Börsipäev 14.aprill-inflatsioon tõstab pead

forum.thread.abuse.button

4/14/2004, 4:05 PM

-Kaua oodatud ja kardetud inflatsiooni kiirenemine on USA-s kätte jõudnud. Märtsis kerkisid tarbijahinnad 0.5%, samas oodati 0.3% kasvu. energiahinnad kerkisid tervelt 1.9%. Positiivse poole pealt teatati USA kauvbavahetuse defitsiidi vähenemisest. Inflatsioonioht tähendab kõrgemaid intressimäärasid ning eile oli see aktsiaturu üheks peamise languse allikaks.

-Valuutaturul kerkis dollar euro vastu kohe peale tarbijahinnaindeksi avaldamist 1.198 usd/eur tasemeni, kuid sellele järgnes kiire põrge 1.19 usd/eur tasemeni.

-Intel (INTC) ei suutnud oma tulemustega ootustele vastata ning eelturul on aktsia 1.2% miinuses. Firma kvartalikäive oli 8.1 miljardit dollarit (aasta tagasi 6.75 miljardit) ning kasum 1.7 miljardit (aasta tagasi 915 miljonit). Teine kvartal on firmale ajalooliselt nõrk ning traditsiooniliselt jättis firma oma müügiprognoosi väga laia vahemikku, mille madalam äär viitab isegi kuni 6% käibe kahanemisele. Merrill Lynch kinnitas oma "osta" soovitust ning jättis 40 dollarilise hinnasihi muutmata.

-Dow suuremat langust aitab esialgu hoida keemiahiiu DuPont (DD) positiivne kasumiväljavaade. Teine Dow komponent McDonalds (MCD) on eelturul 2.3% miinuses. Firma märtsi võrreldavate müügikohtade käive kasvas 11.5%. Lisaks teatati, et kasum peaks küündima prognooside ülemisse äärde. Tugevaid tulemusi oodati ning nüüd võetakse kasumeid.

Rev Shark:

If the market didn't constantly present us with new challenges, problems and controversy, it wouldn't be so potentially lucrative. It is because it is such a difficult beat to understand that we can profit greatly when we succeed in dealing with the latest twists and turns.

Yesterday we saw a return to the "Bizarro" market. As those of us who wasted our youth reading comic books will recall, Bizarro Superman is Superman's exact opposite who lives in the upside-down bizarre world. He says hello when he leaves and goodbye when he arrives. He is immune to green kryptonite, but has other unexpected weaknesses.

In the Bizarro stock market, good news is bad and bad news is good. Strong economic data is a negative because it may cause interest rates to rise. Seeing weak earnings reports and economic data is good because that means rates may stay low for a while.

In the Bizarro world, the impact of a strong economy on the prospects of individual companies is irrelevant. All stocks suffer because rising interest rates are viewed as universally bad. We saw huge negative breadth yesterday as market participants dumped everything.

This environment is extremely difficult. Until the prospect of interest rate hikes is fully discounted, we will see good economic news greeted with a grimace. The difficulty is that we aren't going to have a clear sign as to when rates are fully discounted by the market. As the news flows, moods shift and prices change, the concerns over interest rates will change. As the bulls will tell you, interest rates are still at generational lows and an uptick is merely a reversion to the mean.

The technical action yesterday was downright terrible. Volume was fairly heavy and breadth was abysmal. The S&P 500 and the DJIA fell below their 50-day moving averages again, which is a warning sign. The Nasdaq remains the strongest of the indices. It is holding above its 50-day moving average and hovering above important support at 2017, but the downward momentum yesterday is worrisome.

Intel (INTC:Nasdaq) isn't doing much to help matters. Its earnings report was mediocre and the bulls and bears both have ammunition for their particular spins. Overseas markets traded down overnight. President Bush was strong and decisive in his press conference last night, but this is a market that is mainly concerned with interest rates.

We have a flood of earnings reports to come as well as economic news. March CPI is doing nothing to calm yesterday's interest rate fears. The numbers came in higher than expected at 0.5% vs. consensus of 0.3%, and excluding autos, 0.4% vs. consensus of 0.2%.

Bonds are taking a hit on the news and futures are weakening. This market is keenly focused on rates, and that is going to make for very tough going. It is going to be trickier than usual today. Good luck.

Gary B. Smith:

Lisaks ka üks mõte kinnisvarafirmade kohta:

forum.thread.abuse.button

4/14/2004, 4:12 PM

AloV

Panen hoiatuseks Eesti kinnisvaraarendajatele/spekuleerijatele üles USA 10 aastase võlakirja intressimäära iseloomustava indeksi TNX kuu aja graafiku. Jagada vasakus servas oleva väärtuse 10-ga, saab aimu 10 aastase võlakirja intressimäärast. Aprilli alguse toimus tööjõuraporti mõjul hüpe 3.9% 4.17protsendile. Täna on intressimäär juba 4.44 protsenti. Poole kuuga toimus seega hüpe 0.5% ülespoole ning see on alles algus.