Börsipäev 5. aprill - tööjõuraporti järelmõjud
Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse
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Futuurid hästi napis miinuses, tõsisem liikumine tuleb ilmselt börsipäeva alguses.
Kuid päeva staar on hoopis dollar, hetkel Euro vastu 1.2020 peal, kroonides tähendab see esimest korda pärast detsembri algust üle 13 EEK taset.
Järgmine toetus 1.1800 juures. -
just siis, kui analyytikud jõudsid hakata ennustama 1,45-1,5 taset....
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No just, ma mäletan, et kui eelmise aasta lõpus paluti Postimehe poolt 2004. lõpuks dollari kurssi ennustada, siis ma olin vist ainus kes üle 13 EEK pakkus. Postimehest siis helistati üle ja küsiti, et kas 14.20 pakkumine mitte trükiviga pole :)
Aga eks aasta veel pikk ees, kuid ma usun endiselt, et USD EURi vastu tugevnemas on. -
-Reedene tööjõuraport oli väga tugev ning turg on taas tõusutrendi peal, ettevõtete majandustulemused peaksid saama seega uueks turu suunajaks ning ootused on selles osas pigem positiivsed.
-Esmaspäevale kohaselt anti ka täna teadasuurtehingust. JC Penny (JCP) teatas, et müüb oma Eckerdi nimelise apteegiketi 4.5 miljardi dollari eest. Saaki jagavad kaks konkurenti Kanada Jean Couto Group ja USA suuruselt teine apteegikett CVS (CVS).
-Eelturul on 6% miinuses Nortel Networks (NT). Kanada võrgutootja on huvi äratanud SEC järelvalveosakonnas ning see puudutab varasemaid majandustulemuste ülevaatamisi ja parandusi.
-Dollar on taas tõusu teel ning reedene tööjõuraport on dollari euro kursi kergitanud juba 1.2 usd/eur tasemeni.
-Sellel nädalal avaldab esimesena Dow komponentidest oma majandustulemused alumiiniumitootja Alcoa (AA). Tehnoloogiasektoris oodatakse Yahoo (YHOO) ja Genetech (DNA) tulemusi.
Rev Shark:
As we kick off the week, the question we must ponder is whether this market possesses the character and fortitude to march to new annual highs. Was the strong jobs report on Friday a significant development on which the market can build or just a temporary change in circumstances that will soon be forgotten as the market grapples with deeper problems?
The bears will tell us that the very strong jobs report is a negative for the market because it signals an increase in interest rates. Higher interest rates will hurt consumers as well as businesses that have been relying on cheap capital. Throw in the argument that valuations remains at "unreasonable" levels and all good news has already been discounted by the market, and the bears feel confident about their positions.
The bulls will argue that the strong jobs report is confirmation of a booming economy. Sure, interest rates may edge up, but they are still at historic lows. Increased corporate earnings will more than offset the impact of a blip up in rates. The bulls believe that the bears are underestimating potential earnings. They also feel that if bonds start to fall as interest rates rise, money will be rotated into equities. The bulls feel confident that continued cash inflows as well as "conservative" earnings projections will hold this market aloft.
So who has it right? To some extent both sides are right, and we are going to battle back and forth in the months ahead. The bears are going to focus on interest rates and their consequences while the bulls are going to focus on economic growth and its consequences. Valuations will remain an area of disagreement just like they always have been.
The technical picture is mixed. The good news for the bulls is that we bounced back strongly in the last week and have moved back over the 50-day simple moving average in the major indices. The recent downtrend has been broken and the big-volume move on Friday bodes well for continued momentum.
The bad news is that we have quickly gone from oversold to overbought. The Nasdaq has moved up over 150 points over the past seven trading days and is need of some digestion and rest. The big "V" move indicates buyers want in, but the entry points are much tougher now after the recent move.
I continue to believe earnings season will have quite a few positives and I am looking for small stocks with strong earnings growth to perform well in the days ahead. The fact that we have had so few negative earnings preannouncements so far is a positive sign.
The ideal situation would be for the market to pull back some prior to the kickoff of earnings season next week and base out a bit. That would set us up nicely for another leg up. Of course, Mr. Market seldom makes things that easy, so we will have to wait to see what develops.
In the early going we have a flat open shaping up. There isn't much news out there other than the continued strife in Iraq. Asian markets were mostly higher overnight while Europe is mixed. Chip stocks are finding some buyers overseas. The dollar is strong and that is helping to push down oil and gold.
I'm still trying to find the hour I lost over the weekend. Buckle up -- it's likely to be a bumpy ride
Gary B. Smith:
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See JCP uudis võib kaasa tuua hoopis sell the news reaktsiooni, sest uudist oli oodatud juba päris kaua.
FWIW,
nägemus väga lühiajaline
sB
