Börsipäev 15. aprill - reaktsioon tulemustele - Investeerimine - Foorum

15.04.2004 16:19

-USA turud on avanemas väikese plussiga, kuigi Apple ja AMD tulemuste põhjal võiks eeldada isegi tugevamat tõusu.

-Dow aktsiatest avaldas majandustulemused Citigroup (C), firma kasum aktsia kohta ületas aastatagust tulemust 28 protsendiga küündides 1.01 dollarini ehk kokku 5.27 miljardi dollarini.

-Töötu abiraha taotluste arv kasvas nädalaga tervelt 30 000 võrra 360 000 taotluseni. samas kasvas tööstustegevuse aktiivsuse indeks New Yorgi piirkonnas aprillis märgatavalt.

-Apple Computer (AAPL) on eelturul 8% plussis, firma kasum on tugevalt kasvanud. Tugevad tulemused avaldasid ka AMD ja Texas Instruments (TXN).

Rev Shark:

If Dr. Einstein found income taxes to be puzzling I wonder how he felt about the stock market. At least we know when and to what degree Uncle Sam will extricate his pound of flesh. Mr. Market is a much more uncertain beast. What makes him so frustrating and dangerous is how fast his moods can shift. When things look the worst it is often a good sign but Mr. Market can be particularly cruel to those who try to anticipate what he will do next.

As the market continues to grapple with the consequences of a rising interest rate environment the big picture is extremely murky. Good economic news is being greeted with fear and the solid earnings reports so far have been lost in a sea of macro economic concerns.

The technical picture is becoming increasingly troublesome. The Nasdaq is the only major index still holding above its 50 day simple moving average. The S&P 500, DJIA and, most worrisome, the Russell 2000 have all broken that important level. The good news is that the longer-term trendlines are still intact but the downside pressure at this juncture is obvious.

One of the most striking developments in the last couple of days is the very poor breadth. The ratio of decliners to advancers on Tuesday was almost 7 to 1, which was the worst since Oct. 9, 2002, according to Investors Business Daily. That horrible breadth helped produce a major bottom but there is one big difference between now and October 2002. Back then the market had been in a multi-year downtrend. The poor breadth we are seeing now is coming after a year-long rally.

Breadth statistics, particularly on the NYSE, can be a bit misleading because of the number of listed entities that have attributes more similar to bonds than equities. It still is a matter of concern and we need to monitor it carefully for signs that the selling pressure is easing.

One development we should expect to see as the market adjusts to a rising interest rate environment is a rotation into stocks that are less interest rate sensitive. We have seen few signs of that so far. Market participants have been selling bonds as well as equities. That cash has to go somewhere and eventually we should see some sectors or groups emerge as the recipients of increased buying interest. My guess is that technology, drugs and health care stocks are the most likely groups to benefit from a rotation.

In the early going futures are close to flat. Overnight, Asian markets took a big hit as concerns about how rising rates might affect Asian exporters took hold. On the other hand European markets held fairly well.

We have a very interesting economic report this morning: the weekly unemployment figures. The market has been selling off as good job news hits so it is going to be a good test for how much the market has discounted interest rate concerns when this number hits. If it's weak and we rally it will be a good indication of how nervous everyone is about rates. If it's strong and we fall then it should be clear that we have further to go to price in higher rates.

No one every said this was easy. Good luck.

Gary B. Smith:

ja väike pilk võlakirjaturule...

Börsipäev 15. aprill - reaktsioon tulemustele

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