waters now and then, but if you conserve your cash ammunition wisely you will profit when the battle begins in earnest.
The big question this morning is how much further the market has to correct. The bad news is that we are still in a downtrend and exhibiting few signs of making a major trend change. The good news is that many stocks have already pulled back substantially. Of the Nasdaq 100 stocks, 56 are below their 200-day moving average, which is about where we were when the market bottomed out a year ago. Of course, the prices are a lot higher now but that is not an insubstantial correction.
Futures have been slowly improving so far this morning but investors remain wary, especially after another disappointing close yesterday afternoon. The hard work of patient preparation awaits us. Don't get lazy and act before the time is right.
Gary B. Smith:
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Jason Goepfert on välja arvutanud järgmist (positiivne järgmisteks päevadeks):
Fun fact of the day...there have been 18 times since 1985 when the NDX has been down 1% or more on Friday, down 1% or more on Monday, and down .5% or more on Tuesday. The next day the NDX was higher 15 out of the 18 times, for an average gain of 2%. After 5 days, it was still higher 15 times, with an avg return of 2.9%. The three times it showed a loss were 9/9/86, 10/20/87 and 10/3/00, all of which were "interesting" situations. -
Uute majade ehitus veebruaris 1.16 miljonit, oodati 1.1 miljonit.
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Dow 10 000 ja Nasdaq 1900 saabumas taas korraga, iga puudutusega muutub toetus nõrgemaks, seega oht on allapoole läbimurdeks suurenenud.
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AFP news is reporting that french police have found a bomb on a railway with several detonators. Hitting the European bourses a bit.
Sellest siis viimane müügisurve. -
Traderi kasutajatel soovitan alerte kasutada ja siis rahulikult pikutada. Nasdaqi (COMP) puhul võiks kasutada selleks 1900 punkti, kust tegelikult turg juba korra läbi vajus ja Dow (INDU) jaoks 10 000 punkti. Lülitage kõlarid sisse ja lootke, et saate rahulikult puhata!
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Jah, ma kasutan ise ka Traderis alerte päris palju, tihti isegi automaatse stopi asemel.
Lisaks valin välja mingi portsu aktsiaid, mis on küll head, kuid veidi liiga kiiresti tõusnud. Nii kui aktsia toetuse juurde tagasi vajub, annab alert teada. -
Bloomberg is now reporting that the bomb found in France was on the track not in a train and is similar to one found previously and not linked to Al Qaeda
Pomm oli seega üsna suvaline ja turg leidiski sellest kergendusest põhjuse põrkamiseks. -
pakun, et täna enam alla ei tulda
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Korralik põrge tõesti, kuid päeva lõpp saab määravaks edasise suhtes. Praegu on ülaltoodud eelmiste päevade tipud ka murdmata.
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peale turge tuleb MU ja sealt peaks pooljuhtidele toetus tulema
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kristjan anna nüüd üks korralik päevasisene kommentaar ka
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Nasdaq yle hulga aja turgu vedamas.
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Korralik? :)
Üks minu silmis üsna kõva turukommentaator (Bill Fleckenstein) kutsub Micronit (MU) lendavaks seaks. Et kui juba Micron tõuseb, siis võivad ka sead lennata. Aga eks ta ole alates 2000 aastast ka tehnoloogia suhtes üsna karune olnud (s.h. ka eelmine aasta).
Tõus on täna ilus ja ka käive paistab korralik. Kui eilse päeva lõpp oli üks võimalikest halvemaid stsenaariumeid, siis tänane ilus liikumine on üsna üllatav. Kuid eks turg sageli siis pöörab, kui seda eriti ei oodata.
Tehnoloogia täna tugev (oluliselt tugevam kui vana majandus) ja sektorite vaheline liikumine lähipäevil oluline.
QQQ 34.65 ja Nasdaq Composite 1930 on tasemed mida vaatan, kui nendest suudetakse kõrgemal sulguda, siis on eeldused tõusu jätkuks head. Kuid siiski olen ettevaatlik - tehniline laastamistöö on olnud tugev ja üks ilus päev seda kiirelt veel ei paranda. -
see oli very good
thanks -
Tuleks mainida ka dollarit, hetkel on € juba ligi 200 pipsi ära andnud! Good for me!
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Päeva lõppu jälle kübeke nõrkust, kuid olulised tasemed jäid püsima.
THC järelturul +5.5%
16:30 THC Tenet Healthcare reaches settlement with DoJ (10.28 -0.35)
Co announces that Tenet and certain of its subsidiaries signed a definitive settlement agreement with the U.S. Department of Justice and other parties that ends an investigation of certain physician employment matters at one Tenet hospital in Florida as well as a federal transfer-discharge inquiry that involved substantially all Tenet hospitals. The settlement agreement includes a total payment by Tenet of $30.75 mln. "The resolution of these two matters is an important step forward as Tenet works to rebuild its business and its reputation."
